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Howdy partners! I opted to handicap the Santa Anita card instead of the Keeneland card because of the $5 value tournament and possibly learn some things about the track before we get back to another Double-Up tournament tomorrow. If you are playing Santa Anita today, please note that there is a $25 tournament and a $5 tournament. My core today is largely based around the $5 tournament, taking swings that I wouldn’t do in a more optimal cash style tournament like the $25 offering. I will detail some horses below and make reference to which contest they would work better in. Today was a little more challenging with multiple maiden races and most races feeling top-heavy. It was truly a challenge to find useable value horses today.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
September Secret $11,000 – Race 4
I want to start out this analysis by saying that I am not using this horse in my $5 lineup. This horse is 99.8% likely your winner in this race and probably should be your money horse in the $25 tournament. This horse has faced EVERY horse in this race previously. With the exception of the 2, this horse has beaten each of these horses. In the race that 2 bested September Secret, it was both of their debuts and they finished 8th and 9th place. I usually will throw away first time starts since it really is a new experience for the horse and learning what a race is truly like. September Secret went out after that losing debut and won the next start by 8 lengths, including the 5 and 6 in that race. In the bigger $5 tournament, you have to get creative. That’s why I like Dancing Dana (6) for $1,000 in this race as well. She was beat badly by September Secret in debut but in her second start, went out and won by 3 lengths. In a 5 horse field (after the 4 scratched), Dana will acquire base points and we’ll just hope not to lose by 10+ lengths. Personally and for transparency, Dana would not make my $25 tournament lineup.
Warren’s Showtime $9,200 – Race 9
As is the case with most of these races at Santa Anita today, I have to side with the chalk again in race 9. Warren’s Showtime is dropping in class and going back to her favorite distance of 1M on the turf. With Flavien Prat aboard after a solid Del Mar oaks ride, this is the horse to beat. If you don’t have money to spend up to Warren’s Showtime, I don’t think she wins by open lengths. I think horses like Nasty or Guitty, both in this race for the same $7,000 price tag could make a case after some excuses last out for each of them.
Mid Price Plays
RACE 7
Am I allowed to just say ‘Race 7’ is my mid price play? Because I’m going do it anyways since it’s my article. The 3 scratched in this race, putting every horse at or under $7,000. This is where you’ll find the best mid price horses. Race 7 is a 5-1/2 furlong sprint on the turf. I REALLY like the 5, Colt Fiction at $5,000. This horse is normally forwardly placed but I can’t say he’s a lock since this will be his debut on the grass. Hard to trace his pedigree since his Mom was unraced, but his dad has only 11% winning offspring on turf sprints. The more logical play is the 8, Antithetical at $7,000. Also forwardly placed, has experience on the grass in routes. His dad’s offspring sport a 20% winning rate for turf sprints. Other horses I don’t mind here? Gregdar ($1,000) and Factorial ($7,000).
Value Plays
Stars of Bluegrass $750 – Race 1
My distaste for Maiden races should be well documented. After last night building my entire lineup around a maiden, I’ve actually done it again and I sit here making cases for horses like Stars of Bluegrass in race 1. Honestly, this horse more than likely won’t win this race. I personally think the horse should be running on dirt, but I’m not the owner or trainer. Last out at this distance, Stars of Bluegrass sat back for too long and ended up in traffic. The horse looked like it wanted to bust through the pack but unfortunately there was nowhere to go. If you need a sub-thousand dollar horse, I think this one deserves another look. Ask me again if I like this horse after the race.
