Golf

Steven’s Weekly PGA Primer: Charles Schwab Challenge

by
Steven Quezada
May 21, 2019

Weekly Primer: Charles Schwab Challenge

The goal with my weekly primer is to provide you with a one-stop guide to equip you with all of the information that you need to make your picks and assemble your lineups. From course previews, to history, stats, and pick suggestions, this guide will provide a concrete base as you conduct your own research and submit your winning picks and lineups.

Course Preview

Dates: May 23-26

Where: Fort Worth, Texas

Course: Colonial Country Club

Architect: John Bredemus and Perry Maxwell

Par/Yards: Par 70; 7,209 yards

Greens: Bentgrass

Fairways/Rough: Tifway/Bermuda

Field: 122

Cut: Top 70 and ties after 36 holes

Defending Champion: Justin Rose

Purse: $7,300,000 ($1,314,000 to the winner)

Withdrawals: Patrick Reed, Alex Noren, Ryan Moore

Although this tournament seems to change names every year, the Colonial Country Club is the longest host of a running tournament on the PGA Tour. Better known as “The Colonial”, the official name of this tournament is the Charles Schwab Challenge. You may remember it by other names such as the Dean and Deluca, Fort Worth Invitational, or the Colonial. Either way, the Tour makes its second stop in Texas in the last three weeks.

Colonial Country Club played as the 20^th most difficult course last year. The course plays as a Par 70 and does not require a player to overpower the course in order to win as evidenced by wins here by Kevin Kisner and Jordan Spieth over the last few years. Zach Johnson, who is not known for his length, has also won here and holds that 72 hole course record. The two Par 5s only generate nine eagles last year so hitting the small greens will be much more important than bombing the fairways. The fairways are tight and the rough is penal so hitting approaches into the bentgrass greens from the short grass will be at a premium this week. As with any Par 70 course, ability to score on Par 4s is crucial as is proximity as golfer maneuver the 84 bunkers and 4 water hazards found throughout the 89 acres that is Colonial Country Club. There are many ways to win here as evidenced by the statistical categories from prior winners. One constant is being able to navigate bending fairways from the short grass.

Weather Outlook

It would not be a golf tournament in Texas without wind affecting the play of the course. Wind already looks like an early factor to consider this week. The Dallas/Fort Worth metroplex has received record rainfall over the last several months and received 3-5 inches over the last week. However, the course should be dry and receptive for the tournament this week.

Course History Targets

Course history can be extremely insightful when evaluating how a course fits a particular player and if a player has “an eye” for the course itself. Here is a breakdown of some notable players that have performed well and finished inside the Top-30 at this tournament in the past.

Recent Performance Targets

Just as important, if not more so, when selecting a roster is recent performance. You will see certain golfers go on a tear and post consecutive high-finishing results. This can translate to good form and a mental advantage as they tee it up the next week. Here is breakdown of some notable players that have been performing well as of recent and have at least one Top-20 in their last five starts.

The Approach

Before I even begin making picks I will break down the field into six tiers A-F. When you have fields of 100+ golfers then it can be overwhelming to scroll back-and-forth and up-and-down when making picks. DraftKings has a useful tool where you can export the entire DK roster with salaries to a CSV and open in Excel which I would highly recommend and then break down the picks from there.

When I am assembling my lineups or placing my bets, I will look at just about every stat that I can while also looking at course history and recent performance. There are certain players that just perform well at certain courses. You also have to look at how players are performing leading up to the tournament.

Two other factors that I take into account are the OWGR and the betting odds. Vegas always knows something that you don’t, so when I see a golfer in the sub-8k range and see he has the same odds as golfers in the 9-10k range then he is someone that I have to consider.

Key Stats to Target

The stats that stick out from the last three winners of this tournament and that I will be keying on this week are: