Today StableDuel is offering a $50 contest that pays out to the top 15 finishers at Santa Anita Park. We have an eight race card on tap today, with a few small fields and a few tricky maiden races to navigate. First place takes home a grand, so let’s see if we can uncover a few solid favorites as well as some value horses to include.
If you’ve been following along with us here at DFS Karma, you already know the gig. You have a mythical $50k budget to pick 10 horses racing at Gulfstream this Saturday. Each horse has a price, based on it’s morning line odds. Horses who are heavy favorites will cost you more salary to use, but they also generally bring more upside. Longshot horses will be cheaper but do carry some risk. You will either earn or lose points for each horse you’ve selected based on where they finish. The short version is that finishing in the top 5 earns you 10-60 points from 5th to 1st, respectively, plus or minus some points based on the margin of victory. If you finish worse than 5th, however, you lose points based on how much you lost by, so be careful with taking longshots!
Below, I’ve outlined a few horses at varying price tiers who I feel are compelling horses to include in some Stableduel stables.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Glory of Chrome $8,000 – Race 2
Race 2 is a pretty dreadful field of bottom barrel maiden claimers. Normally I’d advise against spending up in a race like this, but I couldn’t find many other high priced horses I felt good about. Big Bell is an extremely heavy favorite at 4/5 in this race, and she is definitely the horse to beat based on her turf form. However, it’s unclear how well that turf form will transition to a dirt route for the first time in her career. She also seems to do most of her running from the back of the pack, and there isn’t a ton of speed in here. Given the lack of apparent speed, I’m siding with Glory of Chrome on top. This filly has shown steady improvement in her last few starts, especially considering she stumbled at the break last out and still barely missed by less than a length. I think adding the blinkers suggests she will be more involved early, and she has a good chance to win this race either on or just off of the pace.
Mid Price Plays
Unbridled Mary $3,000 – Race 7
Race 7 brings us a field of three-year-old fillies sprinting down the turf at Santa Anita. At first glance, it appears there is a lot of early speed in this race, with the likes of Shoppingforpharoah, Baby Steps, and Professor’s Pride all likely to send for the lead. I think this sets up for a mid pack runner such as Unbridled Mary. She broke her maiden at first asking at Del Mar when stalking a moderate pace. She now adds Lasix for the first time and should improve making her second career start and first start as a three-year-old. She appears to be working strong and steady in the mornings, so I think she offers good value at 8/1.
Value Plays
Daniel’s Magic $1,000 – Race 1
We’re kicking off the card with a value play right out of the gate using Daniel’s Magic for only $1,000. This morning line feels a little questionable to me. Daniel’s Magic ran a very good second when he tried turf sprinting against maiden claimers last year, and connections tried moving him up into maiden special weight company as a result of that race. Those waters were a little too deep, so he logically returns to an easier level today. He is making his third start off of an extended layoff while also cutting back to a six furlong spring, a distance where he has historically had his best races. You also get one of the best local turf riders in Umberto Rispoli to take the mount. Daniel’s Magic is very live in this race that lacks a clear standout.
