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We are back today for some Santa Anita Sunday action! Field sizes are quite small today, so it’ll be crucial to pick your spots carefully when targeting expensive horses. Despite the short fields, I think we’ve identified a few bargain plays who may outrun their odds. Let’s dive in!
If you need a refresher on scoring, please refer back to our debut article that goes a little more in-depth, located here.
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High Price Favorites
Psycho Dar $9,400 – Race 3
Psycho Dar won last out when facing a stronger field than he finds today, and he once again projects to be lone speed. Seeing him drop in class after winning last out is somewhat concerning, but it seems more likely that connections are just being realistic rather than trying to dump the horse. He should make the lead early and be very tough to catch late.
First Empress $8,500 – Race 6
Race 6 is a pretty weak field of bottom level claiming horses, and I don’t trust the favorite Apache Pass. Maybe she is just as good as her last race indicates, but that effort seemed to come out of nowhere. I would be hesitant to back her at an expensive price. Instead, I’m electing to go for First Empress. She broke her maiden on this track and at this distance, but she has been racing at levels too strong for her for most of her career. She ran a strong second place two starts back to next-out winner Destiny’s Journey, and last out she was cooked in a brutal speed duel before tiring late. I imagine Hernandez keeps her just off the pace today and looks to make his move into the far turn. She isn’t cheap, but I believe she’s the likeliest winner in this field.
Mid Price Plays
Unicorn $5,000 – Race 4
With only five horses in this field, this is a great race to take a shot with a lower priced horse to simply try to get points for running second or third. I honestly think Unicorn has a strong chance to outright win. She has always been a highly-regarded filly, but she’s had some issues putting it all together. Neither of the Baffert entries are particularly intimidating in this spot, and Unicorn appears to have the most upside of the remaining three horses in the race. There isn’t much speed here, so she will need to find a way to stay involved in the race early, but she has upset potential.
Zipper Mischief $3,000 – Race 9
I think getting Zipper Mischief for only $3,000 is an absolute steal. This gelding has run speed figures fast enough to win in each of his past three starts. He should be the inside speed of this race, and with Shady Empire scratching out there is a chance Zipper Mischief gets loose on the lead. Take advantage of this questionable morning line for a horse who should be second or third choice in this field.
Value Plays
Starship Sky $500 – Race 5
There aren’t many appealing value plays today, so I’m taking a shot with Starship Sky in the fifth race. This filly has flashed ability at times, such as when running third in a maiden special weight affair at Santa Anita on March 20, but she isn’t the most consistent sort. She finally gets some much needed class relief as she drops in for a tag for the first time on turf while making her first start for new connections. I expect her to be more forwardly placed today with the addition of blinkers and jockey upgrade to aggressive pilot Juan Hernandez. She should be a solid bet to hit the board with upside to outright win.
Golden Doughnut $1,000 – Race 9
If you wanted to double up on one of those five or six horse fields, I certainly would not fault anyone for using that strategy. However, I couldn’t find a value play in those small fields that I liked, so I ended up with Golden Doughnut in the nightcap. This gelding has set or contested fast paces in three of his last four starts before tiring late. Last time out, he looked threatening turning for home before flattening out late. This horse seems like one who will benefit from the cutback. Franco will need to work out a trip from the far outside post, but if he can avoid getting hung too wide into the turn, I believe he has a right to run a big race today.
