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Welcome to opening Saturday at Santa Anita! This is the second of many StableDuel articles and strategies that will be shared with Karma nation. If you missed Ricky’s article yesterday, check it out here for a brief overview of how StableDuel works and how points are scored. The short version is that it is essentially daily fantasy for horse racing where you aim to maximize your points from selecting 10 horses within a given budget. The price of each horse is contingent upon its Morning Line odds – basically how likely each horse is to win according to the oddsmaker. I will be available in the DFSKarma #StableDuel discord to provide live updates and answer any questions all day today, so be sure to join and check it out here in discord! Today StableDuel has a FREE CONTEST at Santa Anita with an estimated payout of $400 to the winner, so what are you waiting for? Click the banner below to sign up and start winning with Karma!
High Priced Favorites
Race 2 – Loud Loud Music $7,500
There are quite a few very heavy favorites on the card today, but the price tag they come with often is too steep to match their chance of winning. Loud Loud Music is actually second choice in Race 2, and despite scoring both wins over turf she has ran her career best speed figure last out over dirt. 7 furlongs was clearly a touch too far for her against stakes company, so the cutback and drop in class should make the difference here today.
Race 4 – Babel $7,500
Inside speed is overwhelmingly dominant going a mile on the Santa Anita main track, and Babel should easily be able to clear the 2 foes to his inside and make the lead early. His main pace threats are marooned far outside and will likely be compromised by ground loss due to the quick run to the first turn. Babel just missed when running 2nd in his only other start at a mile against much stronger claiming $50,000 company, and he seems ready for a big effort here 3rd off the layoff while returning to a route.
Medium Priced Plays
Race 9 – Proud Pedro $3,000
While United is likely the horse to beat here when running second last out, he comes with a very expensive price tag given that the 1st through 4th place finishers were all separated by less than a length in that race, so I’ll look to Proud Pedro for some value in this spot. He was compromised by a slow pace last out when trying to rally from the rear, and he is returning to the mile and a quarter distance where he is a perfect 1 for 1.
Race 6 – Dr. Troutman $3,000
Dr Troutman likely isn’t good enough to outright win this race on his own merits. However, he projects to be lone speed in a race that doesn’t have much pace over a track and distance that has a massive early speed bias. During the spring Santa Anita meet, 47% of races held at 1 mile were won on the lead, with a staggering 95% won by horses labeled as early speed or early pressing run styles. He gets a huge rider upgrade today and a slight cutback which should help. Perhaps he gets run down late, but at $3,000 you’re getting a great bargain for a horse who should hit the board.
Value Plays
Race 5 – Windy City Red $500
This is definitely not a race where I’d feel comfortable taking an expensive horse, as 2-year-olds are known to be inconsistent and a bit chaotic. That being said, Windy City Red actually posted the fastest race of all the horses entered today when setting a contested pace and pulling away late at Golden Gate Fields. Normally I’d be skeptical of the quality of the field for a horse shipping in from Golden Gate, but this stakes race turned up incredibly weak and seems ripe for an upset candidate.
Race 7 – Catch the Eye $750
Sometimes in StableDuel you have to play the horse who likely won’t win but who can hugely outrun her price tag, and Catch the Eye fits the bill here. At a very cheap price of only $750, this filly has run almost as fast as the top contenders in this race, only losing by less than a length to Maxim Rate and less than 2 lengths to Lady Prancealot, both of whom will be strongly backed here at higher prices. The 10 furlong distance should suit her better than some of her competition today, so if she can take any step forward out of her last 2 races she has a very real chance to run 2nd or 3rd at a generous discount.
