Weekly Primer: Valero Texas Open
The goal with my weekly primer is to provide you with a one-stop guide to equip you with all of the information that you need to make your picks and assemble your lineups. From course previews, to history, stats, and pick suggestions, this guide will provide a concrete base as you conduct your own research and submit your winning picks and lineups.
2018 Valero Texas Open Recap
Last year we saw Andrew Landry become a first time PGA Tour winner by shooting -17 and winning by two shots over Sean O’Hair and Trey Mullinax. Landry was tied with Zach Johnson going into Sunday and shot four under in his final round while Johnson had an even round shooting a 72 and finishing a solo 5th place. Landry’s consistency prevailed as he was the only golfer to card rounds in the 60s in all four rounds. Former champion Jimmy Walker finished solo 4th and continued his strong performance in his home state of Texas. Mullinax carded the low score of the week and set the course record with a 62 on Saturday that set him up for his highest finish on tour to date.
Course Preview
Dates: April 4-7
Where: San Antonio, Texas
Course: TPC San Antonio—AT&T Oaks Course
Architect: Pete Dye and Greg Norman
Par/Yards: Par 72; 7,435 yards
Greens: Champion Bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis and Velvet Bentgrass
Stimpmeter: 11
Fairways/Rough: TifSport Bermuda overseeded with Perennial Ryegrass and chewing fescue
Field: 144 golfers; Top 70 and ties make the cut after 36 holes
Defending Champion: Andrew Landry
Purse: $7,500,000 ($1,350,000 to the winner)
FedEx Cup Points: 500 points to the winner
Past Champions in Field: Andrew Landry (2018), Charley Hoffman (2016), Jimmy Walker (2015), Martin Laird (2013), Brendan Steele (2011)
Withdrawals:
Nestled in the hill country of South Texas (yes, Texas is not just comprised of rolling flatlands and plains) TPC San Antonio sprawls over 70 acres and boats 64 bunkers and 3 water hazards throughout the 18 holes. TPC San Antonio ranked as the 12th most difficult course in 2018. Scoring on the four Par 5s has led to success in the past. Last year, there were 24 eagles made on the Par 5s here. This course lets you rip it off the tee to setup golfers for manageable approach shots close to the pin. There are plenty of birdies to be had so avoiding bogeys and increasing scoring opportunities will both be key this week. You will probably hear a lot of commentary this week as well about Sergio Garcia having been a consultant on parts of the course redesign. However, after teeing it up at the Match Play last week, Sergio will not be in the field this week.
Weather Outlook
As with many of the courses down in Texas, wind can play a factor. Gusts aren’t expected to exceed 15 mph all week so wind may not play as big of a factor as in the past but rain is expected to fall on Saturday and could make this course play a little longer Saturday and Sunday.
Official World Golf Rankings: OWGR Top 50 in the Field
Key Stats From Past Winners
The stats that stick out from the last three winners of this tournament and that I will be keying on this week are:
- SG: Ball Striking
- SG: Par 5s
- Opportunities Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
- Proximity
- Birdies-or-Better Gained
Course History Targets
Course history can be extremely insightful when evaluating how a course fits a particular player and if a player has “an eye” for the course itself. Here is a breakdown of some notable players that have performed well and finished inside the Top-30 at this tournament in the past.
Recent Performance Targets
Just as important, if not more so, when selecting a roster is recent performance. You will see certain golfers go on a tear and post consecutive high-finishing results. This can translate to good form and a mental advantage as they tee it up the next week. Here is breakdown of some notable players that have been performing well as of recent and have at least one Top-20 in their last five starts.
The Approach
Before I even begin making picks I will break down the field into six tiers A-F. When you have fields of 100+ golfers then it can be overwhelming to scroll back-and-forth and up-and-down when making picks. DraftKings has a useful tool where you can export the entire DK roster with salaries to a CSV and open in Excel which I would highly recommend and then break down the picks from there.
When I am assembling my lineups or placing my bets, I will look at just about every stat that I can while also looking at course history and recent performance. There are certain players that just perform well at certain courses. Webb Simpson at the Wyndham, Zach Johnson at the John Deere, Jordan Spieth at the Master’s, Bubba Watson at any course that he has won, etc. You also have to look at how players are performing leading up to the tournament.
Two other factors that I take into account are the OWGR and the betting odds. Vegas always knows something that you don’t, so when I see a golfer in the sub-8k range and see he has the same odds as golfers in the 9-10k range then he is someone that I have to consider.
The Picks
The Pick: Rickie Fowler—$11,700 (Model Rank: 8)
Also Consider: Sungjae Im—$10,100 (Model Rank: 1)
The Pick: Jason Kokrak—$9,400 (Model Rank: 5)
Also Consider: Lucas Glover—$9,300 (Model Rank: 4)
The Pick: Ryan Palmer—$8,400 (Model Rank: 12)
Also Consider: Luke List—$8,000 (Model Rank: 19) and Abraham Ancer—$8,900 (Model Rank: 20)
The Pick: Trey Mullinax—$7,400 (Model Rank: 17)
Also Consider: Scott Stallings—$7,000 (Model Rank: 10) and Bud Cauley—$7,400 (Model Rank: 27)
The Pick: Nick Watney—$6,900 (Model Rank: 14)
Also Consider: Vaughn Taylor—$6,800 (Model Rank: 16), Corey Conners—$6,400 (Model Rank: 18), Sam Ryder—$6,300 (Model Rank: 23)
Good Luck!
-Steven Quezada, @stevenquezadaTX
