Cody Stamann (-200)
It’s time we take advantage of recency bias, and buy low on Cody Stamann. He’s coming off of a loss against Aljamain Sterling, who is an elite bantamweight. Stamann showed flashes in that fight, but ultimately lost via a modified kneebar, which was a bit unlucky. His opponent, Alejandro Perez, owns a 7-1-1 record in the UFC, but hasn’t fought near the competition of Stamann. Stamann is an offensive fighter, who stays active for 15 minutes. Perez is generally more patient of a fighter. Furthermore, Stamann is a high-level wrestler, who also has earned a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. Perez doesn’t have the takedown defense to keep this standing, and we’ve seen that Stamann is willing to attempt double-digit takedowns in any given fight. He should be able to grind out another decision behind his active hands and wrestling. I wouldn’t bet Stamann straight up at much wider odds than -200. At that point, he becomes a parlay hammer, but make this bet up until roughly -250, if the odds change.
Bet 2 units on Stamann to win 1 unit
Johnny Walker/Misha Cirkunov
I love attacking fights when two fighters have differing styles. Johnny Walker comes with elite power, and has finished both of his UFC fights via knockout in less than two minutes. Furthermore, Walker owns 14 first-round finishes in his career. Misha Cirkunov is also a known finisher, as five of his seven UFC fights have ended in the first round (two losses). Cirkunov has a questionable chin, which will play into the power of Walker. On the other hand, Walker doesn’t have the grappling credentials to stop Cirkunov if he gets this fight to the ground early. Each of these fighters have an average UFC fight time of less than five minutes, and this if a fight that should end in the first round. Assuming the odds come out, Walker in the first round or via (T)KO makes a lot of sense here, as I lean toward him quite a bit.
Bet 1.65 units on Walker/Cirkunov UNDER 1.5 rounds to win 1 unit
Cody Garbrandt (-145)
There is one other betting option that will not be mentioned in this article, and he provides quite a bit of value at his current line: Kamaru Usman (+130). That fight should be much closer to even than it is, but Cody Garbrandt is the much safer option. Garbrandt has only ever lost to TJ Dillashaw, and Pedro Munhoz, despite his impressive skill set, is not TJ Dillashaw. He has great BJJ, but Garbrandt should be able to keep this fight standing, and if it does stay standing Garbrandt will out-strike Munhoz until he knocks him out or the judge’s give Garbrandt the victory. “No Love” has been boxing since 15 years old, and he has displayed an impressive ability to not get hit (see Dominick Cruz fight, not TJ Dillashaw fights). Even if this fight does get to the ground, Garbrandt is powerful enough and possesses enough cardio to stand back up. John Dodson recently defeated Munhoz in a striking match, only getting taken down once. While Garbrandt will have to dial back the pressure, if he wants to increase his chances of staying on his feet, even with dialed back pressure, he could find a finish, and he will still definitely win the striking exchanges. This fight should be set closer to -250 in favor of Garbrandt.
Bet 1.45 units on Cody Garbrandt to win 1 unit
Parlay Bet
Parlay 1 unit on Kamaru Usman, Ben Askren, Zabit Magomedsharipov, and Mickey Gall to win 5.28 units
*Alternatively, bet 1 unit on Tyron Woodley, Ben Askren, Zabit Magomedsharipov, and Mickey Gall to win 3.34 units, and bet back those 3.34 units on Kamaru Usman to win. On a $25.00 wager, the return will be $132.05 on the original wager, or $112.86 on the alternative wager. The benefit of the alternative wager is that if Woodley does win, the bettor is even. In the original wager, if Woodley does win, the wager is down $25.00. This is a predictable-future-hedge.*
