View our StableDuel Core Plays for today’s track for FREE by clicking HERE!
StableDuel once again is offering three tracks for contests today, but with Pimlico coming off the turf, I think Keeneland presents the best opportunity. They have a great ten race card, but be warned that many of these races look wide open. I don’t think there is a favorite shorter than 2/1 on the entire day, and multiple two-year-old races will certainly add to the chaos. With that being said, let’s take a look at some of the horses I’ll be targeting today. As always, make sure you hop into discord to get the latest updates in case of scratches or bad weather!
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
If you haven’t signed up yet, click the banner below to start winning with DFS Karma on StableDuel!
High Price Favorites
Eel Point $9,000 – Race 1
When you’re dropping $9,000 on a horse, you want to be almost certain that your horse will run no worse than second. Race 1 is a fairly compact field of six, and Eel Point projects to be the lone speed from an inside post. While I don’t think he is necessarily a lock to win, I do think every other horse in this race is too expensive relative to their chance of winning, and Eel Point has the highest floor.
I Hear You $8,000 – Race 7
This race appears to be a two horse match race between I Hear You and Luck Money. I give the edge to I Hear You at a slightly better price. She broke her maiden over this Keeneland course earlier this summer, she is lightly raced, and she already owns some of the fastest speed figures in this field. Any improvement at all will make her a handful here, and $8,000 is a fair price.
Mid Price Plays
Cardamon $6,500 – Race 3
To be honest, there aren’t many great mid-priced plays on today’s card. Most races have multiple horses in the $7,500 – $9,000 range with a few others who seem pretty hopeless for $500. I think Cardamon is one of the rare mid-range horses who presents reasonable value. There isn’t much early speed in this race, so Cardamon should make the early lead and set comfortable fractions. Given the small field of only six horses, she feels like a safe play to get us some points, while also having upside to actually pull off the upset.
Aurelia Garland $5,000 – Race 4
While it may seem difficult to take a horse at $5,000 who has never raced on grass before, I cannot overlook the fact that ace turf jockey Umberto Rispoli is taking the mount on her today. He was absolutely dominant on the turf on the west coast all summer, and this is his only mount of the day. Aurelia Garland’s speed figures on dirt are already easily fast enough to win, so if she can transfer that form to turf, she will be an incredible bargain in this race today.
Value Plays
Absolutely Aiden $750 – Race 8
Both of my value plays come in the same race today, the Grade 2 Phoenix Stakes. I normally don’t like to double up in a single race, and I almost never double up on long shots, but I can’t help but think that the prices in this race are significantly off. Absolutely Aiden has been in razor sharp form lately, and he is coming in off of a two race winning streak. He has tons of tactical speed, and if he can manage to avoid getting cooked in a speed duel with No Parole, he has considerable upset potential.
Copper Town $750 – Race 8
There was a time where Copper Town would have vied for favoritism in a race like this, as it’s never been a question of talent for this horse. Unfortunately, he’s been repeatedly sidelined with injuries over the past few years. He has moved into the Ward barn, and he finally seems to be healthy once again. Two races ago, he had a huge effort when you note that the winner, CZ Rocket, is now on a five race win streak. Two of those wins came in Grade 2 stakes, and he is currently the favorite for the Breeder’s Cup Sprint. Copper Town’s “A race” wins this race today, and at the low price of $750, I am willing to pay to find out if he still has it. Update: Copper Town has been scratched from this race today.
