Luis Pena (-180)
Pena opened as a large favorite, but that line has closed a bit. He was as big as a -390 favorite, which I wouldn’t be interested in betting. That has since changed, and these odds are too good to pass up. Pena was my favorite to win his season of The Ultimate Fighter, but an injury forced him from the competition. He now gets a matchup against Michael Trizano, who won a questionable split decision to win that same season of TUF. Pena is an active striker, who comes with power for his weight class. He also comes with a plethora of submissions. Pena will have an advantage regardless of where this fight takes place, and his original odds were a bit closer to what they should be than his current odds.
Bet 2 units on Pena to win 1.1 units
Davi Ramos (-895)
Ramos’ opponent, John Gunther is a fun human being, who simply deserves the best in life. With that being said, he truly isn’t a UFC-caliber fighter. Gunther won his first UFC fight against Allan Zuniga, who also isn’t ready for the UFC. Ramos is a significantly more talented fighter, who will have a size and strength advantage. Ramos has finished each of his last two fights via submission, and he’ll have a massive advantage on the ground in this fight. It isn’t a matter of how this fight ends, but when. Ramos is a quick starter, and there’s very little reason to believe a fighter like Gunther, who relies heavily on grit and determination, will be able to stop Ramos from an early finish.
Bet 2 units on Ramos UNDER 1.5 rounds to win 1 unit
Donald Cerrone (+170)
Donald Cerrone was mentioned in the DraftKings’ article, but he is far too good of a betting underdog to not also mention him here. Imagine this line two years ago. People would have borrowed against their houses to get bets in on Cerrone. Granted, he is not the fighter that he used to be, and Mike Perry is finally training at a real gym (shout out to Jackson-Wink MMA). It shows. Perry recently picked up a victory over Paul Felder, but Felder did injure his arm early in the fight. Prior to that, Perry lost to both Max Griffin and Santiago Ponzinibbio. Cerrone, on the other hand, is coming off four loses in his last five fights, but those loses include Leon Edwards, Darren Till, Robbie Lawler, and Jorge Masvidal. If Perry’s strategy is to attempt to beat Cerrone with his skillset, he is going to fail. If he charges him, like he used to do before he joined Jackson-Wink MMA, he has a chance to knockout Cerrone. Cerrone’s chin did hold up against Edwards, though, and if Perry does not break his will, look out. Cerrone is bound to come back with a vengeance at some point, and there is no easier opponent at the top of the welterweight division.
Bet 1 unit on Cerrone to win 1.7 units
Parlay 1 unit on Mark De La Rosa, Davi Ramos, Chan Sung Jung, Luis Pena, and Germaine de Randamie to win 6 units (+600)
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