Happy Sunday to all! We had a great day at Karma yesterday, with one user finishing second in the big Tampa Bay Derby contest and multiple people cashing! Let’s keep the streak alive today by heading out west to Santa Anita Park. It’s a short card of only eight races, and many races have small fields of only five to six runners. That means we have to double up in a few races, and we also need to be extremely creative at finding prices. Let’s take a look at a few interesting contenders below.
If you’ve been following along with us here at DFS Karma, you already know the gig. You have a mythical $50k budget to pick 10 horses racing at Gulfstream this Saturday. Each horse has a price, based on it’s morning line odds. Horses who are heavy favorites will cost you more salary to use, but they also generally bring more upside. Longshot horses will be cheaper but do carry some risk. You will either earn or lose points for each horse you’ve selected based on where they finish. The short version is that finishing in the top 5 earns you 10-60 points from 5th to 1st, respectively, plus or minus some points based on the margin of victory. If you finish worse than 5th, however, you lose points based on how much you lost by, so be careful with taking longshots!
Below, I’ve outlined a few horses at varying price tiers who I feel are compelling horses to include in some Stableduel stables.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Edgeway $11,000 – Race 1
Starting off the day with a huge favorite, Edgeway is quite possibly the most likely winner on the entire card. This mare is incredibly consistent, winning six of ten starts and never finishing worse than fourth in her career. She steps back up to graded stakes today, but this is a rather weak field for the level. She should be able to set the pace or sit just off and blow the doors off of this field turning for home. The only real threat, Private Mission, laid an egg last out and loses the services of leading rider Flavian Prat, suggesting she may not be as sharp as she was last year.
Mid Price Plays
Topolina $6,000 – Race 8
Topolina ran a big race in her debut, sprinting clear of the field and opening up four lengths before understandably tiring late and getting caught at the wire. She raced greenly that day and appeared like a horse who will significantly improve with experience. She still managed to finish three lengths clear of the third place finisher, and she should improve after getting that first race under her belt. Rispoli should be able to secure the lead but rate her early speed better today. Note that Rispoli is an astonishing 37% when riding for Doug O’Neill at the meet.
Value Plays
Abadon $750 – Race 2
With a card like today’s, it’s nearly impossible to find many appealing horses under $3,000 due to the small field sizes. Abadon is one of the few runners who I believe has a chance to earn positive points at a cheap price. It’s a small five horse field, so as long as he finishes within ten lengths of the leader we should earn points here. However, there are reasons beyond that to think this horse may run well. Seven furlongs is a notoriously tricky distance, and there are a few runners in here who seem challenged to navigate six furlongs and now have to stretch out. Abadon was closing pretty well in his last start at a mile, but both of his best races have come going around one turn. The pace should be honest today with Fort Bridger, Verragio, and Too Late all likely to contest the lead, and while Allaboutthemoney is the most likely winner, Abadon is a good candidate to come running late and clunk up for second or third.
