All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

I feel like in the last year or so we’ve really had an abundance of “non-winners” claim either their first victory, or first victory in a very long time, and that continued this past week with Chez Reavie. He came out and made the most of moving day on Saturday, firing a 63, and had a relatively stress free 69 on Sunday to capture his first win in 11 years. He has looked pretty solid, coming off his career best finish in a major at the US Open (T3) and I will be the first to admit I was on record saying, “I’m not paying mid 8k on DraftKings for Chez Reavie.” Worked out well. That’s a great course and a great tournament, but Hadwin/Kokrak missing the cut due to horrific putting and JT continuing to struggle on the greens sunk most of my week. This week we get what’s a rarity these days in a totally new tournament/course in which we all go in pretty blind with no course history on top of no tournaments in Michigan to compare to either. A popular trend will be to target guys who play well on  Donald Ross designs, which I will factor in a little bit, but mostly I will keep to pretty basic stats and focus on Par 5 scoring, as we get 4 of them, and approach distances that correlate to wedges/short irons as I think it will end up being a scoring fest if conditions stay nice. This field sucks; however, I’m also interested to see how players navigate a new course and I think the tournament will exceed my very low expectations. Onto stats and players…

Course: Detroit Golf Club, Detroit, MI

Fast Facts

• Par 72, 7,340 yards
• New Course/Tournament so NO COURSE HISTORY
• Donald Ross Design
• Greens: Poa (80%; overseeded as well) around 12.5 on the stimp
• Average Green Size: 5,100 sq. ft. (smaller than average for the TOUR)
• Fairway width: 25-30 yards wide
• Rough projected about 3.5 inches so relatively thick
• Field: 156 players; Top 70 and ties make the cut with an MDF
• Expected to be a wedge/birdie fest (I predict winning score -18 to -20)
• Potential Corollary Courses (Ross Design): East Lake GC, Plainfield CC, Sedgefield CC
• Course Fit Targets (not including form/stats, etc.): Rory Sabbatini, Ryan Moore, Bud Cauley, Brandt Snedeker, Jason Dufner, Billy Horschel

Course and Weather Notes: I feel like rain has soaked a lot of the country, but I’ve read some thoughts on Twitter from those near the course/in the Detroit area who’ve said it’s been rather dry, and the course could be somewhat firm. In keeping similar text from last week, if guys can hit the fairways here, they should have 8-10 wedges into greens per day and it should be a birdie fest so target the fairway finders, wedge studs, and maybe guys who put slightly better on POA/Bent than other surfaces. Lastly, I will definitely take a look at who performs well on Donald Ross tracks (via Fantasy National) as a tiebreaker for my final player pool.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150/200+)
• BoB Gained/Eagles Gained
• SG: Par 5s
• Opportunities Gained
• Fairways Gained

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Dustin Johnson ($12,000) → Projected Ownership: 20%; This is the first 12k price tag I’ve seen in quite some time, but unfortunately, I don’t think this will keep DJ’s ownership down; his putting has been so terrible his last 3 events (including -7 SG: P at the US Open) that I think one of these weeks DJ will just torch the field… we don’t need to go over his stats as they’re all elite and form wise, he’s putted bad but still finished in the Top 30 4 of his last 5… auto play

2) Gary Woodland ($10,900) → Projected Ownership: 13%; I’m hoping that people think Gary is too focused on his world tour after a monstrous US Open win that they think he won’t be focused… unbelievable striker of the ball, elite Par 5 scorer, and riding high after a clutch major win I think he’ll come in slightly lower than my projection and think he’ll be just as focused as usual

Fades

1) Brandt Snedeker ($9,900) → Projected Ownership: 9%; I understand that this is a weaker field but still don’t think this justifies Brandt’s price tag… he has looked off to me for several weeks as he ranks 92^nd in the field in SG: BS, 63^rd in Approaches, 89^th in Opp. Gained, and 91^st in SG: Par 5s… he has put up some decent finishes with a 4^th the week before the US Open but his consistency isn’t as sharp as usual… most likely a full fade for me

2) Billy Horschel ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 17%; Tough one for me as I like Billy a lot and he’s been pretty consistent with his irons over his last7 tournaments or so but if he’s going to get to this ownership, or higher, it might be a good leverage fade; he’s a solid ball striker, ranking 10^th in SG: BS, but he’s 108^th in Opps. Gained and 93^rd in BoB/Eagles Gained; I don’t know yet if Billy is a “full” fade but I will monitor ownership and probably be underweight with better options around him/much less owned

Favorite Pivot

Rickie Fowler ($11,200) → Projected Ownership: 12%; Probably the only time you’ll ever see Rickie in a pivot section but with so much talk about DJ killing the field and about Rickie’s media obligations hindering him, I think he could be the lowest owned we’ve seen in a while… coming off a very mediocre weekend at the US Open, the poster boy for Rocket Mortgage, and being in the middle of DJ and a most likely very chalky Hideki, I will take some shots on Rickie based on how talented he is with his wedges and as a putter and hope for sub 15% ownership

