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We are back today for some Santa Anita Sunday action! Our core plays and article highlighted horses were good enough to secure in the money finishes in all three of the “Double Up” contest this week, but we are back to the standard format today. Keeneland has a rough card full of maidens, so I’m going to focus on Santa Anita instead. There are a number of strong favorites late in the card who I think demand to be included, so I’m going to attempt to find some value plays early in the card in order to have budget left for those strong favorites late.
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Rockie Causeway $9,800 – Race 8
While the $9,800 price tag is certainly hard to swallow, there is no questioning that Rockie Causeway is the horse to beat in this race today. She’s finished second in her last two races while easily being best over her main rival Rose’s Crystal, and she possesses a tactical edge in this field without much early pace. Jockey Flavian Prat jumps off, but Umberto Rispoli is certainly more than capable of getting the job done today.
Little Miss Ellie $11,000 – Race 2
While I recognize that Little Miss Ellie is a deserving favorite in this race, I’m actually against her in this spot. $11,000 is an incredibly steep price to pay for a horse who seems to lack that killer instinct, as she has settled for second place in all three of her career starts to date. She was aided by a closer bias in her first two starts, and she failed to get the job done last out as the 3/2 favorite. There aren’t any monsters in this race, so it wouldn’t surprise me if she won, but she isn’t the kind of horse I want to spend $11,000 on. I feel Jan Jan Can or Rickie Nine Toes offer great value to earn points in this small five horse field at much better prices.
Mid Price Plays
California Street $3,000 – Race 7
Morning line favorite Microrithms has done nothing wrong since returning from a lengthy layoff, winning both of his starts on the front. However, it’s interesting to note that Baffert continues to run this horse at the n2x allowance condition while entering him for a tag, making him eligible to be claimed. I tend to think if this was a real Baffert star that he would be targeting a listed stakes or n3x condition where he isn’t forced to be entered for the tag. He can certainly win, but I’m going to look elsewhere for better value. California Street was a very nice dirt sprinter for most of 2019, running against stakes caliber horses such as Flagstaff, Omaha Beach, and Shancelot. Connections decided to try stretching him out to a mile, and it seems he just hasn’t held the same late kick when being forced to go two turns. I think the cutback to a sprint is perfect for this six-year-old gelding, and while it’s a tall task to run down Microrithms, I think California Street could fill out the minor awards at a nice price.
Edit: Microrithms has scratched from this race, which removes a key pace factor that was likely to help California Street. California Street is still usable, but also upgrade Grinning Tiger who may get loose on the lead now.
Bold Endeavor $5,000 – Race 6
Race 6 is a nice race to go for a value horse as it only drew six entries and the top five should earn points. Bold Endeavor may look to be in poor form recently, but I think that has more to do with him being spotted in the wrong races. Last out, going a mile and a half against graded stakes company was asking far too much of him. Given his pedigree, he was never likely to be successful on turf or synthetic surfaces, so ignore those races as well. He ran reasonably well when against n2x allowance foes and listed stakes company, but more than likely he simply isn’t good enough to win races like that. He finally gets a drop to a more reasonable level today for a $32,000 claiming race, and I think he will wake up on the drop and overpower today’s field.
Value Plays
Gates of Heaven $500 – Race 3
I’m taking a gamble on a low priced horse here in Gates of Heaven. This colt is a son of Kantharos, who gets 16% winners with horses trying turf for the first time. Gates of Heaven flashed speed from an inside post at Del Mar in his debut. The track played strongly towards outside stalkers for most of the meet. I’m forgiving of the fact he tired badly in that effort. He has returned to put in two strong workouts, and I’m expecting that experience edge to help him step forward in his second start today.
Don’t Stop Lookin $1,000 – Race 4
This pick definitely has potential to blow up in my face, but I’m going to take a flier on a bargain horse Don’t Stop Lookin in race 4. This horse is admittedly an unlikely win candidate in this field, but all of the higher priced horses are entering with big questions to answer. Heart River steps up to open company after running last in restricted nonwinners of two races lifetime company, and she gets a significant jockey downgrade to Jorge Velez. Sherilinda may be the safe bet here at $7,500, but she also is moving up in class and has a jockey who has yet to hit the board from 12 mounts this meet. Dehydration would crush this field if she returns to her Del Mar form, but that last race was too poor to ignore. Perhaps she isn’t the same horse on the barn switch or she doesn’t care for the Santa Anita surface. Flying Business is probably your winner, but she also ran a dud last out against weaker foes than she faces today. Don’t Stop Lookin is actually dropping in class when running a better than looks 4th last out. She clearly enjoys racing at Santa Anita, as she has a win and a second from four starts over this track, and I think she is a decent bet to run second or third if one or two of the favorites don’t fire their best shot today.
