Weekly Primer: The Masters
The goal with my weekly primer is to provide you with a one-stop guide to equip you with all of the information that you need to make your picks and assemble your lineups. From course previews, to history, stats, and pick suggestions, this guide will provide a concrete base as you conduct your own research and submit your winning picks and lineups.
2018 Masters Recap
Patrick Reed left Augusta National with his first green jacket as he outlasted Rickie Fowler and a late charge by Jordan Spieth to claim his first major at the Masters. Spieth almost mounted an epic comeback as he shot a 64 on Sunday that included nine birdies and was bogey-free before bogeying the 18th hole. Fowler put the pressure on Reed as he stuck his approach shot on 18 inside five feet and birdied to card a 67. Reed was able to hit some clutch shots that allowed him to endure the pressure from the loud cheers from Spieth’s gallery as it echoed through the trees of Augusta National. Reed also had to battle with Rory McIlroy in the final round pairing in a Ryder Cup rematch. It was an impressive win, not only because it was a major event, but just because of all of the elements and narratives going into the final day: Reed having gone to Augusta State University with a lot of support, being paired up with Rory, and being chased by Rickie and Spieth. It was one of the most exciting finishes in recent Masters history and hopefully we get something similar again this year.
Course Preview
Dates: April 11-14
Where: Augusta, Georiga
Course: Augusta National Golf Club
Architect: Alister MacKenzie and Robert Tyre Jones, Jr. (1932)
Par/Yards: Par 72; 7,475 yards
Greens: Bentgrass
Fairways/Rough: Ryegrass
Field: 87; Top 50 & Ties After 36 Holes and players within 10 strokes of the leader make the cut
Defending Champion: Patrick Reed
Purse: $11,000,000 ($1,980,000 to the winner)
Withdrawals:
Arguably the most iconic golf course in the world, Augusta National Golf Club is located in what used to be the Fruitland Nursery in Augusta, Georgia. Each hole is named after a tree, shrub, or flower for which the hole is associated with in reference to the fact that Augusta National used to be a nursery. The course is littered with scenic and iconic views while also accompanied with historic stories and nicknames including Rae’s Creek, Ike’s Pond, and the Eisenhower Tree (removed in 2014 due to storm damage). Augusta National’s members include famous names like Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Roger Goodell, Lou Holtz, T. Boone Pickens, Pete Coors, and Condoleezza Rice among others. The greens here are very difficult. Having been semi-recently replaced with extremely fast bentgrass rather than Bermuda that is typically found in the south. Familiarity with these greens cannot be stressed enough this week. There are 44 bunkers and 6 water hazards placed among the 18 holes that spreads over 140 acres. Knowing where to place the ball off the tee and into the green are more important this week than any other tournament that the Tour will play at this season. The course is highlighted by the Par 3 12th hole as golfers attempt to evade Rae’s Creek and maneuver unpredictable wind conditions.
Weather Outlook
Rain is in the forecast early in the week but should begin to dry out on Wednesday. There are also high chances of rain on Saturday and Sunday that could bring about difficult conditions. Look for those players that can grind out through difficult conditions to make some runs and place themselves nicely towards the top of the leaderboard.
Course History Targets
Course history can be extremely insightful when evaluating how a course fits a particular player and if a player has “an eye” for the course itself. Here is a breakdown of some notable players that have performed well and finished inside the Top-30 at this tournament in the past. **Important to note that I am weighing course history much more this week than in other tournaments**.
Recent Performance Targets
Just as important, if not more so, when selecting a roster is recent performance. You will see certain golfers go on a tear and post consecutive high-finishing results. This can translate to good form and a mental advantage as they tee it up the next week. Here is breakdown of some notable players that have been performing well as of recent and have at least one Top-20 in their last five starts. **Important to note that Since 2011, the winner of the Masters has posted at least a Top 3 finish prior to the Masters, nine of the last eleven winners have played in at least six tournaments prior to the Masters that year, and playing the week before has also correlated to success at the Masters**.
The Approach
Before I even begin making picks I will break down the field into six tiers A-F. When you have fields of 100+ golfers then it can be overwhelming to scroll back-and-forth and up-and-down when making picks. DraftKings has a useful tool where you can export the entire DK roster with salaries to a CSV and open in Excel which I would highly recommend and then break down the picks from there.
When I am assembling my lineups or placing my bets, I will look at just about every stat that I can while also looking at course history and recent performance. There are certain players that just perform well at certain courses. You also have to look at how players are performing leading up to the tournament.
Two other factors that I take into account are the OWGR and the betting odds. Vegas always knows something that you don’t, so when I see a golfer in the sub-8k range and see he has the same odds as golfers in the 9-10k range then he is someone that I have to consider.
Key Stats From Past Winners
The stats that stick out from the last three winners of this tournament and that I will be keying on this week are:
- SG: Approach
- Greens-in-Regulation
- Opportunities Gained
- Bogey Avoidance
- SG: Par 4
- SG: Par 5
- SG: Putting on Bentgrass
The Picks
$10,000 Range
The Pick: Justin Rose—$10,800
Also Consider: Dustin Johnson—$11,300
$9,000 Range
The Pick: Rickie Fowler—$9,700
Also Consider: Tommy Fleetwood—$9,200
$8,000 Range
The Pick: Xander Schauffele—$8,500
Also Consider: Jordan Spieth—$8,900 and Hideki Matsuyama—$8,700
$7,000 Range
The Pick: Henrik Stenson—$7,600 (Model Rank: 17)
Also Consider: Patrick Cantlay—$7,700; Gary Woodland—$7,500; and Charles Howell III—$7,000
Below $7,000 Range
The Pick: Kevin Kisner—$6,700
Also Consider: Corey Conners—$6,600; Emiliano Grillo—$6,600; Zach Jonhson—$6,900; and Keith Mitchell $6,800
Good Luck!
-Steven Quezada, @stevenquezadaTX
