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Welcome to closing day at Del Mar! While it is sad that today is the last day of the Del Mar Bing Crosby meet, it means we have one last chance to earn some money on StableDuel before the contests move to a different track. Yesterday Stableduel hosted their $10,000 Guaranteed Invitational tournament, and our DFSKarma members did outstanding, with multiple top 10 entries!
I’m taking a slightly different approach today than the standard article format. Most people can find an $8,500 horse that they like to use for a fill-in in their stable. Instead of reviewing horses at each tier, I’m going to highlight a few horses who are coming in for a cheap price and may present a good opportunity to earn points for a small investment. With that said, see below for Caleb’s Live Longshots!
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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Caleb’s Live Longshots
Airman $3,000 – Race 3
$3,000 may not exactly be a total bomb, but I legitimately think Airman is the likeliest winner of this race. That makes his $3,000 price tag extremely attractive. John Shirreffs is a trainer who very rarely wins first out, only getting 10% winners with two-year-old first-time starters. However, he is exceptional with second- time starters, as that percentage jumps all the way up to 30%. Airman raced like a horse who needed a race, breaking slowly and trailing the field before showing late interest and finishing less than four lengths back of the winner. He has been working lights out in the morning, and he gets a big rider upgrade to Rispoli today.
Streaming Tiger $50 and Great Curves $750 – Race 8
If you want a ultra high risk high reward play, look no further than Streaming Tiger and Great Curves in Race 8. I’m lumping these horses together, as I am interested in both of them and they are exiting a common race. Both of these horses got pinballed badly at the break in their first start, with Streaming Tiger likely taking the worst of it. They both made strong middle moves in that race, and Great Curves appeared to have a lot of horse when he was forced to steady in the turn and lose all momentum. He did an excellent job to re-rally and finish as well as he did. Two-year-old horses can easily get discouraged when facing troubled trips such as that, so I would expect both of them to run significantly improved races today as they catch a pretty soft field.
Maxim Rate $3,000 – Race 9
Maxim Rate is another horse who isn’t exactly the type to blow up the tote, but she is once again the likeliest winner of the race and a tremendous overlay at her current price. She ran her eyeballs out last race, posting a monstrous Thorograph figure of 3, the best in the field. There are some serious east coast invaders to deal with in this race, namely Juliet Foxtrot, Sharing, and the Chad Brown trio, but I think Maxim Rate is every bit as talented as those others and she has a home field advantage. Don’t sell too short.
Summer Love $3,000 – Race 4
Summer Love seems a little too slow to win this race based on speed figures, but I think there could be more to this horse than meets the eye. She appeared to be a totally different animal last out when stretched out to a mile, setting very honest fractions while destroying an overmatched field with ease. Pyfer retains the mount, so we already the gameplan will be to get this horse on the lead and try to take them all the way. There is some other speed to contend with here, but I think the aggressive style of Pyfer will allow her to clear the other speed horses, and she should have the stamina to hold on late coming off of the cutback from one mile. She probably isn’t the likeliest winner here, but she is a decent bet to hit the board with significant upset potential.
