John Phillips (+430)/Kevin Holland (-580)
This is a matchup of two finishers against each other. Through 28 fights, Phillips has only ever gone to decision once, while 23 of his fights have ended in the first round. He’s a powerful fighter with 18 (T)KOs on his record. He gets a terrible matchup against Kevin Holland, who has finished 11 of his 12 wins in his career. Holland is a versatile fighter, unlike Phillips, who relies mostly on his striking. If this fight stays standing, these two men are simply too powerful to throw heavy shots for more than a round. That may not be the most likely scenario, though, as Holland should have a massive grappling advantage. He should quickly work for a takedown, limiting the amount of damage he takes on his way to a quick submission victory.
Bet 2 units on Phillips/Holland UNDER 1.5 rounds to win 1.5 units
Hu Yaozong (-110)/Rashad Coulter (-110)
We have another matchup between two finishers. Neither Hu nor Coulter have ever gone to decision. Between the two of them, 13 fights have ended in a knockout, while two fights have ended with a submission. Generally, when we have two low-level heavyweight fighters, the fight is either a quick finish or a boring decision. Hu will be looking to ignite his fans, while Coulter is fighting for his UFC career. Both fighters will want to make a lasting impression with a finish, as well. I’m expecting the length of this fight to be significantly easier to predict than the winner of this fight, which is why I’m opting to go this route, instead to truly a toss up pick for which fighter will win.
Bet 2 units on Hu/Coulter UNDER 1.5 rounds to win 1.5 units
Alistair Overeem (+110)
Alistair Overeem needs to pick up a victory to prove that his days in the UFC are not over. The UFC, likely wanting to keep him around, booked him against Sergey Pavlovich, an up-and-coming, undefeated heavyweight from Eagles MMA. While this will be a challenge for Overeem, Pavlovich has yet to fight under the “big lights”, and Overeem has only lost to elite-level competition in MMA’s top fighting organization. In his last five fights, he does have three loses, but those loses came via Curtis Blaydes, Francis Ngannou, and Stipe Miocic. All three of those fighters are in title contention. If Pavlovich wins this fight, he throws himself right into the middle of the top five in the heavyweight division. That is a lot to ask from such an inexperienced fighter. Overeem still has the power to knock fighters out, and that could happen this Saturday. As an underdog, he is worth betting on over at MyBookie. However, do not roster him on DraftKings, as his fights are far too slow-paced to provide a huge payout, barring a first-round KO, obviously.
Bet 1 unit on Overeem to win 1.1 units
Parlay Bet
Parlay 1 unit on Louis Smolka, Hu Yaozong, Song Kenan, Li Jingliang, and Curtis Blaydes to win 10.3 units
