Jack Hermansson (-130)
I was looking to make a few prop bets this card, but MyBookie doesn’t have them posted, and we simply can’t wait any longer for this article. If you read our Battle of the Bales article, you know how much I love Jack Hermansson this weekend. His opponent, David Branch, is a better version of Gerald Meerschaert, who Hermansson easily dispatched of in his last fight. The latter will hold a significant edge in the striking, and this fight may never find the ground. If it does, I expect that to be under Hermansson’s terms, as he has the edge in grappling. Branch has one advantage in this fight, and that’s his offensive submissions. He struggles when on his back, and it’s unlikely that he’s going to find advantageous grappling positions against Hermansson. Hermansson is also extremely heavy on top, while possessing elite ground and pound, which would stifle any potential submissions that Branch attempts. Branch will have a very specific gameplan in this fight, and as long as Hermansson can stay off of his back, which is likely, he’ll find the victory.
Bet 1.3 unit on Hermansson to win 1 unit
Michael Johnson (-120)
This play is all about fading Josh Emmett. Emmett is known for a brutal knockout against Ricardo Lamas, but that was a short notice fight in which he missed weight by 3.5 lbs. Besides that, he has three decent wins in the UFC, while losing to Desmond Green and getting brutally knocked out by Jeremy Stephens in his last fight. Emmett simply isn’t a high enough level of a fighter to fight the top options in the division. He’s somewhat known as a power striker because of the fight against Lamas, but that simply isn’t true. He’s a striker, who has wrestling. The same can be said for Michael Johnson, who focuses heavily on boxing, while using his wrestling defensively. Johnson dropped to featherweight after struggling at lightweight, going 2-1 in the division thus far. I don’t necessarily believe Johnson is going to challenge for a title in this division, but he has only truly lost to high level talent, and I don’t believe Emmett is that. Johnson should control the boxing exchanges, and his wrestling should be enough to keep this fight standing. He should win a relatively easy decision or potentially find a knockout at some point in this fight.
Bet 1.2 units on Johnson to win 1 unit
Paul Craig/Kennedy Nzechukwu U 1.5 Rounds (+100)
As noted in the MMA Battle of the Bales article, Kennedy Nzechukwu should pick up a victory over Paul Craig this weekend. Craig has three loses in his professional fighting career, two of which came via knockout to heavy-handed sluggers. Tyson Pedro and Kahlil Rountree knocked Craig out right before the end of the first round. More impressively, Craig has only ever won a fight outside of the halfway-mark in the second round once, and that was against Magomed Ankalaev, a fight he surely should have lost. All in all, Craig has 13 fights in his professional career, and twice he went over the ‘1.5 rounds’ mark. Nzechukwu has flashed impressive knockout power, especially in his last fight, which was aired on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series. He won that fight within the first two minutes. He will look to make quick work of Craig this weekend, and Craig, if he does find a way to takedown Nzechukwu, should submit him rather quickly. Either way, this fight should finish under 1.5 rounds.
Bet 1 unit on Paul Craig/Kennedy Nzechukwu UNDER 1.5 Rounds to win 1 unit
Parlay Bet
Parlay 1 unit on Jack Hermansson, Desmond Green, Kennedy Nzechukwu, Michael Johnson, Kevin Holland, and Alex Perez to win 11.53 units
