All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

What a week at the British Open which saw Shane Lowry triumph in pretty dominant fashion for his first major victory and a victory in his home country. Royal Portrush was an amazing venue and I hope that it is a staple of the Open Champ rota moving forward as the fans were great, the course was pristine, and the R&A did a fantastic job with the event. From a betting perspective it was… not great. Kuchar, RCB, and Leishman didn’t exactly tear things up but from a DK perspective it was a great week with low ownership on both Westwood and Lowry and making the pivot from what I feel like was the chalkiest cash lineup of all time. At the very last minute I switched from a 50% owned Webb to Patrick Reed at 10% which ultimately paid dividends. Onto the very strong WGC field as we hit the closing stretch of the PGA TOUR season…

Course: TPC Southwind, Memphis, TN

Fast Facts

• Par 70, 7,244 yards
• Ron Prichard Design and has hosted a tournament since 1989; first year being a WGC event
• Greens: Bermuda running around 11.5-12 on the stimp (average for the TOUR)
• Average Green Size: 5,400 sq. ft. (BELOW average for the TOUR)
• Field: 64 players; NO CUT AND NO MDF
• Average winning score around -13 (although Dustin torched it last year finishing -19)
• Plays VERY long with 7 Par 4s 450+ yards
• Low scores to be had but many hazards; 10 out of 18 holes feature water
• Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Henrik Stenson, Justin Thomas, Bryson Dechambeau, Adam Scott, Webb Simpson

Course and Weather Notes: Weather looks pretty solid for all 4 days of the tournament as there is almost no chance of rain but it will be HOT and humid. This course, like many, is all about the approaches with those showing up as almost 3x important as the next SG stat (OTT) in the past years of the tournament. With 7 Par 4s setting up at 450 yards or more, the key approach range of 150-175 should be targeted with a sprinkle of 175-200 for the shorter hitters and those going for the Par 5s in two. We want ball strikers, fairway hitters, and guys who can rack up birdies to get to that -13 to -15 range when all is said and done.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200 yards)
• BoB Gained/Opps. Gained
• Bogey Avoidance
• Fairways Gained
• SG: Par 5s
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 yards

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Justin Rose ($9,500) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Rose hasn’t played here before which may give some people pause and his stats don’t jump off the page but I love the idea of him as a core play in a no cut event; Rose stumbled on the weekend at the British like many did, but still finished Top 20 and per his stats, he ranks 17^th in the SG: APP range, 8^th in Bogey Avoidance, 2^nd in SG: Par 5s, and 11^th in Par 4s 450-500; he has been a beast with the putter all year and hope he can continue that hot streak; 40-50%

2) Xander Schauffele ($9,300) → Projected Ownership: 16%; Sure to be popular due to his history in no cut events but how could he not be? I seemingly fade Xander way too often but at tournaments like WGCs, Tournament of Champions (winner), or the Tour Championship (winner), Xander is able to string together at least 3 good rounds to shoot towards a top finish; he’s only played here once and finished 52^nd, but I’m hoping his poor round on Sunday and rumors that he was sick last weekend pushes some ownership down; he ranks 12^th in SG: BS, 18^th in Bogey Avoidance, and 12^th in BoB Gained which is the perfect formula for this course… 30-40%

Fades

1) Tommy Fleetwood ($10,200) → Projected Ownership: 13%; Faded him last week and looked dumb (a guy on Twitter made sure to let me know) but I think Tommy will be pretty drained from not only coming close with a 2^nd place last week but many weeks of Euro play… his price is now in the 5 figures which seems too expensive with so much elite talent around him for cheaper; per his stats, Fleetwood ranks 34^th in SG: BS, 39^th in Fairways Gained, and 37^th in BoB Gained yet is the 6^th highest priced… nope

2) Matt Kuchar ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 16%; Fading Kuchar is never really a good feeling as he’s one of the most consistent on TOUR but like I said with Tommy above, it’s less about him and more about guys around him that I like more… when I look back, I may have missed one, but I don’t think Kuch has a Top 10 in a WGC since 2016 when he came 3^rd at the Bridgestone… I’ll take my chances and go for some GPP guys around him instead

Favorite Pivot

Not many pivot options here this week as I don’t see any guy up here being under 10% owned… If I had to say “pivot” I like the pivot from the massive JT chalk (probably around 20%) to Rahm at around 13%

