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Ricky and I have already recorded a podcast which is available for your viewing pleasure on YouTube. That is an in-depth, race-by-race analysis of the full card at Tampa on Saturday. Here, I’d like to give a few options based on price tiers.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Investmentstrategy $9,000 – Race 10
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but this Chad Brown fellow is pretty darn good on the turf. Investmentstrategy is easily the safest option in this field full of unknowns. She was far back behind a moderate pace on her debut, finishing a clear second behind her stablemate Split Then Double. Her debut race is arguably already strong enough to beat this field, and with expected improvement in her second start, she will be tough to hold off in Race 10.
Mid Price Plays
Goddess of Fire $6,500 – Race 6
I’m not enamored with the favorites in this race, as both have to answer some questions surrounding distance or are coming in off of a long layoff. Goddess of Fire won her debut at first asking at Saratoga, and connections have since tried to stretch her out to a route of ground while moving her up in class. That hasn’t worked out for this filly, but she now returns to an appropriate class level and gets a much needed turn back in distance. Expect her to get a comfortable stalking position behind the dueling speeds of Strategic Bird and Platinum Gem and make a big run late.
Value Plays
All Good Times $250 – Race 9
If you build a stable of nine horses but have barely any salary remaining, All Good Times may just be the horse for you. While she is a risky play, she also offers tremendous upside at only $250. She is likely to be on the lead or pressing the #1 Nantucket Red. She loves the trip going two turns at Tampa, posting five career wins at this configuration. She’s also making her first start for Darien Rodriguez, who is 37% first off of the claim over the last three years. As long as she avoids a suicidal pace battle with Nantucket Red, she has a real chance at the upset.
Well, All Good Times has scratched from the race. Instead, I’ll give two value plays in this race I still like. Nantucket Red ($1,000) now projects to be textbook lone speed with the scratch of All Good Times. It’s unclear if she is really a dirt horse, but everything Michael Wright has sent out this meet has been live, as he has four winners from four starters so far. She’s classy enough to win this if she takes to the surface at all.
Striking Chrome ($1,000) is another excellent alternate for a value play. She is ultra consistent, hitting the exacta in 10 of 14 career starts. She gets a bit of a class test here, but she should likely be sitting no worse than second or third behind a projected slow pace. She is a safer pick than Nantucket Red to earn positive points, although probably less likely to outright win.
