All stats from Fantasynational.com!!! Ownership projections also provided by FantasyNational as well as data and trends from Fansharesports.com! Follow @fantasynational @fansharesports @sscherman

Course: Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas

Fast Facts

• Par 70, 7,209 yards
• One of the longest running tournaments at same course (played here since 1940s)
• Greens: Bentgrass (around 12 on the stimp; average to slightly faster than TOUR avg)
• Average Green Size: 5,000 sq. ft. (TINY for the PGA TOUR)
• Heavily Bunkered (84) with 4 water hazards; very tree-lined
• Field: 122 players; Top 70 and ties make the cut with an MDF (Invitational field)
• Driving Accuracy KEY; about 56% of fairways hit here compared to TOUR avg of 61%
• Home to the “Horrible Horseshoe” stretch of holes 3-5; very difficult
• Average Winning Score around -12 to -15
• Average Cut Line around +2
• Precision Course
• Potential Corollary Courses: Harbour Town GL (RBC Heritage) and Copperhead (Valspar)

Course and Weather Notes: This is a target/precision golf course that more or less mitigates driving distance (unless you’re Jon Rahm) with many doglegs and trouble if you miss the fairway. A majority of approaches from the 150-175 range so mid-long iron players who hit a lot of fairways should be your targets. There are 7 par 4s between 400-450 yards so those players who excel on those should fare well in over a 1/3 of the holes. Further, with these small greens, we want guys with high GIR% who might also excel better on Bentgrass. Fort Worth will be getting a decent amount of rain both tomorrow (Wednesday) and early Thursday morning so guys going out early could see some softer condition. With regards to potential wind and wave advantages, there seems to be around 20 MPH or more wind sustained throughout much of the day on Thursday, very common for Texas, with similar conditions for Friday. Obviously, things can change so check back closer to lock (use windfinder.com or wunderground.com) for the most up to date.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: BS
• SG: APP (emphasis on 150-200)
• SG: OTT
• BoB Gained
• GIRs Gained
• Fairways Gained
• Par 4s 400-450

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another. I won’t always highlight the most obvious guys like DJ/Rory/etc. because they are almost always must plays.

 

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Rickie Fowler ($10,500) → Projected Ownership: 18%; I’m hoping most people remember Rickie’s terrible Sunday at the PGA and forget that he gained in all 4 of the major SG (strokes gained) categories for the tournament; he ranks #1 in my overall model as he ranks Top 10 in 5 of the stat categories I’m looking at this week (listed above), is 2^nd in my recent form model, and has scored the 4^th most DK points in the field, on average, over his last 5 events; we all know how good Rickie is, he’s an elite putter on Bentgrass, and tends to have strong showings AFTER majors… load him up

2) Paul Casey ($9,300) → Projected Ownership: 21%; Probably going to end up being the highest owned guy in the field but it’s chalk I will definitely be eating in both GPPs and cash games; I mentioned above that a corollary course to here is Valspar… which Casey has won 2 years in a row and not to mention he’s 2^nd in the field in SG: BS, 9^th in the SG: APP Blend, 2^nd in SG: OTT, 6^th in Fairways Gained, and 1^st in GIRs Gained; never got much going at the PGA but finished Top 30 and played this course in 2017 and finished T10… potentially will be my highest exposure player with his high projected ownership

Fades

1) Jordan Spieth ($10,900) → Projected Ownership: 13%; LOL Jordan has one good week putting (1^st in the field after gaining 11 strokes on the greens) and his first Top 10 since the 2018 British Open and now he’s the 3^rd highest priced… OK. Maybe he’s found something finally and maybe this is the start of a strong run, but Spieth still ranks 96^th in the field in SG: BS, 79^th in SG: APP, 103^rd in SG: OTT, and 115^th in Fairways Gained… he’s had success here of course but at that price… no