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Rory Sabbatini ($8,600) → Projected Ownership: 13%; The Slovakian Savage continues to show great form as an elite birdie maker and ball striker as I would venture to say he’s playing the best golf of his career; Sabbs has made 11 straight cuts, which includes 3 Top 10s in his last 6, and has shown elite T2G and Off the Tee numbers over the last 2 months; further, in the last 5 tournaments, Sabbs ranks #1 in DK Points, which an average of 81 and based on his current form, I think this is a very fair price

2) Jason Dufner ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Unforunately I think Duff Daddy will get some buzz this week and could be fairly chalky but he has really turned things on over the last several weeks; he ranks 11^th in SG: BS, 11^th T2G, 14^th in SG: APP, 18^th in Opps. Gained, 3^rd in Fairways Gained, and 10^th in BoB/Eagles Gained; he MC at the PGA Championship, but has 2 Top 7 finishes around that and made the cut at the US Open; his putter can always drag down his finish but if he can show average to above average on the greens, he has Top 10 or better upside

3) Sam Burns ($7,100) → Projected Ownership: 6%; I wrote Burns up as one of my favorite names to watch in 2019 and I still think a win is coming for him soon; I think in this field, he is way underpriced as he ranks 1^st overall in SG: Par 5s and 3^rd in BoB/Eagles Gained; his approaches/drives can be a little inconsistent, but at only $7,100, he ranks 45^th in SG: BS, and 60^th in Opps. Gained; I definitely don’t see him over 6 or 7% owned so I’m going to try to have about 15-20% exposure to be overweight the field since he can rack up DK points and get hot at a moment’s notice

Fades

1) Sungjae Im ($8,900) → Projected Ownership: 16%; Well the Sungjae buzz is back again and I’m not really sure why when I dive into his individual Strokes Gained stats… yes, he’s an elite birdie maker but his rank in the approach distances I’m looking at this week is 136^th in the field while he ranks 97^th in SG: BS and 137^th in Opps. Gained… his last 2 finishes, a 7^th and a 21^st, have seen him have strong T2G, gained 6 strokes putting and finish 7^th, while last week, he lost strokes on approach, OTT, and T2G and gained another 6 strokes putting… I don’t see that keeping up and I’m fine fading him as chalk

2) Byeong Hun An ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 13%; I know he’s an elite ball striker and just sucks at putting; however, last week he lost -1.5 SG :APP and missed the cut, and his 2 performances before, he actually GAINED strokes putting, gained an absurd 5.4 and 3.8 strokes around the green and still didn’t finish Top 10; he ranks 43^rd in SG: BS, 64^th in Opps. Gained, 114^th in Fairways Gained, 75^th in SG: Par 5s, and 94^th in BoB/Eagles Gained… to further cement the fade, he’s a bad putter on every surface, but Poa is by far the worst of them all; if he burns me, I’m ok with it, but I will not have any An this week

Favorite Pivot

Charley Hoffman ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 10%; Well mega-chalk Hoffman missed the cut… who could have thought? The guy lost -4.4 SG: P and another -1.4 around the greens but still gained on approaches, OTT, and T2G; I’m not worried as he still ranks 8^th in SG: BS, 5^th in SG: APP, 11^th in Opps. Gained, and 12^th in BoB/Eagles Gained; he’s now $300 cheaper in a much worse field and still on his best putting surface

Others I like but are more obvious/possible chalk: Bud Cauley ($7,500), Max Homa ($7,300), Kevin Streelman ($8,600), Jimmy Walker ($7,700), Matt Jones ($7,000), Troy Merritt ($7,000)

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Sam Ryder ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 5%; Ryder is a terrible putter and when you dive into his finishes, it’s astounding how bad he is around the greens; he’s lost SG: ARG in 7 straight events including a whopping -6.5 last week; however, he’s gained strokes on approaches in 3 straight and ranks 26^th in SG: BS, 19^th in SG: APP, 37^th in Opps. Gained, 36^th in SG: Par 5s, and 23^rd in BoB/Eagles Gained; at this price, we just want a made cut with upside and I think at this price you could do a lot worse… I’ll take a shot on 10% or so of my teams

Fades

I probably will not play anyone in the 6k range this week with the exception of a few dart throws on Scott Brown, Shawn Stefani, and Jonas Blixt

Favorite Pivot

None

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Hideki Matsuyama

2) Ryan Moore

3) Kevin Streelman

4) Rory Sabbatini

5) Jason Dufner

6) Charley Hoffman

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 35% Key Stats, 65% Recent Form, 0% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Chez Reavie
2. Gary Woodland
3. Hideki Matsuyama
4. Dustin Johnson
5. Kevin Streelman
6. Jason Dufner
7. Sung Kang
8. Vaughn Taylor
9. Max Homa
10. Troy Merritt
11. Kevin Tway
12. Rickie Fowler
13. Zack Sucher
14. Jaquin Niemann
15. Billy Horschel

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Jason Dufner: 50/1

Bud Cauley: 100/1

Sam Ryder Top 10: 12/1

Matt Jones Top 20: 5/1

Sam Ryder Top 20: 5/1

Shawn Stefani Top 20: 8/1

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Hideki, Moore, Rickie, Horschel, Snedeker, Niemann, Im

Possible Pivots:

Rory Sabbatini

Kyle Stanley

Jason Kokrak

Charley Hoffman