Stefan Struve (+115)
If you read our Battle of the Bales article, I’m simply doubling down for my picks. I don’t truly understand the odds of this fight. Stefan is coming off of three losses, but he doesn’t own any bad losses. Each of his last nine losses have come against high-level fighters, while he has won his “winnable” fights. His opponent, Marcos Rogerio de Lima, is in a similar situation, although he moved to heavyweight in his last fight. This bet is extremely simple for me. First, Struve will have a significant weight advantage, as he cuts to the 265 lbs. limit, while Rogerio de Lima will likely weigh less than 250 lbs. Second, Struve will have an extremely reach and height advantage. He’s nearly a foot taller than Rogerio de Lima, and he owns a 9.5” reach advantage. Struve hasn’t utilized his reach that well in the past, but it’s such a large advantage in this fight that Rogerio de Lima will struggle to find clean, power shots. Last, Struve is the more well-rounded fighter. He has the striking to keep this standing, but he also owns the grappling advantage. If Struve can avoid the power punches in this fight, there’s very little reason to believe he won’t come away with the victory.
Bet 1 unit on Struve to win 1.15 units
Gillian Robertson (-160)
This will be a fun fight between two young fighters in the women’s flyweight division. Gillian Robertson is a relentless grappler, who has found submission success in the UFC. Veronica Macedo is another young fighter, who has shown flashes of promise, but owns an 0-2 record in the UFC, although she has faced stiffer competition. I’ve been more impressed with Robertson, though, and she’s training out of American Top Team. I expect her to take another leap forward in her progression, although Macedo will likely take a step forward in hers, as well. I don’t believe Macedo has the takedown defense to keep this fight standing, though, and Robertson will be able to control the grappling exchanges on the ground. The props aren’t out yet, but Robertson inside the distance makes a lot of sense, as well, especially for better odds.
Bet 1.6 units on Robertson to win 1 unit
Thiago Santos (-110)
Thiago Santos against Jan Blachowicz is a true fight fan’s dream. Blachowicz has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu under Joe Moreira. Santos has a black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu as well, along with a black belt in Muay Thai and a green rope in Capoeira. Blachowicz’s greatest strengths should be neutralized by Santos’s background in BJJ and Muay Thai. Another benefit that Blachowicz tends to enjoy is having better cardio than his opponents, but that may not be the case this weekend either. Santos, since moving up to light heavyweight, has shown very solid cardio after being tested by Eryk Anders for three rounds. Santos opened as a heavier favorite (around -140), but Blachowicz quickly closed. This line should widen in favor of Santos as the fight nears, so make this bet before Saturday. Santos is not technically the better fighter, but he possesses the kind of pressure that is going to frustrate Blachowicz, and as long as his gas tanks withstands the few rounds it will take to wear down Blachowicz, he should find a finish.
Bet 1.1 units on Thiago Santos to win 1 unit
Parlay Bet
Parlay 1 unit on Thiago Santos, Stefan Struve, Michel Prazeres, and Damir Ismagulov to win 6.04 units
