Weekly Primer: World Golf Championship: Mexico
The goal with my weekly primer is to provide you with a one-stop guide to equip you with all of the information that you need to make your picks and assemble your lineups. From course previews, to history, stats, and pick suggestions, this guide will provide a concrete base as you conduct your own research and submit your winning picks and lineups.
2018 WGC: Mexico Recap
This tournament ended a five year drought for Phil Mickelson has he lifted the trophy after his triumph over Justin Thomas in a playoff. Mickelson only needed one playoff hole to top Thomas. Even with Phil’s win, the story of the week was Justin Thomas. JT shot a 72 on Thursday, a 70 on Friday, and then proceeded to set the course record with a 62 on Saturday. He was still on fire on Sunday as he birdied five of his first 12 holes to force the eventual playoff with Mickelson. Both Phil and JT have been playing well lately coming into this tournament so another strong performance this week would not be surprising.
Course Preview
Dates: February 21-24
Where: Mexico City, Mexico
Course: Club de Golf Chapultepec
Architect: Willie Smith (1921); Percy Clifford (1972)
Par/Yards: Par 71; 7,345 yards
Greens: Poa Annua
Fairways/Rough: Kikuyu
Field: 72 golfers; no cut
Defending Champion: Phil Mickelson
Purse: $10,250,000 ($1,745,000 to the winner)
FedEx Cup Points: 550 points to the winner
Withdrawals: J.B. Holmes, Si Woo Kim, and Andrew Putnam
Club de Golf Chapultepec is longer than the Genesis Open last week but it will play much shorter due to the change in elevation. The course will play closer to 6,700 yards after accounting for the elevation and will be a much less-than-driver course that will have many golfers clubbing down. This course was the 31st most difficult course in 2018 with an average score just slightly above 70. Driving distance and accuracy are not too important this week. The fairways are lined with trees and the greens are tricky enough that it saw players like Justin Rose and Fransesco Molinari surrender multiple three putts so proximity and putting on Poa will be important this week.
Weather Outlook
This week will be a complete juxtaposition to the weather that the golfers experienced last week. Rain won’t play a factor this week and wind will be mild. Should be great weather conditions for golf this week.
Official World Golf Rankings: OWGR Top 50 in the Field
Course History Targets
Course history can be extremely insightful when evaluating how a course fits a particular player and if a player has “an eye” for the course itself. Here is a breakdown of some notable players that have performed well and finished inside the Top-30 at this tournament in the past. It is important to note this week to only take the past two years into consideration since this tournament changed venues starting in 2017.
Recent Performance Targets
Just as important, if not more so, when selecting a roster is recent performance. You will see certain golfers go on a tear and post consecutive high-finishing results. This can translate to good form and a mental advantage as they tee it up the next week. Here is breakdown of some notable players that have been performing well as of recent and have at least one Top-20 in their last five starts.
Key Stats From Past Winners
The stats that stick out from the last three winners of this tournament and that I will be keying on this week are:
- SG: Ball Striking
- SG: Approach
- Birdie-or-Better Percentage
- SG: Par 5s
- SG: Par 4s
A few other important stats that I may factor in are also Putting on Poa, Proximity, and Opportunities Gained.
The Approach
Before I even begin making picks I will break down the field into six tiers A-F. When you have fields of 100+ golfers then it can be overwhelming to scroll back-and-forth and up-and-down when making picks. DraftKings has a useful tool where you can export the entire DK roster with salaries to a CSV and open in Excel which I would highly recommend and then break down the picks from there.
When I am assembling my lineups or placing my bets, I will look at just about every stat that I can while also looking at course history and recent performance. There are certain players that just perform well at certain courses. Webb Simpson at the Wyndham, Zach Johnson at the John Deere, Jordan Spieth at the Master’s, Bubba Watson at any course that he has won, etc. You also have to look at how players are performing leading up to the tournament.
Two other factors that I take into account are the OWGR and the betting odds. Vegas always knows something that you don’t, so when I see a golfer in the sub-8k range and see he has the same odds as golfers in the 9-10k range then he is someone that I have to consider.
The Picks
My favorite play in the $10k and above range for the second straight week is Justin Thomas. I feel like he will be motivated this week after his disappointing loss at Riviera. JT is 10th in proximity and 5th in both SG: Putting and Opportunities Gained over the last 24 rounds. This is in addition to the key stats, recent performance, and tournament history. He has the course record here as well and should be in contention come Sunday.
Also Consider: Jon Rahm—$10,700 (OWGR: 6, 16/1)
Once again for the second week in a row, my pick to win this week is Xander Schauffele. Three of his four PGA Tour wins have come at events similar to this and no cut events. After making the cut last week on the number, he continued to have a strong third and fourth round and posted a quiet but impressive Top 15 finish. This week he doesn’t have to worry about missing the cut and gets four full rounds to score and post birdies. We have seen him go low at just about any time and the risk of him being a “wild card” is nullified with the no-cut format. Schauffele’s putting left him a little bit this last week which was very atypical. He ranks 10th in SG: Putting over the last 50 rounds on Poa.
Also Consider: Hideki Matsuyama—$9,000 (OWGR: 26, 30/1)
Tony Finau at sub-$9k? Sign me up. He never wins but still scores like crazy for your DFS lineups as evidenced by ranking 3rd in DK points over the last 50 rounds. Finau ranks 4th in opportunities gained over the last 24 and 50 rounds and although he is not known for his ability to putt, he does rank 21st and 24th in SG: Putting on Poa over the 24 and 50 rounds, respectively. Guaranteed four rounds from Finau has me firing him up in cash and GPPs this week.
One of my favorite GPP plays this week is Webb Simpson. His approach game and Par 4 efficiency stats are stellar and his hot putting from last year hasn’t cooled off lately as evidenced by ranking 6th in SG: Putting on Poa over the last 24 rounds. Webb also ranks 15th and 16th in opportunities gained over the last 24 and 50 rounds, respectively. I don’t anticipate Webb being highly-owned this week which could pay off he can post a good finish in this star-studded field.
Also Consider: Sergio Garcia—$8,000 (OWGR: 29, 45/1)
Where his course history lacks, his stats and recent form more than make up for. Gary Woodland is coming into the tournament off back-to-back Top 10 finishes and ranks in the Top 10 in almost every major statistical category that I am focusing on this week. He also ranks 8th in Proximity and 13th in Opportunities Gained over the last 24 rounds. He has had a couple of weeks to rest which means that he didn’t have to grind through the long days at the Genesis Open and got a head start on preparation for this week. At under $8k, Woodland is a great option.
Also Consider: Henrik Stenson—$7,200 (OWGR: 35, 70/1); Alex Noren—$7,100 (OWGR: 25, 100/1)
My final play is Tyrrell Hatton. His course history boasts back-to-back Top 10s with a T-3 finish last year. His stats don’t automatically pop out at you but keep in mind that he plays mostly in Europe where it is difficult to get a full feel for him. However, I do like his price and course history this week. We have seen him compete in elite fields in the past couple of years and would expect him to compete once again.
Also Consider: Kyle Stanley—$6,400 (OWGR: 39, 250/1); Russell Knox—$6,800 (OWGR: 63, 90/1)
Good Luck!
-Steven Quezada, @stevenquezadaTX
