View our StableDuel Core Plays for today’s track for FREE by clicking HERE!
Our core plays over the weekend stayed red hot, as we had in the money finishes in both Santa Anita contests on Friday and Saturday! Let’s keep the streak alive as we revert back to the “double-up” format in today’s challenge. The top 40% of today’s contest will double their money! Today’s card is extremely challenging from a StableDuel budget perspective, as there are multiple races with short fields and each horse costs as least $3,000. Let’s take a closer look at a few contenders.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
As Time Goes By $11,000 – Race 2
$11,000 is an incredibly steep price to pay, but Baffert seems to hold all the cards in this race. While some folks may elect to take a bargain horse here considering it’s a five horse field, I’m concerned that the two Baffert entries may beat the rest of the field by 10+ lengths, eliminating any points you may earn by clunking up for third or fourth. Given the relatively similar prices between the two Baffert horses, I’m going with the one who I feel is the likeliest winner with As Time Goes By. This filly was off slow in her debut and made a nice middle move to contest before flattening out late. She should be sharper in her second start today, and I think she gets the job done as the heavy favorite.
Gate Speed $8,000 – Race 6
The aptly named Gate Speed should bring plenty of early lick to the table today, as he projects to have a significant early pace advantage over this field. His job was made easier by the scratch of Quick Finish. Look for Gate Speed to clear the field early and be the one to catch late.
Mid Price Plays
Inch $5,000 – Race 5
Morning Line favorite Much More Halo probably should win this race, but he’s finished second in five of eight career starts, so it’s fair to wonder if he might just be a horse who lacks that killer instinct. I’m going to play against him in this spot and use Inch. There isn’t much speed in this race, which could possibly compromise Inch’s chances, but I feel that he may have more tactical speed than he’s displayed recently. Inch gets a huge rider upgrade to Rispoli, and I think he’ll have him more involved early on.
Roses and Candy $3,000 – Race 3
I’ll concede that Roses and Candy is not the type of horse I’d normally choose in a race like this. However, my strategy today was focused on getting the most value from the expensive favorites, and then trying to fill in the rest of the stable with cheaper horses who may run 3rd-5th. Roses and Candy fits the bill here. This mare is far from a win machine, but there are only six horses in this race, and I have serious doubts about the favorite Boomchicaboom. Roses and Candy ran a strong race in February at this distance over this course when finishing third at the same level she’s at today. I can forgive her June race when racing against tougher foes after a lengthy layoff, and she broke through the gate prior to the start in her last race, compromising her chances. She has enough speed to be within striking distance early, and she might be able to hold on for a piece late at a nice value.
Value Plays
Kiss Today Goodbye $750 – Race 9
Race 9 has an abundance of early speed signed on, so I think this race could set up for an off the pace runner such as Kiss Today Goodbye. With at least three frontrunners entered today, I’m expected the losers of the early pace battle to fade badly and run up the track. While Kiss Today Goodbye has not yet won on turf, he made a strong closing run last out in the Del Mar Derby to make up eight lengths in the stretch. The pace should be hotter today, and Kiss Today Goodbye should be more fit as he makes his third start off the layoff. There are some nice horses in here, so a win may be unlikely, but I think he should earn points at a very fair price.
Breakfast Ball $1,000 – Race 7
I prefer Dim Lights in this race, and if you’ve checked the core plays you’ll notice I’ve listed Dim Lights as my play in this race. However, I’m electing to skip a race today and double up in Race 7 using Breakfast Ball. Race 7 has a ton of early pace signed on, and Breakfast Ball is the only true closer in the field. I think the cutback from a mile to five and a half furlongs should suit this filly just fine. When the front of this race starts to melt turning for home, I expect Breakfast Ball to be running on late. This horse has upset potential with a strong chance to hit the board.
