While most of the action will be focused in New York this weekend for the Belmont Stakes, Gulfstream Park is quietly hosting a great 14 race card headlined by the Martha Washington Stakes. While the caliber of horses running may not match that at Belmont, the large field sizes and competitive races might actually result in Gulfstream being the better card for wagering, and certainly for StableDuel. Note that they are calling for rain today and tomorrow at Gulfstream, so it will pay to watch the weather to see if they decide to take any of the races off the turf. Thankfully, Gulfstream installed the synthetic track last year which generally results in a lot less scratches when turf races do come off. With that said, let’s take a look at a few races below.
If you’ve been following along with us here at DFS Karma, you already know the gig. You have a mythical $50k budget to pick 10 horses racing today. Each horse has a price, based on it’s morning line odds. Horses who are heavy favorites will cost you more salary to use, but they also generally bring more upside. Longshot horses will be cheaper but do carry some risk. You will either earn or lose points for each horse you’ve selected based on where they finish. The short version is that finishing in the top 5 earns you 10-60 points from 5th to 1st, respectively, plus or minus some points based on the margin of victory. If you finish worse than 5th, however, you lose points based on how much you lost by, so be careful with taking longshots!
Below, I’ve outlined a few horses at varying price tiers who I feel are compelling horses to include in some StableDuel stables.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
Looking for other ideas to fill out your stable? Be sure to check out the discord, where we provide core plays and cheat sheets to help you win! Also be sure to check out the podcast where Ricky, Trevis, and I review some of our favorite horses, angles, and strategies for the Preakness!
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High Price Favorites
Tapsasional $9,400 – Race 11
Tapsasional enters this race off the heels of posting a 7-1 upset last time out in a Florida-bred allowance race. After failing to get the job done at Tampa Bay Downs for a few starts, bettors didn’t credit Tapsasional, but the four-year-old gelding responded with a big effort. Tapsasional projects to be controlling speed in this race from the rail draw, as it seems unlikely anyone will be able to match his early foot. This horse clearly relishes the Gulfstream Park surface, which plays significantly different than the deeper, more tiring surface found at Tampa Bay Downs, so the form reversal is not completely surprising. Tapsasional is one of the few horses already proven at this distance at this course, and with a significant pace advantage, he should prove tough to run down in this field.
Mid Price Plays
Blessed Journey $5,000 – Race 13
Race 13 appears to have a ton of early speed signed on for this one-turn mile, as Brisnet shows at least six horses labeled as “E” types who need the lead in order to run their best race. This suggests we should have a quick and contested pace up front, and these are the opportunities where I like to look for moderate to cheap horses who can come running late to pick up the pieces. One such runner is Blessed Journey. He owns the best late pace figure in the field, and he was compromised by a slow pace and a very strong speed bias last time out. He has since been claimed by Renaldo Richards, who is 23% first off the claim with a $2.09 ROI (4/13). Blessed Journey won at this level two races ago before finding going to the ice cold Daniel Pita barn (5% this year) and running against a strong track bias. There is plenty of speed signed on in here, and I expect Blessed Journey to take a nice step forward getting back to a mile.
Value Plays
Trust Daddy $500 – Race 12
Trust Daddy is probably not your most likely winner of this race, but I find him to be an excellent StableDuel horse at a very cheap price point. A number of today’s runners are exiting the English Channel Stakes from May 7. I’m not particularly impressed with any of the runners coming from that race. It’s generally an indicator of a subpar quality race when it ends in a blanket finish between 3+ horses, as it’s unlikely that there are truly that many horses that are standouts. The speed figures support this notion, as the winner of that race received a mediocre 96 TFUS speed figure. In his only start in a turf route, Trust Daddy actually earned a 97 TFUS figure at Aqueduct while facing significantly tougher stakes foes. I think the sprint race last out was purely a prep to get this horse fit coming off of the long layoff, and I love the move stretching him back out to a mile. He projects to sit a great trip off of a likely speed duel and should get first jump on the deeper closers.
