Kelvin Gastelum (+145)
These odds are simply off, and I’ll make the bet on that. Kelvin Gastelum is a fighter, who has been overlooked for the majority of his career. Israel Adesanya, on the other hand, is riding as big of a hype train as the UFC can possibly build him. It creates odds value. This is simply a matchup of a grappler against a striker. Adesanya is an elite-level kickboxer, who should be able to control the striking exchanges. Gastelum has had a history of wrestling success, while also owning a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu under Brian Beaumont. Gastelum also has decent boxing with knockout power. This fight comes down to whether or not Adesanya can keep this fight standing. If he can, he’ll have the advantage. If he can’t, Gastelum should win either a decision or via submission. The major difference between the two is that Gastelum also has a way to win on the feet, while Adesanya doesn’t have any potential grappling. At worst, this is a 50/50 fight, making Gastelum an easy value option.
Bet 1 unit on Gastelum to win 1.45 units
Jalin Turner (-125)
This is the perfect spot to fade Matt Frevola. He’s a fighter with strong cardio, and utilizes grit and effort to win fights. That can only get you so far. He was knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes in the first round in his UFC debut before drawing against Lando Vannata in his last fight. Jalin Turner is a fighter that has had mixed results in his career, and that has been the case in the UFC. He was knocked out by Vicente Luque in his UFC debut before knocking out Callan Potter in less than one minute in his next fight. This is another striker against grappler matchup, but this time I favor the striker. I simply don’t believe Frevola should be this close of an underdog, and Turner’s striking should lead to another strong knockout, assuming he can thwart the pressure and wrestling of his opponent.
Bet 1.25 units on Turner to win 1 unit
Belal Muhammad (-135)
Belal Muhammad is coming off a tough loss to Geoff Neal back in January, but throughout his career, he has shown a very impressive top control and ground-and-pound combination, along with a quickly developing striking game. The former evidenced by victories over Randy Brown and Jordan Mein, while the latter evidenced by his fight against Tim Means. This weekend, he will look to get back on track against Curtis Millender, who recently struggled to defend the takedown and submission attempts of Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos on his way to his fourth professional loss. It is the ease with which Santos took down Millender that is concerning for him heading into this fight. Muhammad is not necessarily “a wrestler,” but he has shown solid takedown offense. If he does end up on top of Millender, he may not necessarily finish the fight, but Millender will also not likely return to his feet until the round is over. Muhammad has a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under Daniel Wanderley, which will cause problems for Millender, as well. All in all, Millender’s 53% takedown defense rate is just not good enough going into a fight against someone with such great top control. I would not expect a Muhammad finish, though it could happen, but do expect the Muhammad win. His striking is good enough to keep him in it until the fight hits the mat.
Bet 1.35 units on Belal Muhammad to win 1 unit
Parlay Bet
Parlay 1 unit on Max Holloway, Montel Jackson, Poliana Botelho, Belal Muhammad, and Brandon Davis to win 6.82 units
