All stats from Fantasynational.com! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman on Twitter.

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Course: Augusta National Golf Club

Fast Facts

• Par 72, 7475 yards
• Fairways: Bermuda
• Rough: Rye and Bluegrass
• Greens: Bentgrass (Lightning fast; probably 13+ on the stimp or closer to 14)
• Average Green Size: 6500 sq. ft. (about average for the TOUR)
• Water Hazards: 6
• Field: 93 players; Cut is Top 50 and ties
• 18 Hole Stroke Average: 73.59 (+1.59 OVER par)
• Average Cutline over the last 10 years: +5
• Par 5 Scoring Key with nearly 40% of DK points coming from Par 5s and all playing under par

Course and Weather Notes: The Masters is here, and I couldn’t really be more excited… I did an in-depth full course/tournament preview along with analysis and possible winners in my article that is already posted at DFSKarma.com so check that out here!

WEATHER NOTE: It does seem like the course is getting pounded with rain the last few days and it’s expected to continue all 4 days of the tournament (which blows), so I think we can start to give even a little more weight to the bombers of the field and use it as a tiebreaker for sure between players along with really giving a bump down to the much shorter hitters

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: APP Blend (175+ yards)
• SG: OTT (emphasis on Driving Distance)
• SG: Putting (emphasis on FAST greens/Bentgrass)
• SG: T2G
• GIRs Gained
• BoB Gained
• SG: ARG

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($10,700) → Projected Ownership: 16%

Key Stats: 6^th SG: APP/15^th SG: OTT/66^th SG: P/8^th SG: T2G/31^st GIRs/4^th BoB/15^th SG: ARG

Form: 2^nd/12^th/8^th/3^rd/25^th/49^th

Masters History: 12^th/17^th/22^nd/39^th

Notes: As I said in the full tournament preview, and as noted by other analysts/critics/statisticians of the game… SG: APP reigns supreme at Augusta and JT is probably the best iron player in the world at the moment; the putter always is a risk of failing him, but he has now played this course numerous times so he has a better understanding and with such a solid driving/approach game, he just needs to putt above average to be very much in contention

2) Jon Rahm ($10,500) → Projected Ownership: 21%

Key Stats: 5^th SG: APP/3^rd SG: OTT/27^th SG: P/4^th SG: T2G/2^nd GIRs/27^th BoB/37^th SG: ARG

Form: 2^nd/17^th/23^rd/6^th/1^st/6^th

Masters History: 9^th/4^th/27^th

Notes: Arguably one of the hotter players on the planet, along with DJ, right now as he hasn’t finished outside T23 in his last several starts and now has 3 Masters under his belt with back to back top 10s; Rahm should have a clear advantage if the course does play longer/less fairway roll; as an added bonus, Rahm ranks #1 for me in 3-putt avoidance on fast greens over the last 2 years

Fades

1) Bryson DeChambeau ($11,200) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 14^th SG: APP/1^st SG: OTT/11^th SG: P/3^rd SG: T2G/9^th GIRs/8^th BoB/12^th SG: ARG

Form: 8^th/1^st/25^th/50^th/MC

Masters History: 29^th/38^th/21^st

Notes: To play Bryson or not to play Bryson… seems like everyone is going to be on him after he said Augusta is a Par 67 for him and because he’s hitting the ball 5 miles in the air… however, it is worth noting that over the last 3 years, despite being one of the better putters on TOUR, Bryson ranks dead last in SG: Putting at Augusta; his OTT game is far and away the best in the field and has strong long approaches but his wedges (inside 125 or so; for him, inside 300 yards lol) are still underwhelming… I will probably fade because I prefer the other top guys as well as my reasons above, but I’m also not saying he won’t/can’t do well because the guy just won the US Open…

2) Collin Morikawa ($9,500) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Key Stats: 2^nd SG: APP/38^th SG: OTT/14^th SG: P/9^th SG: T2G/22^nd GIRs/53^rd BoB/1^st SG: ARG

Form: 50^th/12^th/MC/MC/7^th/20^th/MC

Masters History: DEBUTANT

Notes: Has looked inconsistent to me over his last few events and is playing his first event at Augusta where I expect him to struggle a bit… I don’t expect him to shoot 20 over as maybe the no-fans/different fall conditions will help but at this price, I’m not too interested with no experience and 3 MC in his last 7 starts on TOUR

Favorite Pivot

1) Patrick Cantlay ($9,600) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 19^th SG: APP/11^th SG: OTT/12^th SG: P/7^th SG: T2G/17^th GIRs/24^th BoB/2^nd SG: ARG