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Adam Scott ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 18%; Torched me and everyone else last week but I’ll be going right back… not going to “ignore” the British Open performance but why was he using the short putter??? He sucks so bad at putting like why switch? Scott still ranks 3^rd in SG: BS, 5^th in the SG: APP range, 5^th in SG: Par 5s, 1^st in Par 4s 450-500, and 5^th in BoB Gained… still having a great year and I won’t let one week steer me away

2) Gary Woodland ($8,100) → Projected Ownership: 13%; People think that Gary will go out of form after his win like he did at the Waste Management in 2018 but take out his one terrible round at the 3M and he’s been fine… he still ranks 7^th in the field in SG: BS, 3^rd in SG: APP, 15^th in SG: Par 5s, and 3^rd in BoB Gained… I like the idea of him being a Stenson type this week, not needing to flare driver but keep his stinger in the fairway and attack pins from that 150-200 yard range; hasn’t played here in a few years and doesn’t have amazing finishes but is at least familiar with the course; I’ll take 20-25%

3) Kevin Kisner ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 8%; I’m starting to think Kisner is a pretty good “strong field” player as he won the Match Play pretty dominantly but hasn’t done a TON since; he has gained on approaches in his last 4 tournaments but just hasn’t found the putter; Kisner is a fairway machine ranking 5^th in the field in Fairways Gained and while his other stats are middling, he does well on Par 4s 450-500 as well as Par 5s and we need to find some cheaper guys to pair with studs like Rory/JT/Cantlay so I’ll take a shot on Kisner at around 20% exposure

Fades

1) Tony Finau ($8,400) → Projected Ownership: 17%; Ah, so Tony has one good tournament since the Masters and now he’s chalk again… alright then; Finau finished 3^rd last week but lost strokes on APP in his 4^th out of his last 5 tournaments and currently ranks 42^nd in SG: BS, 41^st in SG: APP, 62^nd in Fairways Gained, and 55^th in BoB Gained… he is priced above Day, Casey, Webb, Woodland, Reed, etc… OK.

2) Phil Mickelson ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 10%; He will get ownership because he has played very well here in the past and because it’s Phil… but wow has he been horrible the last several months; dead last in the field in SG: BS, dead last in Fairways, 61^st in Bogey Avoidance, 56^th in BoB gained, and 53^rd in SG: APP… LOL

Favorite Pivot

Andrew Putnam ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 8%; Definitely feels overpriced for this field but his form has been spot on with 6 made cuts coming in and gaining on approaches in 6 of his last 7; he is coming to his best putting surface and comes in ranking 15^th in the SG: APP range, 25^th in SG: Par 5s, and 10^th in BoB Gained; he finished runner up to DJ last year, who stormed the field and if his ownership stays at 10% or lower I like a 15-20% bet on him

Others I like but are more obvious/possible chalk: Hideki Matsuyama ($8,900), Chez Reavie ($7,900), Billy Horschel ($7,500), Jim Furyk ($7,000)

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Keegan Bradley ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 12%; Could get chalky but with the ability to NOT go full Keegan since there’s no cut, he seems extremely underpriced and a great play; hasn’t been all that great this year but long term is a fantastic ball striker, ranks 6^th in the key Par 4 range, and is a rare find in the $6000 range that has legit Top 10 upside

2) Nate Lashley ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 7%; People seemed to have jumped off of him after he won but he ranks 10^th in the field in SG: APP, 29^th in SG: BS, 21^st in Fairways Gained, 13^th in SG: Par 5s, 3^rd in Par 4s 450-500, and 16^th in BoB Gained all for $6,500… strong GPP dart play

Fades

I probably will not play anyone in the 6k range this week with the exception of a few dart throws on Kevin Tway and Thorbjorn Olesen

Favorite Pivot

None

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Hideki Matsuyama

2) Webb Simpson

3) Billy Horschel

4) Adam Scott

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 40% Recent Form, 15% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Adam Scott
3. Chez Reavie
4. Brooks Koepka
5. Gary Woodland
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Henrik Stenson
8. Dustin Johnson
9. Justin Rose
10. Hideki Matsuyama
11. Patrick Reed
12. Xander Schauffele
13. Paul Casey
14. Jon Rahm
15. Bryson Dechambeau

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Keegan Bradley: 90/1

Max Homa: 250/1

Nate Lashley Top 20: +350

Kevin Tway Top 10: 10/1

Kevin Kisner Top 10: +550

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Thomas, Xander, Fleetwood, Finau

Possible Pivots:

Rory McIlroy

Brooks Koepka

Jordan Spieth

Paul Casey

Patrick Reed