Paul Felder (+100)
If you read our Battle of the Bales article, you know that I’m all in on Paul Felder against James Vick. Felder has been one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC throughout his career, and his loss against Mike Perry may look bad on paper, but he took that fight on short notice and fought with a broken arm. Vick has failed to impress in two fights against high level fighters, and I expect that to be the case against Felder, as well. If Vick can’t keep Felder on the outside with his length, he’ll struggle to win the striking exchanges. I also favor Felder’s grappling in this matchup, giving him multiple avenues to win. I expect this fight to stay standing, and Felder is far too smart of a fighter to stay on the outside against a fighter like Vick. There aren’t props out on this fight yet, but I also like Felder ITD and under 2.5 rounds (+125).
Bet 1 unit on Felder to win 1 unit
Manny Bermudez (-190)
I do like Benito Lopez, but simply not in this matchup. Manny Bermudez is an elite submission grappler, but he displayed surprising power in his last fight. Bermudez doesn’t come with elite striking, but it’s good enough to open up his grappling against less than elite competition. While I feel Lopez is a solid prospect, he simply isn’t at the level he needs to be at to beat Bermudez. He should win the striking exchanges, but this fight should end shortly after it hits the mat. Bermudez has other worldly submission skills, and his ability to chain submissions together makes him nearly impossible to defend on the ground. While I think his lack of striking may hurt him against elite fighters, Lopez isn’t that at the moment. Bermudez inside the distance makes sense, as well, but those props haven’t been released at the moment.
Bet 1.9 units on Bermudez to win 1 unit
Cain Velasquez (-180)
Cain Velasquez is returning to the octagon for the first time since 2016, but he is still an elite talent, and while Francis Ngannou does have some of the most impressive knockout power the UFC organization has ever seen, Velasquez is veteran enough to avoid his heavy hands. With multiple paths to victory, Velasquez makes a lot of sense from a betting perspective. While it may be tough to judge whether this fight ends in submission, TKO, or via judge’s scorecard, the most likely scenario is that Velasquez is the winner. Ngannou cannot submit him, and he also does not throw enough punches for a decision victory to be very likely. Velasquez, on the other hand, can knockout Ngannou. As soon as he wins this fight, he will be in the championship contenders squabble. As noted in the Battle of the Bales article, the odds value is off here due to Velasquez’s long time off. Outside of another freak injury, this one should play out as expected.
Bet 1.8 units on Cain Velasquez to win 1 unit
Parlay Bet
Parlay .5 units on Cain Velasquez, Kron Gracie, Aljamain Sterling, Paul Felder, and Manny Bermudez to win 6.46 units
