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We have a free contest today at Del Mar, so that’s where I will be focusing! If you haven’t already signed up, now is the perfect time!
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High Price Favorites
Spielberg $11,000 – Race 1
Race 1 has two horses who are extremely expensive in Spielberg and Parnelli. When I’m spending upwards of $9,000 on a horse, I want that horse to be as close to a mortal lock as possible. That being said, I don’t have high enough confidence to commit to either of the big priced horses in this first race. Spielberg is probably the more trustworthy of the two, as he has been in Grade 1 company lately despite still being a maiden. However, he was well beaten last out at short odds, and it remains to be seen just how good this colt really is. Parnelli got away with a slow pace in each of his last two races, yet he was run down in both of those events. That doesn’t inspire confidence for me today when he will have to deal with Spielberg pressing on his outside. I am going with a mid-priced horse here, The Great One, who is working lights out in the morning and should appreciate the stretch out to one mile. I’m not sure if he can beat the top two, but he’s a good bet to run no worse than third at a reasonable price.
Pizzazz $9,200 – Race 6
Pizzazz and Ivy League will likely vie for favoritism here, and I give the edge to Pizzazz. She was a bit too close to a hot pace in her last start, so she ran deceptively well to hold on for third against Breeder’s Cup bound filly Madone. Mike Smith has been riding very well lately, and I think she gets the right trip sitting off of the early speed and will get first jump on her main threat Ivy League.
Mid Price Plays
Ricky Nine Toes $5,000 – Race 5
Race 5 is a pretty weak field of bottom level maidens, so I want to go with a horse who is dropping in class. Ricky Nine Toes has been competitive against better horses for most of 2020, and she also has good early speed, an always dangerous combination. She should be more fit making her third start off the layoff, and she is a major threat in this weak field.
Lane Way $7,000 – Race 8
Lane Way isn’t exactly a win machine, but he’s been a much better horse since switching to the turf in his last three starts. This race projects to have a lot of early speed signed on, so I’m a little hesitant to support a horse like Strongconstitution, Margots Boy, or Dominant Soul. I think Lane Way gets the right trip in here, and if he repeats his last race he will be difficult to beat today.
Value Plays
Agamemnon $250 – Race 7
You read me correctly, you can get Agamemnon for only $250 in today’s seventh race. There’s no doubt that Fratelli is the horse to beat in this spot, but he’s coming off of two monster races, and it’s fair to wonder if those efforts may have taken the starch out of him a bit. Additionally, the presence of Shady Empire will almost certainly ensure a fast pace up front between him and Fratelli. Del Mar has historically favored outside stalkers, so I’m playing to a bit of bias that suggests Agamemnon should get a strong pace to run at today. An outright win is unlikely, but I think he has as good of a chance as any to round out the bottom of trifectas and superfectas at an incredibly low price.
Next Flight $750 – Race 9
Race 9 is full of horses who have proven they absolutely hate to win, posting records to the tune of 1 for 20 (or worse) multiple times. I want to go with a young three-year-old here who still hasn’t proven he is a career loser. Next Flight showed promise as a two-year-old, winning against maiden special weight foes and being entered in a listed stakes race. Something clearly went awry that day, as he has missed considerable time after that start. However, he didn’t appear much worse for wear when running competitively at Del Mar three starts back on July 11. His last two starts have been a little worse, so perhaps he went off form a bit after posting that big race after the layoff. However, he now enters this race today looking sharp, evidenced by a wicked 59.4 workout on October 26th, and he gets a jockey change to the red-hot Jessica Pyfer. Look for him to make the lead early and try to hang on late against a mediocre group.