Form: 1^st/38^th/8^th/43^rd/12^th/MC

Masters History: 9^th/MC

Notes: Ranks no worse than 24^th in all stat categories I’m weighing this week, has Augusta experience with a T9 last year, and is on his best putting surface, bentgrass, where he has had success (won at Memorial) in the past; I think Cantlay is a great fit for the course as he’s great around the green (2nd in the field), can get a very hot putter, and definitely has more than enough distance to compete and score on the Par 5s/long par 4s; normally chalky but I think he ends up sub 15% this week

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Hideki Matsuyama ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 19%

Key Stats: 22^nd SG: APP/16^th SG: OTT/92^nd SG: P/5^th T2G/15^th GIRs/10^th BoB/3^rd SG: ARG

Form: 2^nd/28^th/21^st/MC/17^th/17^th/3^rd/29^th

Masters History: 32^nd/19^th/11^th/7^th/5^th/MC/54^th/27^th

Notes: Was hoping he wouldn’t do what he did last Sunday so he’d be less owned but he did what he does a lot… storms the course on Sunday to jump into the Top 5; Hideki has played this course well over the years and that’s even with the horrific putting we’ve come to know and love; he hits a ton of greens, is a great chipper despite never making putts, and although I was hesitant to play him at the Houston Open due to his form, he bucked that trend; I think he’s an elite play in all formats

2) Jordan Spieth ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Key Stats: 56^th SG: APP/65^th SG: OTT/2^nd SG: P/58^th T2G/73^rd GIRs/13^th BoB/6^th SG: ARG

Form: MC/41^st/38^th/MC/MC/MC

Masters History: 21^st/3^rd/11^th/2^nd/1^st/2^nd

Notes: Well here we go again… Jordan missed yet another cut this past week, this time missing a 3 footer on his last hole on Friday to trunk slam; this is just a pure narrative at this point but I’m going to play him at sub 10% on a few GPP teams because the history is just insane… his off the tee game? Real bad; his approach game? Real bad; hitting greens? awful; however, he’s still making birdies, he’s still scrambling, and he ranks Top 10 in SG: Putting on bentgrass greens, Top 10 on Fast/Lightning greens (per Fantasynational.com), and Top 10 in 3-putt avoidance on fast greens… Look at those past finishes

3) Cameron Smith ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 36^th SG: APP/86^th SG: OTT/15^th SG: P/83^rd SG: T2G/89^th GIRs/47^th BoB/64^th SG: ARG

Form: 4^th/11^th/24^th/38^th/22^nd/20^th/18^th

Masters History: 51^st/5^th/55^th

Notes: Always concerning when the lower 7k/upper 6k guy becomes chalky so I’m less excited about this play than I was several days ago but Smith has put together a string of great finishes, and although they’re not all great, has made all 3 cuts at Augusta with a T5 in 2018; he can get very hot with the short game and I don’t think his lack of driving accuracy will hurt him much since Augusta rough isn’t too penal; I will wait till late Wednesday to decide my overall exposure because if he’s looking 15+% to maybe 20%, I have no issue fading in tournaments but he remains a great value for cash

4) Lee Westwood ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 20^th SG: APP/13^th SG: OTT/18^th SG: P/24^th SG: T2G/61^st GIRs/36^th BoB/68^th SG: ARG

Form: MC/30^th/14^th/18^th/19^th/13^th/10^th/17^th

Masters History: 18^th/2^nd/46^th/7^th/8^th/3^rd/11^th/2^nd

Notes: Per my course history ranks/model, Lee Westwood has the best course history of anyone in the field; last played here in 2017 but his run from 2010-2017 included 2 runner ups, a 3^rd, a 7^th, and 8^th, and 2 more Top 20s… pretty impressive and to add to his great history, he’s been in great form over on the Euro Tour with a string of 6 T20s or better in his last 8 starts; I think people have definitely caught on to Westwood this year but I’m hoping a MC last tempers the ownership…. I think he’s an elite value play in all formats

Fades

1) Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Key Stats: 76^th SG: APP/69^th SG: OTT (nice)/16^th SG: P/79^th SG: T2G/82^nd GIRs/56^th BoB/33^rd SG: ARG

Form: 57^th/59^th/13^th/2^nd/MC/3^rd/44^th

Masters History: 36^th/17^th/MC

Notes: Not sure if many will end up on him and I will not be one either; Fleetwood has really baffled me the last few months as he seems to play well in Europe, where he has a 2^nd/3^rd in 2 of his last couple starts there, but in the US has recent finishes of 58/59^th/MC/44^th… his iron game is all over the place and traditionally an elite ball striker, he’s now gaining most strokes with the putter… if that lets him down, I think he will struggle a TON and I have no interest

