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Happy Thanksgiving! StableDuel has been generous enough to offer another FREE ROLL contest at Del Mar for today! Don’t forget that you can have up to three entries in the free contest, so make sure to toss in a few stables before diving into that pumpkin pie!
In full disclosure, I found this to be one of the most challenging Del Mar cards of the entire year. I struggled mightily to find any horses to build my stable around. That being said, it’s a free roll contest, so a higher than average score will be required to win. I took some risks, so let’s dive in and look at a few interesting contenders.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Today Matters $9,000 – Race 1
Race 1 is a race that I would normally look to skip if we had more races on today’s card, but with only eight races to pick from, it’s hard to skip any of them. Today Matters comes in with a steep $9,000 price point for a horse who has never even raced over dirt. However, the main reason I’m including him is that his trainer has gaudy stats when switching horses from turf to dirt, hitting at 42% with a $10.34 ROI! This race is absolutely wide open, so I’ll lean on strong trainer stats to try to get a winner in the opener.
One Fast Bro $7,500 – Race 2
Race 2 is a very tough maiden special weight affair, but One Fast Bro seems to be the best of a mediocre bunch. He pressed a very quick pace in his last start, took over the lead at the top of the stretch before getting nailed at the wire by a few deep closers. There should be a more mild pace setup today, and I also expect One Fast Bro to be more fit making his third start off the layoff. I prefer him to the other high priced horses here, who have had plenty of chances at this level and haven’t been able to break through.
Mid Price Plays
Secret Courier $3,000 – Race 3
If you haven’t been paying attention lately, it’s worth noting that Del Mar has been an overwhelmingly speed-favoring track on the dirt during this meet, especially in sprints. While this race has a lot of speed on paper, I think Secret Courier could get ignored on the board as a live longshot. Toss his last race as he was making his first start off of a long layoff, and toss the race two back on the turf. This horse has huge early speed, and he paired up his career top thorograph figure in that last race. I expect a forward move today, and he offers upset potential at a generous price.
Hoop Dream $5,000 – Race 8
The final race of the day is an interesting challenge, as the strongest contenders are all drawn to the far outside and could be compromised by a wide trip. While I think Bud Knight is the likeliest winner this race, I also find Hoop Dream very interesting in this race. His two turf efforts were respectable, and he now gets a significant rider upgrade to Juan Hernandez. I think the slight cutback to a flat mile will benefit him, and he has a good chance to hit the board at a reasonable price.
Value Plays
Going to Vegas $750 – Race 6
Going to Vegas isn’t exactly a win machine, as she often settles for minor awards, but she is the exact kind of horse who can earn stable points at a very cheap price of $750. She was only beaten by a neck in a Grade 3 stakes last out, and her morning line feels pretty disrespectful given her consistent form. She owns good early speed, so I would expect her to be tracking the early leaders and in good position turning for home. The distance is a bit of a question mark given her pedigree, but she has been closing strong in all of her route races, suggesting the added ground shouldn’t be an issue.
Awesome Drive $1,000 – Race 4
This is another race where I think the morning line is way off from where it should be. Awesome Drive has been a completely different animal since being claimed by the O’Neill barn. She rattled off consecutive wins against claiming company, and she didn’t embarrass herself at all in her last two starts while facing older horses. She drops back into restricted three-year-old company here, and it’s encouraging to see she retains the services of Rispoli, who had a few choices in this race.
