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StableDuel has three tracks listed for contests today but our focus will be on Pimlico for their $10 tournament. After choosing this contest and really diving into handicapping, I realized that this contest is going to be really different than previous days. Every race has a true favorite and the prices range from $8,000 to $12,000! I think today will feature a lot of negative points unless we can truly find some value ponies that hit. We also need to make sure that our high priced horses are worth the salary.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Kailee (IRE) $9,400 – Race 4
I’m going to give you a small hint and just say that this is the first true favorite of the day that I like. She hasn’t won lately, but that’s in part to the level at what this 6YO competes. We’re having a slight drop in class today and will mainly need to handle Dancingwithpaynter ($7,500).
Yaupon $11,000 – Race 9
In a true 3YO race, Yaupon towers over these other horses. $11,000 is A LOT of money to cut from your salary but personally, I don’t think it’s close between this horse and the next best. A son of Uncle Mo, this undefeated Grade 2 winner will try to make it 4 for 4 lifetime.
Mid Price Plays
Arkaan $5,000 – Race 9
This horse has a $5,000 price tag only because Yaupon, as mentioned above, is such a solid favorite that this is just the next price on the board. Arkaan is a decent horse, and did win 2 races at a sprint distance before trying further, and getting a distant third to Preakness runner-up Pneumatic. Cutting back in distance from his only loss, Arkaan could make things interesting for Yaupon, but I think you’re settling in for a nice 2nd place at mid-price value.
Value Plays
Giggling $250 – Race 8
In a field of 16 horses, it seems nuts to peg a 20/1 horse that hasn’t raced on the turf in over a year, but it’s 2020 and I’m getting weird. Surprisingly, this horse has found most of her success on a wet track in the dirt. She has early speed and draws the rail. At $250, I don’t expect this horse to win, but instead, I am in desperate need to find horses in the sub $1,000 range to even have a chance. I don’t know if this horse can get out to an early lead, but I am hoping she can hang on for a piece of the top 5.
Daisy’s Doc $50 – Race 2
Can you see how desperate it’s getting out here? I’m out here like a psycho, making a case for a 30/1 horse. At $50, this is as cheap as it gets before getting to the free horses above 30/1 odds. Now hear me out. This is a maiden special weight race. None of these horses have won. The debut race was only a 5F race. Daisy’s Doc is a half brother to Channel Cat (Grade 2 winner). You’re telling me that in this second race of non-winners, we are going to increase the distance and let a horse that is related to a route winner try to show some late kick? AND WERE SPENDING $50? Sign me up.
