Weekly Primer: The Players Championship
The goal with my weekly primer is to provide you with a one-stop guide to equip you with all of the information that you need to make your picks and assemble your lineups. From course previews, to history, stats, and pick suggestions, this guide will provide a concrete base as you conduct your own research and submit your winning picks and lineups.
2018 Players Championship Recap
We watched Webb Simpson become an elite putter right before our eyes at the Players Championship last year as he dominated the field in a four-stroke victory. At one point, Simpson had a seven-stroke lead on the entire field and took that lead into Sunday where he shot one over in his final round. His final round included an anti-climactic double bogey on 18 as he already had the tournament wrapped up. Charl Schwartzel, Jimmy Walker, and Xander Schauffele all finished at 14 under and tied for second while Jason Day and Jason Dufner tied for fifth. Another highlight of the week came from Brooks Koepka as he converted an ultra-rare albatross on the 16th hole from over 200 yards out from the pin. Koepka then birdied his next hole and gained four strokes in his last three holes leading to a closing round 63. Webb Simpson either set or tied eight different tournament records including largest 36 hole lead, largest 54 hole lead, low middle 36 hole score, 18 hole course record, 36 hole score, 54 hole score, longest consecutive birdie streak, and high finish by a winner at TPC Sawgrass. To say that his performance was dominant is almost an understatement.
Course Preview
Dates: March 14-17
Where: Ponta Vedra Beach, Florida
Course: TPC Sawgrass
Architect: Pete Dye (1980); renovated by Pete Dye and Steve Wenzloff (2016)
Par/Yards: Par 72; 7,189 yards
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda overseeded with Poa Trivialis and Velvet Bentgrass
Fairways/Rough: Celebration Bermuda overseeded with Champion Fine Ryegrass
Field: 145 golfers; Top 70 and ties make the cut
Defending Champion: Webb Simpson
Purse: $12,500,000 ($2,250,000 to the winner)
FedEx Cup Points: 600 points to the winner
Past Champions in Field: Tiger Woods (2001, 2013), Adam Scott (2004), Phil Mickelson (2007), Sergio Garcia (2008), Henrik Stenson (2009), Matt Kuchar (2012), Martin Kaymer (2014), Rickie Fowler (2015), Jason Day (2016), Si Woo Kim (2017), Webb Simpson (2018)
Withdrawals: Whee Kim and Pat Perez
Highlighted by the ever-daunting and iconic 17th island green, TPC Sawgrass presents a very challenging golf course for golfers this week. The 17th hole claimed 54 balls in the water which was the third highest total since 2007 when 93 balls found the water. As much attention as the 17th hole gets, the 18th hole could be considered to be just as challenging. A long Par 4 that has is water-lined for almost all 460+ yards of fairway and green. The course boats 88 sand bunkers and 17 water hazards that can be extremely punishing when the wind gusts around the course. The greens also measure an average of 5,500 square feet which is situated well below the tour average. Hitting greens, setting up scoring opportunities, and avoiding water will all come into play this week.
Weather Outlook
The weather this week comes with a small chance of rain each day but also comes with 12+mph winds that very well could come into play as the week progresses.
Key Stats From Past Winners
The stats that stick out from the last three winners of this tournament and that I will be keying on this week are:
- SG: Approach
- SG: Par 4s
- Opportunities Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Ball-Striking
- Greens-in-Regulation
Recent Performance Targets
Just as important, if not more so, when selecting a roster is recent performance. You will see certain golfers go on a tear and post consecutive high-finishing results. This can translate to good form and a mental advantage as they tee it up the next week. Here is breakdown of some notable players that have been performing well as of recent and have at least one Top-20 in their last five starts.
The Approach
Before I even begin making picks I will break down the field into six tiers A-F. When you have fields of 100+ golfers then it can be overwhelming to scroll back-and-forth and up-and-down when making picks. DraftKings has a useful tool where you can export the entire DK roster with salaries to a CSV and open in Excel which I would highly recommend and then break down the picks from there.
When I am assembling my lineups or placing my bets, I will look at just about every stat that I can while also looking at course history and recent performance. There are certain players that just perform well at certain courses. Webb Simpson at the Wyndham, Zach Johnson at the John Deere, Jordan Spieth at the Master’s, Bubba Watson at any course that he has won, etc. You also have to look at how players are performing leading up to the tournament.
Two other factors that I take into account are the OWGR and the betting odds. Vegas always knows something that you don’t, so when I see a golfer in the sub-8k range and see he has the same odds as golfers in the 9-10k range then he is someone that I have to consider.
The Picks
$10,000 Range
The Pick: Dustin Johnson—$11,400
- Also Consider: Brooks Koepka—$10,000
$9,000 Range
The Pick: Xander Schauffle—$9,000
- Also Consider:Jon Rahm—$9,500
$8,000 Range
The Pick: Hidkei Matsuyama—$8,300
- Also Consider: Tommy Fleetwood—$8,800 and Patrick Cantlay—$8,700
$7,000 Range
The Pick: Paul Casey—$7,900
- Also Consider: Lucas Glover—$7,100 and Gary Woodland—$7,500
Below $7,000 Range
The Pick: Jason Kokrak—$6,700
- Also Consider: Sunjae Im—$6,800, Vaughn Taylor—$6,300, Russell Knox—$6,900, Russell Henley—$6,900
Good Luck!
-Steven Quezada, @stevenquezadaTX
