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Ricky has everyone covered with a Laurel core today, so I decided to take my talents out west for some Golden Gate Fields action in today’s $25 double up contest. With only seven races and most fields only drawing six to seven horses, it was incredibly challenging to find budget horses who can outrun their odds. Let’s take a look below at a few contenders.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Superduty Justice $9,400 – Race 1
Race 1 is being billed as a two horse affair between Superduty Justice and Quipo. I elected to lean on the former in this spot. Don’t be fooled by the fact Superduty Justice was beaten by maiden claimers last time out, because that field at Santa Anita was significantly tougher than what he’s running against today. He showed good speed in that debut, and I think he is going to make the lead here, a huge advantage in these cheap maiden events. Quipo is also a very likely winner, but I think Superduty Justice should be able to get the job done.
Red Bunting $9,200 – Race 6
I’m actually against Red Bunting today as a favorite, which means in all likelihood this is finally the time he breaks through for a win. While this filly should almost certainly earn points today, she just seems to absolutely hate winning. It doesn’t matter if she’s against $50,000 starter allowance company at Del Mar or bottom barrel claimers at Golden Gate, she still finds a way to lose. It feels like if she was ever going to win, last time was the time for her, so I’m unwilling to back this one-run closer at an expensive price in today’s race. I’d look towards Always in Vegas or Silly Notion for better value.
Mid Price Plays
A Little Bit Lucky $5,000 – Race 4
I recognize that City Champ is the likeliest winner in this race, going undefeated while impressively winning his first two starts. After him, however, I feel like this field is very evenly matched. Bobby’s Alibi and A Little Bit Lucky dueled on the lead in that common October 25 race, and while Bobby got the better of Lucky that day, he only beat him by less than a length. Now the post positions are reversed, and Lucky should have an opportunity to press and stalk Bobby from the outside, always an advantage for a speed horse. While City Champ should win this race is he repeats his last race, Lucky offers significant value compared to the rest of the field if he can navigate the extra distance.
Seventh Wave $6,500 – Race 7
Race 7 is a bit of a disaster, it is the largest field full of the cheapest horses, so the potential for calamity certainly exists. I thought Seventh Wave is an interesting alternative to the favorites in this race. This five-year-old gelding has had some issues staying healthy in his career, but he seems to have finally put everything together. He now makes his third start off the layoff after respectable showings in his prior two starts, and he also makes his first start for the Reid France barn, who is 16% first off the claim. He owns enough speed in here to be dangerous, and I expect the addition of blinkers to have him even more forwardly placed. It’s encouraging to see the barn go for a top local jockey in Evin Roman, and if he avoids a super wide trip I think he could be dangerous.
Value Plays
Dutch Colonel $250 – Race 7
Remember how I said Race 7 was a disaster and could set up for some chaos? Well, meet Dutch Colonel, a $250 horse who might just bring the chaos. This gelding actually ran a decent race first out despite being totally dismissed on the board, pressing the pace for half a mile before tiring late in the stretch. Maidens who flash any talent at all in their debut are often strong contenders to improve dramatically in their second start. Dutch Colonel is a bit of a wildcard in a field full of horses who’ve had a number of cracks at this level and have not improved, so you could certainly do worse for a mere $250.
Unusual Song $750 – Race 5
Race 5 is one of the few races on the day where I think you can make an argument for a number of budget contenders to earn solid points. Unusual Secret made her AW debut last out in her first start for the DeLima barn, and she ran a surprisingly strong race. She was caught behind a slow pace that day, and she was closing strong despite having to come from last. I think she should get a more honest pace to run after today. I do have reservations about the jockey switch to Pablo Flores, but as long as he doesn’t let her get too far off the pace I think she could at least get a piece of this race at generous odds.
