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We’re heading out west today for some Santa Anita StableDuel action! We have a nine race card to work with, and I honestly was unable to find many value plays. While there aren’t many lead pipe lock favorites, there also aren’t many appealing horses in the $1,000 range or less, as it feels like a day where most races will be won by mid-priced horses. That being said, it does seem the best opportunity for a value horse is in the cheap claiming races and the turf maiden race, so that’s how I’ve approached this sequence.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Comradery $9,400 – Race 6
Comradery is the most expensive horse for the entire day, but he also appears to be the most likely winner as well. Either of his last two races would win today, and he should continue improving as he makes his third start off the layoff. Sadler calls for turf wizard Rispoli to take the mount, who will need to find a way to save ground from the high draw, but with a fair trip this colt should be strictly the one to beat.
Bounty of Gold $8,500 – Race 3
I’m taking a slightly different approach here by writing about a high priced favorite who I am against in this race. Bounty of Gold is certainly speed of the speed today, but she seems like a horse who is unable to carry her speed beyond five and one half furlongs. She is remarkably 0 for 7 when trying to navigate six furlongs, and I think she will once again get weary late in the lane today. She is also stepping up in class as she moves from nonwinners of two races lifetime company to open claiming company, so don’t be fooled by the drop in claiming price. She wouldn’t be a shock to win this race, but she offers poor value for her steep price tag.
Mid Price Plays
After Midnight $5,000 – Race 4
After Midnight is a horse that carries significant risk but also has sizeable upside. She will most likely be the leader in a race that doesn’t have much early speed on paper, as she stretches out from five furlongs to a mile. Santa Anita has the temporary rails all the way out to 30 feet today, which should favor speed horses and those drawn to the inside while compromising closers and wide post positions. Carla Gaines rarely gets horses to win at first asking, so I’m expecting improvement here. If she can carry her speed for a mile she could offer great value at the $5,000 price. However, be aware that there is also a decent chance she doesn’t want to travel this far or has to deal with unexpected pace pressure and tires badly, so a negative point outcome here would not be out of the question either.
Zestful $7,000 – Race 8
Zestful projects to be the textbook definition of lone speed in this race, and she is getting the services of one of the more underrated early speed jockeys in Edwin Maldonado. I’m expecting him to dole out some moderate to slow fractions early, as many of the other contenders are one-run closers who are going to be compromised by the flow of the race. The distance should be no issue for him, as he’s already won going significantly further against better horses. he should be in front turning for home, and it will then be a matter of how much gas he has left in the tank to hold off the closers.
Value Plays
Temple Secret $500 – Race 6
There are a number of horses exiting that August 28th affair at Del Mar, and most of them are not very interesting to me. Temple Secret ran a sneaky good race that day when he stumbled badly early and then had to steady when going into the turn, costing him some precious momentum at a key point of the race. That effort appears even better when you factor in that he was entering that race off of a 15 month layoff. He should have improved his fitness level after getting a race under his belt, and while the favorite in this race does appear very strong, Temple Secret offers great value to earn points for hitting the board at a very generous price.
Annie’s Boy $750 – Race 7
I struggled mightily to find another value play I liked, and I’ll be the first to warn you that this pick is not for the faint of heart. Annie’s Boy was racing at some of the cheapest tracks in America at Turf Paradise and Arapahoe Park, but he was beating those horses handily in nearly every start. This Arizona-bred gelding tried mixed breed racing with quarter horses in his last two outings, and he seems to find the 1000 yard dashes just a bit too sharp. The main reason I landed on him today is that there is no other speed in this race, and I’ve already mentioned how dangerous Maldonado can be when left alone on a speed horse. He is likely too cheap to win, as he would need to improve his speed figures quite a bit to contend with some of today’s rivals. However, if the rest of this field views him as cheap speed and lets him go alone up front, he may just get brave and steal the race, or at least hold on for a minor award.