2) Matthew Fitzpatrick ($7,600) → Projected Ownership: 15%

Key Stats: 26^th SG: APP/36^th SG: OTT/33^rd SG: P/19^th SG: T2G/6^th GIRs/17^th BoB/65^th SG: ARG

Form: 26^th/12^th/7^th/42^nd/MC/6^th/MC

Masters History: 21^st/38^th/32^nd/7^th/MC

Notes: I’m not a Fitz guy as most who read this/listen to the podcast know but he is cheap, and his form is fine enough, so I think he’ll be popular… do I think he’s an awful play? No, but my main reason for the fade is how popular I expect he’ll be as a “value” and although it’s not an end all/be all, his lack of distance I think will really hinder him if the course is drenched and the fairways aren’t baked out to go along with cooler temperatures; Fitz is pretty solid T2G but if he doesn’t catch a hot putter, it’s very difficult for his ARG game to save him (ranking 65^th in the field)

Favorite Pivot

1) Rickie Fowler ($8,100) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Key Stats: 68^th SG: APP/24^th SG: OTT/22^nd SG: P/66^th SG: T2G/24^th GIRs/38^th BoB/57^th SG: ARG

Form: 57^th/28^th/MC/49^th/49^th

Masters History: 9^th/2^nd/11^th/MC/12^th/5^th/38^th/27^th/38^th

Notes: Well similar to my thoughts on Spieth, I’m going to take a stab at Rickie who has played excellent here over the years and while it is basically Rule #1 to not come to Augusta to “find your game,” I think Rickie is more being hindered by a few bad holes/1 bad round more than being a complete mess; his distance is plenty, he’s a great putter (ranks 2^nd on Fast/Lightning greens, 7^th on bentgrass) and as we see above, the history is pretty damn good with 3 T11s or better the last 3 years including a T2… we never get Rickie at this price and ownership under 10% so I will definitely take shots in GPPs

OTHERS I LIKE:

Justin Rose (made 8 cuts in a row before MC last year but had no worse finish than T25 in 8 tries with 2 second place finishes and 2 T10s)

Matt Kuchar (made last 10 cuts in a row at Augusta with 4 Top 8s)

Ian Poulter (made 8 of last 9 cuts at Augusta with 3 Top 10s)

 

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Bernd Wiesberger ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Has played Augusta and made the cut all 4 times with two finishes of T24 or better; plays mostly on the Euro Tour where he’s made 9 straight cuts with 4 finishes in those nine of T30 or better

2) Zach Johnson ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 9%

Quick Hits: Former winner who won in more difficult conditions and if there is a lot of rain and lower scoring he could have strong upside at sub 7k; playing well right now with 6 straight made cuts that includes 2 T10 or better finishes; 7^th in the field in SG: APP, 3^rd in GIRs Gained, 31^st in T2G, 30^th BoB

3) Sebastian Munoz ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Quick Hits: Could be cheap chalk so be careful… but ranks 17^th in the field in T2G, 3^rd in SG: APP, 8^th in SG: ARG; debutant so tough to see him up top/winning but we just want a made cut with upside; he’s made 9 straight cuts with 3 Top 10s and 2 Top 20s in that span

4) Kevin Na ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Never really know what you’re getting with him but has played the course 8 of last 10 years with 2 T12s and making 5/8 cuts; as you’d expect, ranks 1^st in the field in SG: Putting on Fast/Bentgrass greens, 3^rd in SG: ARG and if the putter gets red hot, he could easily back door a T15 or better

Cash Game Options

1) Dustin Johnson

2) Patrick Cantlay

3) Webb Simpson

4) Bubba Watson

5) Hideki Matsuyama

6) Sungjae Im

7) Cameron Smith

8) Lee Westwood

9) Matt Kuchar

10) Ian Poulter

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 20% Key Stats, 30% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of their Top 20 Odds, and 30% of my Course History Ranks

1. Dustin Johnson
2. Jon Rahm
3. Bubba Watson
4. Rory McIlroy
5. Xander Schauffele
6. Hideki Matsuyama
7. Justin Thomas
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Tony Finau
10. Patrick Reed
11. Webb Simpson
12. Bryson DeChambeau
13. Tyrrell Hatton
14. Lee Westwood
15. Adam Scott
16. Brooks Koepka
17. Ian Poulter
18. Matthew Fitzpatrick
19. Justin Rose
20. Jason Day

 

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!

OAD Strategy

Expected Popular Picks

Rory McIlroy

Brooks Koepka

Bryson DeChambeau

Justin Thomas

Dustin Johnson

Jon Rahm

Bubba Watson

OAD Pivots

Rickie Fowler

Patrick Cantlay

Hideki Matsuyama

Webb Simpson

Adam Scott