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StableDuel is running a promotion today where everyone who beats Swift (stable name: Bri No Yeezys) in the Woodbine $25 contest gets a $10 game credit. Additionally, one player will be randomly selected to win a $250 bonus! The added incentives make Woodbine the most attractive track for the day. It certainly is not an easy day given some huge field sizes and very cheap horses. Let’s take a look below.
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High Price Favorites
Music Tribute $8,000 – Race 1
I honestly don’t think there is a single “sure thing” favorite on the entire card today at Woodbine. Of the higher priced horses, Music Tribute appears to be one of the safer bets to earn substantial points. He is the only proven frontrunner in this field of maidens, and he made the lead last time out facing better horses before tiring and being forced to check late. Look for him to make the lead early and try to hold them all off late.
Showbiz Lady $8,500 – Race 7
Showbiz Lady is a a bit of a risk as far as spending $8,500 goes, considering there is quite a lot of other speed in this field. The key advantage Showbiz Lady brings to the table is that she has proven that she can sit off the pace in her start two back and actually pass horses. That might be key in this race today that looks to have a hot pace. She has been running well since moving into the McKnight barn, and the outside draw should give her rider options to observe how the race is setting up before committing to making his move.
Mid Price Plays
Cherubic $3,000 – Race 3
Cherubic may be a tough horse to love at first glance, as she’s failed to hit the board in 10 career starts, but I think there are reasons to be optimistic about her chances today. First, she has ran against much better horses for the vast majority of those 10 starts, and she’s never been at as low of a level as she is in today. Additionally, she set very honest fractions last out when hung 4-5 wide into the turn, yet she never quit and kept trying hard all the way to the wire. She now gets stretched out to 8.5 furlongs, a distance that should suit her just fine based on her pedigree. She should be lone speed in a field full of dull plodders, so if she can manage to get the distance I think she is a big threat to take them gate to wire.
Value Plays
Dani’s Victory $250 – Race 5
Last time I gave out a $250 horse, it lost a photo finish at the wire at odds of 48/1, so let’s see if we can recapture some of that magic. I’ll concede that Dani’s Victory is not the likeliest winner in the race, and if you have $1000+ left in your budget I would probably go for a horse like Lapochka or Wile E Peyote instead. However, Dani’s Victory offers tremendous upside at an absurdly low price point for those of you struggling to find one last bomb to round out your stable. This race projects to have a hot pace, so I think off-the-pace runners will have an edge. Additionally, Dani’s Victory has improved in every start this year, showing that she is knocking off the rust of the lengthy layoff with each consecutive race. Ignore her last out race, as she has been much better over turf and that race was transferred to the synthetic track. She’s had some gate issues with the break lately, but if she manages to get out of the gate cleanly and avoids traffic issues, she’s one who might blow up the board and run 3rd at a very generous price.
Sky Magician $1,000 – Race 5
We’re doubling down on race 5, as I think this race is the best opportunity to catch a low priced horse and earn some points. I think the morning line of 10/1 ($1000 StableDuel price) is way off, as I expect this horse to likely vie for favoritism come post time. That is the kind of horse we want to take advantage of in our stables. Michael Trombetta has been on a hot streak at Woodbine this year, winning at a 38% clip. Sky Magician has been facing stronger horses domestically in the mid-Atlantic tracks, and I think he will appreciate the subtle class relief from the trip up north. As mentioned earlier, there should be enough early speed here to set the race up for a closer, and if Sky Magician can avoid getting a super wide trip I think he is the horse to beat.
