All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Course: Muirfield Village in Dublin, OH

Fast Facts

• Par 72, 7,392 yards
• Jack Nicklaus design and one of his most famous
• Greens: Bentgrass (around 13 on the stimp; faster than TOUR avg); HEAVILY UNDULATED
• Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft. (SMALL for the PGA TOUR)
• Heavily Bunkered (73) with many water hazards (13)
• Field: 120 players; Top 70 and ties make the cut with an MDF (Invitational field)
• Fairways EASY to hit; however, miss the fairway, and the rough is US Open like
• Hard to hit greens (around 60%); scrambling is KEY to success
• Average Winning Score around -12 to -15
• Average Cut Line around +2
• 2^nd shot course with many lay ups off the tee required
• Potential Corollary Courses: Augusta (Masters), Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo), Copperhead (Valspar), Glen Abbey

Course and Weather Notes: The Dayton/Columbus area just had some tornadoes rip through it Monday night and the course has received around 1-1.5 inches of rain… so I’m going to go ahead and throw any firm and fast course narratives out the window… I’m also not going to get started on the “edge to bombers” narrative this week as I really don’t think that’ll be a factor; there are predicted thunderstorms throughout the week and with weather being so variable I don’t think there will be a significant advantage since there may be a lot of stopping and starting, etc. This course is all about the second shots, it favors a left to right ball flight, and we get a more and more rarity on the PGA TOUR which is 4 par 5s so guys will absolutely need to take advantage as they are the 4 easiest holes on the course and just about the whole field can reach them in two. Lastly, you’ll notice in my key stats I put a little weight onto P4s 450-500, as there are 6 of them, as well as Sand Saves Gained as this place is heavily bunkered and scrambling is so key as many will miss these highly undulated and small greens… onto picks for Jack’s Place!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200)
• SG: Par 5s
• GIRs Gained
• Scrambling
• Par 4s 450-500
• Sand Saves Gained

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another. I won’t always highlight the most obvious guys like DJ/Rory/etc. because they are almost always must plays.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Rory McIlroy ($11,500) → Projected Ownership: 17%; #1 in my model, and probably most across the industry, but Rory continues to pile up high finishes despite having seemingly not been in the race much since his win at the PLAYERS; #1 here in SG: BS, #3 in the SG: APP Blend, #1 in SG: Par 5s, #4 in GIRs Gained… not really sure how you can avoid him here

2) Matt Kuchar ($9,400) → Projected Ownership: 23%; He will garner heavy, heavy chalk but it’s for good reason: he’s priced too low, he ranks #1 in this field in Strokes Gained on Nicklaus courses over the last 100 rounds, he is #1 in my course history model as he’s racked up 9 straight made cuts here which includes 3 Top 5s, a win, an 8^th and 2 Top 15s… whoa; his average finish in 9 starts is 8^th!! Form wise, Kuchar finished 8^th at the PGA, 2^nd at the RBC Heritage, 12^th at the Masters, and 7^th at Valero… he is an absolute cash must and to gain leverage on the field I’ll probably own 50-60%…

Fades

1) Patrick Cantlay ($10,200) → Projected Ownership: 22%; I never really play Cantlay and all the guys up top here are pretty solid so fades are tough; however, I will just take an ownership fade here as he could easily rival Kuchar for highest owned; this price tag is too high for me and he’s in the range where he needs to finish around T5 or better probably to pay it off; full fade? Not sure, but definitely underweight

2) Xander Schauffele ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 10%; Like I said above, hard to really fade anyone up here, but if I’m attempting to split hairs, Xander ranks 73^rd in the field in Scrambling and 98^th in Sand Saves, both of which are important this week when guys miss greens; I’ll take my chances and probably full fade Xander

Favorite Pivot

Jason Day ($9,200) → Projected Ownership: 10%; I’ll pivot from the Cantlay chalk and take some shares of Day who people will be off just because he’s never played very well here, despite being a member; besides a slip up at Valspar, he’s made every cut since the BMW last year and is probably one of the better scramblers on TOUR; I think going 15-20% will put you at least 1.5x to 2x the field

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Henrik Stenson ($8,500) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Here are Stenson’s last 6 tournament SG: APP numbers and his finishes: 6.7 at API (finished 17^th), 2.5 at the PLAYERS (MC), 7.3 at Valspar (24^th), 6.1 at Wells Fargo (28^th), 4.4 at Byron Nelson (20^th), 7.4 at the PGA (48^th)… if this guy could BUY A PUTT; unsurprisingly, he’s #1 in my SG: APP Blend this week, while also being 11^th in SG: BS, 6^th in GIRs Gained, and 22^nd in Scrambling; I think he builds on his 13^th place finish last year and he’s a core play for me

