View our StableDuel Core Plays for today’s track for FREE by clicking HERE!
We’re back today at Keeneland with some midweek action on StableDuel. Today’s contest provides a unique challenge due to Keeneland only having an eight race card for the day. Therefore, everyone will be required to make multiple selections from the same race in order to fill the required ten horse lineup. This makes it even more critical than normal to ensure that you are getting winners when investing on the high dollar horses. Additionally, those diamonds in the rough horses who can run third at very reasonable prices can also make the difference between finishing the contest in the money or losing points.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
If you haven’t signed up yet, click the banner below to start winning with DFS Karma on StableDuel!
High Price Favorites
Spanish Kingdom $8,000 – Race 5
There are a number of very heavy favorites on the main track today, but I think you can create value in those races by targeting mid-priced horses who are likely to finish second or third with upset potential. That being said, this is one favorite who I believe looks tough to get around in this spot. He ran well last time out when setting a hot pace on the Kentucky Derby undercard, tiring late to finish third. He was only beaten by a length two starts back in the stakes race at Keeneland, and he appears to have found a fairly soft field here. He should be forwardly placed in a race without much early speed, and I think he’ll be the one to catch turning for home.
Current $7,500 – Race 3
Current is a horse who has flashed supreme talent on numerous occasions, such as running third by a head to older male turf division leader Zulu Alpha. He’s also been a horse who has been a bit hard to handle. Connections made the ultimate equipment change in gelding this son of Curlin, and he shows a sharp bullet workout on September 28 while working around the dogs on the Saratoga turf course. Some of his prior races would easily win this race today, and I think the new gelding will be a more focused racehorse as he returns to a the site of his Grade 3 Dixiana score.
Mid Price Plays
La Femme Royale $6,500 – Race 6
Queen Nekia is undoubtedly the horse to beat in this spot, as she has been racing against some of the best fillies and mares in the country and gets enormous class relief here. That said, I’m not excited to spend $10,000 on a one-run closer who is inexplicably dropping in class while proving competitive against better. I’m choosing to lean on La Femme Royale instead. She is one of only two potential speed horses in this race, the other being Honey Parade, but she isn’t a mare who necessarily needs the lead. She is riding a three race win streak while making her first start off the layoff, but note that Shirer is 19% with horses coming off of 90+ day breaks. I believe she will be able to set or track the early speed, and she should be a strong candidate to finish in the top three with enough upside to potentially upset the field.
Gambling Cat $3,000 – Race 7
Two-year-old races are always a challenge, but I think the line on this horse is significantly off, so let’s take advantage of the overlaid price. Gambling Cat was a flashy debut winner, rallying from the rear to just get up by a neck late. She did have a hot pace to set up her late run that day, but there appears to be enough speed signed on today that she should once again get a favorable setup. Mike Maker doesn’t typically win with two-year-old horses on debut, and if this filly can improve off of that first start she will be a handful today.
Value Plays
Churn N Burn $1,000 – Race 5
Due to the eight race card today, it is necessary to double up with multiple selections from the same race. I recommend trying to target the likeliest winner and then a horse in the $1,000 range who has a strong chance to hit the board. Churn N Burn fits the bill perfectly. He ran a strong race last out when switched to the turf, and he now stretches out to a distance that he is well-bred to handle. Kentucky Downs form has held up well at Keeneland in recent years, and Churn N Burn is a strong contender to improve in his second turf race while stretching out to a better distance.
Logical Myth $750 – Race 3
Logical Myth has already established himself as a strong turf horse, posting four wins from thirteen starts, but he really appeared to take a step forward in his last start in his first start as a gelding. He was able to navigate a mile over the undulating Kentucky Downs course, which is much more taxing a mile on a standard turf course, so he might be able to handle the marathon distance he faces today. Joe Sharp has this one in sharp form, and he poses a decent chance to hit the board at generous odds.
