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Eddie Wineland (-135)
Eddie Wineland hasn’t found much success in the UFC recently, losing each of his last two fights, but that has brought this line closer than it should be. His opponent, Grigory Popov, is a Muay Thai specialist, who owns elite leg kicks. He owns a 13-1 record, but that record is padded. Popov will see a disadvantage in the majority of the categories in a striking match, but his leg kicks are someone of an equalizer. If he can utilize them and stop Wineland’s movement, he could pose a problem similarly to Johnny Eduardo. With that being said, Wineland owns the advantage in technical striking, striking speed, power, and defense. Furthermore, Popov has struggled with takedown defense, and while he has a few submissions off of his back, I don’t expect him to find those against UFC talent. If worse comes to worse on the feet, Wineland could potentially take Popov down and win on the scorecards. Overall, Popov’s likeliest chance at a victory is via knockout, but Wineland has only been knocked out three times in his 37 career MMA fights. He’s simply the more experienced fighter, and this line is a bit too close for the talent disparity between these two fighters.
Bet 1.35 units on Wineland to win 1 unit
Aljamain Sterling (-125)
We get a discount here because of the matchup between “an exciting finisher” and “a boring fighter.” Pedro Munhoz is the former, while Aljamain Sterling is the latter. Keep in mind, I hate betting against Munhoz because of that finishing potential, but these odds are far too close. He’s coming off of two impressive (T)KO victories against Cody Garbrandt and Bryan Caraway. He owns a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, while possessing an elite guillotine choke. Sterling isn’t quite as decorated, but owns a brown belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Matt Serra. Sterling also possesses a wrestling background that he can generally fall on if all else fails. He doesn’t own the power of Munhoz, but he’s a significantly more defensive fighter, who doesn’t often get hit. Sterling also doesn’t allow his opponents to dictate that fight, as he won’t be drawn into a firefight. He has only ever been finished once, which was a brutal knee from Marlon Moraes. I don’t expect Munhoz to be able to finish Sterling, and the latter will be able to dictate this fight on his way to another decision victory.
Bet 1.25 units on Sterling to win 1 unit
Tony Ferguson (-150)
A couple of days ago, I tweeted out to bet Tony Ferguson at -139 on MyBookie. The odds have shifted slightly since then, and he is currently a -150 favorite over Donald Cerrone. These odds are still a little bit too close. By Saturday, Ferguson should be wider at around -200. As stated in the ‘Battle of the Bales’ article, Cerrone comes with recency bias. He has defeated three high-level fighters in impressive fashion since November of 2018. Ferguson, on the other hand, has not fought since October of 2018. That said, he has been training, and after this fight, he should finally get his shot at the championship. Both fighters have great gas tanks, but Ferguson has a way of frustrating strikers with his movement, and he also has added wrestling credentials. Cerrone is solid on the ground, but Ferguson will not fall victim to a submission attempt from the bottom. If he gets on top of Cerrone, it will be trouble for the new dad. There is no doubt that Cerrone is a threat in the lightweight division, but as far as competing inside the ‘elite circle’, he is going to get kicked out quick. This division belongs to Khabib Nurmagomedov, Dustin Poirier, and Tony Ferguson. After Ferguson defeats Cerrone, those three will figure out who the best in the world is. Hint: it’s Nurmagomedov.
Bet 1.5 units on Tony Ferguson to win 1 unit
Parlay Bet
Parlay 1 unit on Valentina Shevchenko, Tony Ferguson, Petr Yan, Tai Tuivasa, and Tatiana Suarez to win 3.56 units
