Golf

Steven’s Weekly PGA Primer: AT&T Byron Nelson

by
Steven Quezada
May 8, 2019

Weekly Primer: AT&T Byron Nelson

The goal with my weekly primer is to provide you with a one-stop guide to equip you with all of the information that you need to make your picks and assemble your lineups. From course previews, to history, stats, and pick suggestions, this guide will provide a concrete base as you conduct your own research and submit your winning picks and lineups.

2018 AT&T Byron Nelson Recap

Trinity Forest Golf Club was the new host of the Byron Nelson last year replacing the Four Seasons that had been the long-time host of the tournament. It received mixed reviews leading up and following the tournament for its “American Links” style setup and, ultimately, the inconvenience of access to the course for those in the Dallas/Fort Worth area that were wanting to attend the tournament (the course sits on a former dump site of the city of Dallas). These sentiments still surround the tournament as evidenced by the weak field this week.

Aaron Wise picked up his first PGA Tour win here last year by shooting -23 and winning by three strokes over Marc Leishman and four strokes ahead of JJ Spaun, Keith Mitchell, and Branden Grace. Wise was the first rookie to win the Byron Nelson since Keegan Bradley accomplished the feat back in 2011. Wise played spectacularly all week with one round of 68, two rounds of 65, and a 63 on Friday. The only trip up he had was after winning the tournament and infamously being denied a kiss by his then-girlfriend in the winner’s circle. Other than that, Wise burst onto the scene and was the second youngest winner of the tournament and set the tournament scoring record relative to par, although it was at a new course. Wise will have to outplay the likes of Brooks Koepka, Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama, and other formidable opponents to defend his title this year.

Course Preview

Dates: May 9-12

Where: Dallas, Texas

Course: Trinity Forest Golf Club

Architect: Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw

Par/Yards: Par 71; 7,500 yards

Greens: Bermuda

Fairways/Rough: Trinity Zoysia

Field: 156

Cut: Top 70 and ties after 36 holes

Defending Champion: Aaron Wise

Purse: $7,900,000 ($1,422,000 to the winner)

Withdrawals: Andrew Landry

Described as an “American Style” links course, Trinity Forest Golf Club is situated on a little over 100 acres of native Texas land and boasts some of the biggest greens on tour. The average size of the greens at Trinity Forest is 13,500 square feet, which is about 3 times the size of Jordan Spieth’s mansion right down the road. This may lead to a lot of three putts if golfers are hitting the fringe or hitting approaches to the green beyond 50 feet. Greens-in-Regulation will ultimately be a useless stat this week as just about everyone will be hitting them. There are no trees, no water hazards, and 88 bunkers on the property so this is course plays as wide open as you will find on the tour This is a long Par 71 course and the rainfall that the area has gotten may make this course play even a little longer. Being able to score and setup for birdie opportunities will be key this week given the size of the greens.

Weather Outlook

Rain will be in the forecast every day this week. Thursday should probably be fairly dry although it has been raining about every other day in the area including Wednesday. Late showers on Friday and high chances of rain on Saturday could also affect the course conditions.

Course History Targets

Course history is not considered this week since this course has only hosted the tournament once last year.

Recent Performance Targets

Just as important, if not more so, when selecting a roster is recent performance. You will see certain golfers go on a tear and post consecutive high-finishing results. This can translate to good form and a mental advantage as they tee it up the next week. Here is breakdown of some notable players that have been performing well as of recent and have at least one Top-20 in their last five starts.

The Approach

Before I even begin making picks I will break down the field into six tiers A-F. When you have fields of 100+ golfers then it can be overwhelming to scroll back-and-forth and up-and-down when making picks. DraftKings has a useful tool where you can export the entire DK roster with salaries to a CSV and open in Excel which I would highly recommend and then break down the picks from there.

When I am assembling my lineups or placing my bets, I will look at just about every stat that I can while also looking at course history and recent performance. There are certain players that just perform well at certain courses. You also have to look at how players are performing leading up to the tournament.

Two other factors that I take into account are the OWGR and the betting odds. Vegas always knows something that you don’t, so when I see a golfer in the sub-8k range and see he has the same odds as golfers in the 9-10k range then he is someone that I have to consider.

Key Stats to Target

The stats that stick out from the last three winners of this tournament and that I will be keying on this week are: