During the “regular season” (or so I call it), my PGA Punt Plays article was fire for the last month or two. Almost every week near the end I targeted and touted an extremely cheap golfer that wound up finishing in the top 10 (a handful in the top 5!). I now will take that same approach and research and apply it to a handful of golfers who may or may not get a ton of exposure, but who I think match up perfectly with the event’s course and who have decent recent form.
WGC-HSBC CHAMPIONS
This week’s event is played in China at the Sheshan International GC. It is a Par 72 that will play at 7,261 yards and feature Bermuda greens. This is a NO CUT event.
Paul Casey -$9200 DK | $11400 FD
In terms of tournament history, Casey has played this event 4 of the last 5 years and 23rd is his worst finish. He fired off back to back top 12 finishes the last two years here. On top of a decent track record, I also think Casey is decent in his recent form. A “Decent Recent”. I just filed the trademark for that just now. He comes in at 18th overall in total strokes gained. His best stats are 14th in SG: T2G, 11th in SG: ARG, 10th in SG: T2G, and 5th in SG: APP. His recent form with putting on Bermuda is middle of the pack though so have a little caution.
Adam Scott – $8400 DK | $10100 FD
Adam Scott sucks here, then does well, then sucks, then does well. Keeping with that pattern, he should do well here this go around. Adam Scott is has the best recent form of all of this week’s plays. He comes in at 2nd overall in total strokes gained. ALL of his recent stats are in the top four EXCEPT for 14th in SG: SG and 31st in SG: P. Another one with slight caution on Bermuda putting.
Billy Horschel – $8000 DK | $9500 FD
Billy-Boy hasn’t competed here in a while, and the last time he did he was 73rd, so course history is not why we are looking at him this week. Billy’s recent form is almost as good as Scott’s AND he doesn’t suck on Bermuda, well recently anyway. He is 4th overall in total strokes gained. Every stat is in the top 7 EXCEPT for 21st in SG: ARG and 12th in SG: OTT.
Kevin Na – $7400 DK | $8900 FD
Like Billy Boy, Na doesn’t have amazing track history here either. He did finish 20th back in 2015 though. Na comes in at 8th overall in total strokes gained. He is 1st overall in SG: SG AND SG: P, aka he rocks Bermuda, he OWNS Bermuda. Everything else is top 18 sans 22nd in SG: OTT and 23rd in SG: ARG.
Russell Knox – $7300 DK | $8700 FD
Knox won the whole dang thing in 2016 and followed it with a 9th overall the following year. On top of a solid track record, Knox come in as a Decent Recent as well. 6th overall in total strokes gained. Each stat in top 4 EXCEPT for 24th in SG: ARG, 25th in SG: P, and 28th in SG: SG. Knox does not own Bermuda.
Hometown Hero: Ashun Wu – $6800 DK | $7300 FD
Chinese native who plays this course every year. 3 top 23 finishes in the last 4 years. He comes extremely discounted for someone who is very familiar with this course. He doesn’t have any recent form stats to tout or dismay. Remember it’s a no cut event, so punt away.
Stat Key
SG – Strokes Gained
SG: TOT – Total
SG: T2G – Tee to Green
SG: BS – Ball Striking
SG: SG – Short Game
SG: OTT – Off the Tee
SG: APP – Approach
SG: ARG – Around the Green
SG: P – Putting
