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Howdy partners! Only one contest on the books today and it just so happens to be my most successful track, Parx. $10 entry fee gets you into the guaranteed $500 pot. After winning this tournament the previous two Mondays, we are looking to turn this into a Monday Parx 3-week heater. Today was a little tricky forcing in my heavy favorites as there’s not a single horse under $250 and scratches did not help us out.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Cousin Basil $9,200 – Race 1
I really think Cousin Basil in race 1 is one of the stronger bets of the day, but at extremely short odds. This spot is perfect for her and the addition of blinkers should help. She has only finished outside of the StableDuel base points on her debut effort. Since then, she’s finished top 4 in each race. Normally I avoid maiden races and spending up on a horse that has never won is a bit worrisome, so I would not fault you for looking elsewhere. I’ll help the extra length is more helpful than hurtful in this case.
Portal Creek $8,500 – Race 8
The strongest horse today on my models is Portal Creek. She actually earned a 98% chance of coming top 5 in race 8 which was the highest percentage across all races. I normally don’t doubt my model as it rarely steers me wrong, but I will caution that this will be her first route try. I have nothing but confidence that this filly will be able to get the distance as she had no issue in her lone 7F try, pulling away. For $8,500 a top 2 finish is likely in this field and wouldn’t be disappointed with those results.
Mid Price Plays
Federale $6500 – Race 3
In the only true sprint of the day at Parx, I’ve settled on Federale in the third. Likely, this horse will get off to an early lead. I am hopeful that this horse can set some blistering fractions and hang on to some of the pie. This horse should appreciate the drop in class but will need to get familiar with Parx dirt having an 0 for 1 record here in his 13 career starts.
Value Plays
Snow Forecast $1,000 – Race 9
My strongest value play of the day is Snow Forecast. It’s unlikely this horse finds the winner circle going against the likes of Precious and Map of America. However, after the 4 scratched in this race Snow Forecast has surprisingly surged to a 81% likelihood of acquiring points on StableDuel. Really strong horse and is a true winner on both turf and dirt surfaces. Like this horse to get a piece of the points for only a modest $1,000 tag.