2) Jim Furyk ($7,500) → Projected Ownership: 9%; Man I hope this ownership projection stays true because Furyk sets up fantastic this week… yet again; ranking 7^th in my overall model, he continues to hit a ton of greens, 11^th in the field in GIRs Gained, while also ranking 10^th in the SG: APP Blend, 6^th in Par 4s 450-500, and 9^th in Scrambling; I’m hoping people stay off due to his 2 straight MCs here but he made 6 straight before that and holds 2 Top 5s, a Top 10, and 3 T21 or better in his last 10 starts… sign me up

3) Joel Dahmen ($7,000) → Projected Ownership: 5%; I talk about recency bias all the time, but when it comes to golf especially, it’s so variant that you have to look past it… even if guys screw you over as Dahmen did last week… he was around 30% in cash games last week at $8200 and now at $7000 he’s going to come in sub 10%… Dahmen ranks 8^th in the SG: APP Blend, 18^th in SG: BS, and 29^th in GIRs Gained and before last week had made 7 straight cuts that included a 2^nd and 3 Top 16s or better… I will definitely go back to him with the hope that people still have sour tastes from Colonial

Fades

1) Kyle Stanley ($7,800) → Projected Ownership: 10%; He has played well here before so I expect at least some ownership but this seems like a steep price given that he hasn’t done much in a while, ranks 104^th in Scrambling, is a terrible putter, and doesn’t rank higher than 32^nd in any category I’m looking at this week… we all know Stanley could easily shoot 80 the first day and be out of it so I’m full fade

2) Byeong Hun An ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 12%; He took Bryson to a playoff last year, so I’m sure the ownership will be there; however, he continues to not be able to putt to save his life, I still think he has a lingering neck issue, and his last strong finish, a 7^th, came 2+ months ago in a weak field; stats wise, An will always be an elite ball striker and Approach player, but he ranks 93^rd in Scrambling and 106^th in Sand Saves… I will continue to fade until he flashes better finishes

Favorite Pivot

Sung Kang ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 9%; I think Kang goes overlooked around the projected chalky plays of Keegan, Stanley, Hun An, and Glover but he has been hot fire his last 2 tournaments with a win and a follow up 7^th at the PGA Championship 2 weeks ago… he ranks 16^th in SG: BS, 11^th in Par 4s 450-500, 8^th in SG: Par 5s, 18^th in Scrambling, and 25^th in the SG: APP Blend; he hasn’t exactly torn this place up but I like him a lot as a GPP play

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Corey Conners ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 6%; I was high on him last week and I’m going back to him at an even lower price; Conners couldn’t make anything last week, which hurt his finish quite a bit, but other stats wise he still ranks 5^th in the field in SG: BS, 11^th in the SG: APP Blend, and 10^th in GIRs Gained, all the most important skills required this week; he hasn’t played here so course history hardos will be off but at this price he has plenty of upside if he makes the cut

2) Joost Luiten ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 4%; He doesn’t play much on the PGA TOUR so his stats can be few and far between but on the Euro Tour, Luiten ranks 13^th in GIR% and 5^th in SG: APP; this year on the TOUR he has only 3 starts but has made all 3 cuts, including at T10 at WGC Mexico; he remains a bad putter so I definitely wouldn’t go all in but I think owning 10% is fine

Fades

Most everyone is fade down here… I may take a few shares of Vaughn, David Lipsky, and Matt Jones

Favorite Pivot – None

Not much value in a pivot down here this week as I don’t expect anyone to be over 5% owned MAX

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Matt Kuchar

2) Gary Woodland

3) Henrik Stenson

4 Jim Furyk

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 20% Course History, and 5% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Rory McIlroy
2. Matt Kuchar
3. Tiger Woods
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Rory Sabbatini
6. Justin Rose
7. Jim Furyk
8. Rickie Fowler
9. Adam Scott
10. Tony Finau
11. Gary Woodland
12. Sung Kang
13. Jason Day
14. Hideki Matsuyama
15. Jason Kokrak

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Henrik Stenson 40/1

Keegan Bradley Top 10 6/1

Ryan Moore Top 10 9/1

Max Homa Top 20 5/1

Joost Luiten Top 20 4.5/1

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Kuchar/Cantlay/Finau/Tiger/Rickie

Possible Pivots:

Stenson

Keegan

Woodland

Furyk

Grillo