This weekend we have the first Kentucky Derby prep race at Tampa Bay Downs, the Sam F. Davis stakes! A field of 13 horses lines up to go a mile and a sixteenth this Saturday, and StableDuel is hosting another massive contest with a $30k guarantee! The card is loaded with big, competitive fields, but the early sequence appears to be a minefield full of lightly raced maiden events. Let’s take a look below at a few horses I find interesting.
If you’ve been following along with us here at DFS Karma, you already know the gig. You have a mythical $50k budget to pick 10 horses racing at Gulfstream this Saturday. Each horse has a price, based on it’s morning line odds. Horses who are heavy favorites will cost you more salary to use, but they also generally bring more upside. Longshot horses will be cheaper but do carry some risk. You will either earn or lose points for each horse you’ve selected based on where they finish. The short version is that finishing in the top 5 earns you 10-60 points from 5th to 1st, respectively, plus or minus some points based on the margin of victory. If you finish worse than 5th, however, you lose points based on how much you lost by, so be careful with taking longshots!
Below, I’ve outlined a few horses at varying price tiers who I feel are compelling horses to include in some Stableduel stables.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Classic Causeway $8,000 – Race 10
Starting off with the feature race, Classic Causeway is a 3/1 morning line favorite, and a deserving one at that. He enters this race owning the best piece of form of every horse in the field with his second place finish in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs last out. That race has proven to be extremely productive. The third place finisher, White Abarrio, came back to win the Holy Bull at Gulfstream last week. A horse who finished midpack of that race, Call Me Midnight, came back to upset the Lecomte stakes at Fairgrounds a few weeks ago as well. Classic Causeway proved he doesn’t need the lead when rating last out, and if he employs similar tactics today he will be hard to beat.
Mid Price Plays
Pudding $7,000 – Race 7
If the “good” Baby Yoda shows up on Saturday, the rest of this field is running for minor awards. However, Baby Yoda is far from a consistent performer. After blowing the doors off of an allowance field at Saratoga in September, he regressed significantly in his next two starts. He finally got back to that impressive level last out in the Malibu when running a strong second place finish behind the all-star Flightline. However, I’m not convinced that he moves forward off of that race. I think it’s more likely we see him ‘bounce’ off of that effort, similar to before. Given the abundance of early speed in this race, I’m taking my chances with the late runner Pudding. He is by no means a one-run closer, but he does appear to do his best running when he has a target in front of him to chase. With plenty of speed signed on, I think Pudding gets a great trip stalking the leaders and powering home late in the stretch. He’s already proven over this Tampa surface, and although he may be a little better at seven furlongs as opposed to six, I think the race will set up for him to get the job done regardless.
Value Plays
Peaceful Surprise $1,000 – Race 8
This is a race where I believe it behooves the horseplayer to take a shot with a cheap horse. Nest was installed as the heavy 3/5 morning line favorite, but I fail to see any reason why he should be that overwhelmingly short on the board. He is a deserving favorite to be sure, but I’d put him closer to 3/2 as opposed to the 3/5 on the morning line. That makes basically every other horse in the field considerable value, and I’m taking a shot with a lightly raced horse in Peaceful Surprise. This horse was off a touch slow in her debut and stuck behind a slow pace, but that didn’t matter as she tipped off of the rail late to surge up for an impressive win. She should get a more honest pace setup today, and with the expected improvement going from first to second career start, she is an upset contender and a must-use horse underneath.
