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With no Keeneland or Santa Anita running and Del Mar not starting until Saturday, we’re going to try Golden Gate Fields for today’s StableDuel contest. We have eight contest races to choose from, and a few short fields, so it’ll be important to pick your spots when doubling up in a race. Let’s take a deeper dive below.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Tibby Gee $9,200 – Race 7
To be honest, I prefer Gifty in this race, and if you look at the core plays you’ll see that is who I’ve used. However, I also respect Tibby Gee quite a bit in this race. This is a dreadful race full of horses who hate winning. I struggle to envision a scenario where Tibby Gee and Gifty don’t run 1-2 or 2-1, so while it is a huge investment, I don’t hate the idea of using both horses to nearly lock up 100 points in this race. Tibby Gee should improve as she makes her first start for perennial leading trainer Jonathan Wong, who gets 30% winners first off the claim. She needs a bit of a pace setup, but she should be able to run down everyone except Gifty in this spot to secure second.
Edit: Gifty has scratched. Tibby Gee is a very strong play in this race now if you wish to invest the budget. I also upgrade Way Too Sweet, who should make the lead and hold on for a piece.
Galwalksintoabar $8,000 – Race 1
Galwalksintoabar is not the favorite in this race on the morning line, but I think she ultimately will go off much shorter than her 3/1 odds. She projects to be lone speed in this race that doesn’t have much other pace. She gets some class relief when finding $50k starter allowance company too tough last out, but she set an honest pace for half a mile before faltering late. Majorie E may try to contest the lead by adding blinkers, but I’m just not sure she’s quick enough to get in front of Galwalksintoabar.
Edit: Majorie E has scratched. Galwalksintoabar is a very strong play, and this is a strong race to double up in with either Union Smarty (below) or Incredibly Lucky.
Mid Price Plays
Doghouse $6,000 – Race 5
Race 5 has some pretty terrible options to choose from, but I’m electing support the big class dropper rather than any of those who have already tried and failed at this low level. Call Sign Lucky feels like an awful favorite here, as he’s already failed twice at this level while getting caught late and now has to go an extra 1/16th of a mile. Doghouse flashed good early pace in his last start against very strong maiden special weight foes at Santa Anita, and he truly wasn’t embarrassed until late in the stretch. Samuel Calvario is having an excellent meet, winning at 26%, and Doghouse shows a series of nice workouts. I think there is more talent here than appears on paper, and $6,000 is more than fair value for this gelding.
Union Smarty $3,000 – Race 1
$3,000 is probably closer to a value play than a mid priced horse, but this is the kind of card where my strategy is to hammer the high budget horses who are strong contenders and then find the very cheap horses who can get points as low prices. I don’t think there are many appealing mid range horses, but Union Smarty may be one who fits the bill. First, race 1 only has six horses entered, so the potential for earning points is high provided she can simply beat one other foe. Additionally, she is making her third start off of the long layoff after running competitively in her first two events, an angle that yields trainer Tim Bellasis winners 23% of the time. One has to figure she’ll be more fit after those efforts. She may be an unlikely candidate to win outright, but I think she has a strong chance to earn points in this compact field.
Value Plays
Draw Me $1,000 – Race 2
Sadie Bluegrass is definitely the horse to beat in this race, but you’re definitely going to pay a premium for her services. With only five horses in this field, I think this is a good race to take a shot with a long shot. As long as the horse isn’t beaten by more than 10 lengths, you’re guaranteed to earn points in this race. Draw Me is ultra consistent, hitting the exacta in eight of her last ten starts. She earned a speed figure on TimeformUS that makes her extremely competitive with anyone in this field. She moves up a bit in class here, but I think she should get a nice trip sitting just off of Sadie Bluegrass. Princess Vivian is the other major threat here, but she needs a pace setup and doesn’t seem likely to get one today. She’s the likeliest horse to run second, but Draw Me is far too enticing to pass up at only $1,000.
Edit: Sadie Bluegrass has scratched. This is a pivotal race now as there are only four runners, and all of them are being offered at massive discounts since the favorite scratched who was over $9,000. You absolutely MUST double up in this race at minimum. Draw Me is still a strong contender, as is the other Wong entrant Praise and Honor. Princess Vivian is also usable.
La Gata Elegante $3,000 – Race 6
La Gata Elegante is somewhat of a risk versus reward play in Race 6. I’m not particularly impressed with either favorite Magical Path or Sophie Antionette. They can both win, but neither warrants their expensive price in this race. La Gata Elegante just broke her maiden last out and faces winners for the first time today, normally the kind of horse whom I’d play against. However, her last race was very impressive, sitting just off of a hot pace and driving past with authority to win by an easy length. She has the option to send for the lead or to track the pace, and it’s encouraging to see Santos keep the mount for Wayne Baker, as they are 33% when teaming up together this meet. There are others in this field who I prefer more, but I find La Gata Elegante an interesting contender worthy of consideration at an affordable price.
