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Our core had a good and nearly great day yesterday at Del Mar, finishing in the top 10 for the $50 contest. Let’s try to keep that streak alive as we return to Del Mar today, where we have either a $10 Top Ten contest or a $50 Triple Up format to choose from.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Spielberg $9,800 – Race 8
I feel a little yucky using Spielberg in this spot, he has been a career underachiever so far. However, this is a short field and he truly does tower over most of the others based on his speed figures and quality of competition. He showed heart and guts to win a stretch duel last out despite dropping the whip, and it seems like perhaps he is finally putting it all together. He will be the most-used chalk of the day, but he seems difficult to get around here.
Evoo $8,500 – Race 9
As a rule of thumb, I generally try to avoid spending a significant amount of my budget on a horse who is extremely lightly raced or a maiden. Evoo is a horse who falls into that category. She was very impressive in her debut, flying late and barely missing in a tight photo finish. She should be sharper today after getting some experience under her belt, but there are a lot of other players in here who also stand to improve. She’s probably the likeliest winner, but there is risk associated with that $8,500 price tag.
Mid Price Plays
Tiz Vicious $7,000 – Race 4
Race 4 is down to only four horses after scratches, so this is the kind of race where you want to look towards cheap horses who can get you valuable points without costing you much. However, I actually think Tiz Vicious is the likeliest winner in this field. The Baffert horse Seiche figures to take money, but he has gotten worse in each start since his debut, and even Abel Cedillo abandons ship for another mount. Charlito is the most consistent horse in this bunch, but he’s had enough chances at this level that I’m not keen to back him at an expensive price point. Tiz Vicious appears to have a significant pace advantage over this field as he tries stretching out to a mile. He went way too fast last out and paid the price late, but it’s encouraging that Bob Hess saw fit to claim him for $50,000 and then immediately steps him up in class. I think this colt could make the lead early and never look back.
Time For Ebby $5,000 – Race 5
I’m a little torn on how strongly to support Time For Ebby in today’s race. She had a dreadful ride last out where she was likely much the best, and she now returns to the turf, a surface that has suited her just fine in the past. However, once again we are stuck with Tyler Baze, and he needs to work out a trip from the rail. I don’t have confidence in her pilot, but I do think she offers excellent value at only $5,000. She should sit behind the dueling leaders Sofi’s Gold and Ana Lisa, and with the right trip she could pull off the upset.
Value Plays
Philly Lishes $750 – Race 9
I’ve already talked about the favorite Evoo in this race above, so now let’s look at a few interesting alternates. Philly Lishes exits the same race as both Evoo and Magical Thought, but she arguably had the worst trip of them all that day. She had to steady early on, and she just never seemed able to get involved in the race after that. Richard Baltas horses don’t win often at first asking, as he’s a trainer who tends to give his horses a race or two, so I’m expecting big improvement in her second start out. I don’t think she is necessarily more likely to win than Evoo or Magical Thought, but she isn’t nearly as far behind as her price tag would indicate.
Mongolian Kingdom $500 – Race 4
Once again, we are going to heavily target cheap horses in race 4 due to the small field size. Even if Mongolian Kingdom runs last, he will still earn 20 points, less however many lengths he loses by. As long as he isn’t absolutely trounced by 20 lengths, this is a horse who is nearly free and should get you 10+ points. I also think he has a puncher’s chance in this event. While I’d love to see him try turf, his pedigree nevertheless suggests he will adore any added distance. He got a good education in debut, pressing the pace and taking dirt before passing one horse and tiring late. Enebish Ganbat has good statistics with stretching runners out, as he is 24% with sprint to route runners. He obviously needs improvement to compete here, but I think it’s very likely he steps forward in his second start.
