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Bea Malecki (-120)
Bea Malecki (2-0) and Duda Santana (3-0) are two young, inexperienced fighters who will step into the octagon this weekend. Both utilize their striking, and I don’t expect either fighter to take this fight to the ground on Saturday. Malecki is a Muay Thai champion, who will win the exchanges in the clinch this weekend. Santana, on the other hand, is a relatively weak striker, who simply uses volume to overwhelm her opponents. Her jab is relatively weak, and I expect Malecki to walk through it to find the clinch. Once there, she should have a significant advantage. I’m a bit worried about Santana scoring well on the judge’s scorecard, but Malecki will have the hometown advantage in Sweden. She’s the more refined striker, and for the odds, I’m willing to take a chance on that. I only wish I’d have researched this fight earlier in the week to get Malecki at plus odds.
Bet 1.2 units on Malecki to win 1 unit
Sung Bin Jo (-141)
Daniel Teymur has flopped in the UFC, and this seems to be his going away fight to allow a high upside prospect to get a relatively solid win on his record. Teymur is more or less in the UFC because of his brother, but his 0-3 record, including two submission losses, are a major blemish on his prior 6-0 record. Sung Bin Jo (SBJ) hasn’t fought the highest competition in the world, but he’s 9-0 with five (T)KOs and four submissions. He has flashed tremendous versatility throughout his career, including strong cardio, which could play a major role in this fight. I truly expect SBJ to outstrike Teymur on the feet, but he will have the grappling advantage to fall back on if that isn’t the case. SBJ has an elite ceiling in the UFC, and his versatility makes a strong option to finish this fight.
Bet 1 unit on Bin Jo by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission to win 1.15 units
Alexander Gustafsson (-305)
Alexander Gustafsson is going to wipe the octagon with Anthony Smith. He has better striking, he has better grappling, he has better cardio, and he has better finishing potential. Smith has been impressive over the last two years, and rooting for an underdog was fun for awhile, but it is about time he starts fighting realistic competition again. The only path to victory that Smith has is to pressure Gustafsson until he tires or quits. However, Gustafsson has a very impressive gas tank, and he is going to fall back on his wrestling and grappling if he feels uncomfortable at any point in the fight. If he feels confident, he will simply outstrike Smith for five rounds, which should result in him eventually finishing the fight. Smith is going to go for broke because he knows that this will be his last ‘big name fight’, which is good for Gustafsson’s inside the distance odds. He should finish this fight before the fifth round ends, and for plus odds, this is a rather safe bet. Smith will empty his gas tank around round three, and Gustafsson will force him to quit within the ‘main event rounds’.
Bet 1 unit on Alexander Gustafsson by KO, TKO, DQ, or Submission to win 1.1 units
Parlay Bet
Parlay 1 unit on Alexander Gustafsson, Tonya Evinger, Aleksandar Rakic, and Sung Bin Jo to win 3.39 units
