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StableDuel has a great contest today at Keeneland with entries starting at just $10, so let’s beat that Preakness hangover and win some money! There are quite a few two-year-old races on the card today, which are always difficult handicapping puzzles. Additionally, heavy favorite Golden Pal scratches from Race 6, which makes that race a must play due to the overlays it creates on every other horse in the field. As always, make sure you hop into discord to get the latest updates in case of scratches or bad weather!
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Ollies Candy $9,000 – Race 9
Many people will flock to Shedaresthedevil in this spot after her Kentucky Oaks win, a win that flatters her even more after Swiss Skydiver won the Preakness yesterday. However, it’s never easy to face older horses for the first time, and that Oaks effort from Shedaresthedevil seemed to pop up out of nowhere. I’d like to see her repeat that effort before I support her at a high price tag. Instead, I prefer the older mare Ollies Candy, who is as consistent as the day is long and always fires. I think she wins outright, but she is nearly a lock for a top two finish.
Mid Price Plays
Proverb $7,500 – Race 3
I debated whether or not Proverb at $7,500 is considered a high priced or mid priced play, but given he is the third choice in a six horse field, I elected to place him here. Knicks Go will be awfully difficult to beat if he repeats that last race, but it is concerning that he was laid up for over seven months following that big effort, and he is a horse known to thrown a clunker here or there. Proverb is a nicely developing four-year-old moving through his conditions who seemed to take a key step forward in his last race when blasting a field of six and recording a career best speed figure. With six weeks off to recover from that effort, I expect another strong showing from him today.
Mahomes Money $5,000 – Race 4
Race 4 is a challenging race from a StableDuel perspective, as there are a lot of unknowns to contend with. I’m choosing to go with a more known entity in Mahomes Money. This colt set a respectable pace last out before tiring late to run fifth. However, that race was held at a mile and one sixteenth, which may have been a little too far for him at this point of his development. He now cuts back to six furlongs after getting that conditioning race under his belt last out, and I think he could be tracking the pace and overtake the leaders late in a race that lacks any clear standout.
Value Plays
Esperer $1,000 – Race 10
There are quite a few value plays on this ten race card, and Esperer is one who fits the bill. She ran an even fifth in her debut while going five furlongs at Del Mar, but she seems like a horse who was never going to be successful running that short. Oliver ships her east to Keeneland and now stretches her out to a mile, a distance that she appears much better suited for. I think she got a lot from that debut race while recording a respectable speed figure, and if she steps forward in her second start on the stretch out, I think she could be dangerous.
Agog $250 – Race 6
This race becomes a must-play race after the scratches of Golden Pal and Wink, the heavy favorite and third betting choice, respectively. We now have a short field of six horses, and I think Agog provides incredible value at only $250. She has ample early speed at her disposal, and she only needs to beat one other horse to secure points in this race. I think she has a legitimate chance to outright win, so she offers excellent value for her low price.
