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Welcome to sunny Hallandale Beach, Florida! We had a strong showing with yesterday’s core for Gulfstream, with a number of Karma members finishing in the money, so let’s look to keep the streak alive! I really like today’s card, as I think there are a number of cheap horses who offer a lot of value. Let’s take a look below.
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High Price Favorites
Mr Tip $8,500 – Race 11
If you played yesterday, these connections should look awfully familiar. Leparoux finally got off the snide yesterday when taking a field gate to wire in a turf route riding a Calumet horse for Sisterson. I can easily see a repeat of that effort today with Mr Tip. Race 11 has some pretty dreadful horses entered who simply hate winning, so Mr Tip makes a ton of sense as a lightly raced three-year old dropping in class. Leparoux will need to work out a trip from the 12 post to avoid getting hung very wide, but this gelding possesses enough tactical speed that he should be able to get near or on the lead early. He’s the likeliest winner in the race if he avoids a wide trip.
Rockstar Ro $7,000 – Race 3
Rockstar Ro isn’t cheap, carrying a $7,000 price tag, yet he’s actually only the third choice in this race according to the morning line. The Pletcher trained duo figures to attract support, yet I’m dubious of both of them. Shaftesbury is likely the better of the pairing given the fact Irad ends up aboard, but in his most recent work he was green in the gate and clearly second best to Mutarafeq. Pletcher isn’t known for winning with turf sprint first time starters, so I decided to go with a horse with experience in Rockstar Ro. This colt ran third in his debut to Carimba and Verrazanointhesky. Carimba, a Wes Ward trainee, went on to win an allowance race in his next start. Verrazanointhesky, trained by Brad Cox, broke his maiden next out and has since run third in a listed stakes race. In the Kentucky downs race, Rockstar Ro ran a great second to Next, another Ward horse who went on to win a high-level allowance at Keeneland next out. Rockstar Ro’s connections decided to try dirt in his next two starts, and while he wasn’t embarrassed in those events, I think turf is the right surface for this son of Gemologist. I think he has been flattered by the strength of his prior two turf events, and the experience could prove invaluable as he faces a number of debut runners today.
Mid Price Plays
Uptown Queen $6,000 – Race 4
There are very few mid price plays I like on this card, as most of my stable is composed with higher priced horses and some very cheap bombs. Race 4 is a cheap maiden race that feels pretty wide open, and Uptown Queen makes some sense. This filly was off a bit slow in her debut, and while she was never a threat to the winner that day, she incredibly managed to pass six horses in the stretch to get up for second place. She seems like a horse who will appreciate the extra furlong she gets today, and she should take a step forward off of that debut effort. It’s encouraging to see Saez take the mount, as I expect his aggressive tactics will get her into the race earlier.
Value Plays
Charlotte the Brit $250 – Race 8
I will concede that Skye Snow is likely the horse to beat in this race, and I’m hardly against her in this spot. The second and third place runners from the December 2nd race, Little Bit Good and Stephanie on Fleek, also figure to attract support, but I’m interesting in taking a new shooter in this event. Charlotte the Brit spent most of 2020 racing against better company at the Optional Claiming $16k level, and she was generally competitive there while unable to quite win. Connections tried giving her time off and shortening her up to five furlong sprints, but I think that is much too sharp for her, as she always seemed to be finding her best stride a little too late. She was dropped in to the lowest level of her career last out when she clipped heels and lost the rider, and she was claimed out of that race by the always-dangerous Jorge Delgado barn. Delgado gets 27% winners first off the claim, and it’s a positive sign that he moves her up in class despite having cleared claiming jail. I think she’s finally at the right class level and right distance once again, and she could be a handful against this field at a very generous price.
Indicia $750 – Race 5
Race 5 is a tough affair given that most of the field has either just graduated from the maiden ranks or have never raced on turf. Morning line favorite Centsless Drama will look to take them as far as she can on the lead, but she appears to always find one better and settles for second place too often for my taste. She will have other speed to contend with in here, so I’m interested in an off the pace runner in Indicia. At first glance, the form appears a bit suspect, but I think it may not be as bad as it appears. While she doesn’t run poorly on dirt, if you only look at her turf speed figures you’ll note that she owns some of the best figures in this field. She gets a cozy inside post, with the rail winning at 26% going one mile on the turf so far this meet. I think she can save all the ground sitting behind a fast pace and make a big late run for an upset chance.