2) Tony Finau ($9,600) → Projected Ownership: 15%; The DFS darling himself has been out of sorts lately, as he ranks 110^th in the field in Fairways Gained, 49^th in GIRs Gained, and 64^th in BoB Gained… he made the cut last week, barely, but stumbled to a T64 finish; Finau could always show up and Bent is his “best” putting surface but I’ll pass onto better options this week

Favorite Pivot

Ian Poulter ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 12%; I think many will play the former winner in Kisner or drop down to the uber popular Kokrak and Poulter’s ownership gets lost in the mix; he won 2 years ago in Texas, to gain entry into the Masters, and has an 8^th and a 5^th at this tournament in the past; I’m not worried about his MC last week as I think the course was too long for him and he’s still had a very strong year and I feel great about him as a GPP play as he excels in the key Par 4 range and hits a ton of greens

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Joel Dahmen ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 15%; Sure to end up being quite chalky, Dahmen is as close to a cash game lock for me as I’ve had in a while; he ranks 7^th in my overall model and to no surprise, 1^st in my stats model, ranking 7^th in SG: BS, 2^nd in SG: APP Blend, 6^th in Par 4s 400-450, 5^th in Fairways Gained, 1^st in GIRs Gained (with Casey), and 6^th in BoB Gained; I’m hoping that he doesn’t end up being the chalk bomb but everything sets up for him this week

2) Brandt Snedeker ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 12%; I feel like few would notice that Brandt finished 16^th this past week at the GPA, and actually lost strokes putting, which is somewhat rare for him; I think few also would realize that Bentgrass is his best putting surface and although he doesn’t have stats like Dahmen or Casey that jump off the page, he is a very solid all around play, hits a lot of fairways, can make birdies in bunches, and has made the cut in all 7 of his attempts here (with a 2^nd place finish back in 2015); I like him as a potential core play this week and maybe even in cash

3) Corey Conners ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 11%; Unfortunately, I think a lot of people are seeing what I’m seeing with Conners this week, we saw him DOMINATE the field at Valero several weeks ago, and realizing what a stud he is; Conners ranks 1^st in the field in SG: BS, 1^st in the SG: APP blend, 10^th in SG: OTT, and 7^th in GIRs Gained; he made the cut at the PGA, but didn’t do much on the weekend, and in his debut at Colonial last year, he finished 8^th; tough to say right now, but he might be a cash game play for me as well and is certainly a core GPP play as well

Fades

1) Emiliano Grillo ($8,700) → Projected Ownership: 17%; This is a difficult one for me since I really like him, but this is a massive price to pay for someone who is getting a TON of buzz so far and has managed to lose strokes putting in 11 of his last 12 events; stats wise he rates out decently, but his one crutch is he’s 72^nd in the field in BoB Gained and with a potential winning score of around -15, I think that are better birdie makers around him

2) Danny Lee ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 12%; This seems like an unbelievably easy fade… everyone saw him dominate on Thursday at the PGA and most have seen him play well at this course, where he’s made 6/6 cuts and has a T6 and T10; however, let’s also remember it’s Danny Lee and that he ranks 52^nd in SG: BS, 115^th in Par 4s 400-450, 95^th in SG: OTT, 112^th in Fairways Gained, and 72^nd in GIRs Gained… people will flock after that performance, this price, and his performance in Texas but he’s an easy full fade for me

Favorite Pivot

Jason Dufner ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 3%; With all the chalk around him as people play Danny Lee, Jimmy Walker, Russell Knox, and Byeong Hun An, Dufner will get lost in the mix even though he’s been slowly improving; his putting has remained HORRIFIC, as he has someone lost SG: P in 11 straight events, but he has gained on SG: APP in his last 3 events; course history wise, he has missed his last 2 cuts here, but before that he has 2 runner ups and a T6; at this price and his projected ownership, there is of course risk, but I like taking 10-15%, being WAY overweight the field and having huge upside if he puts in a performance like he did at Wells Fargo a few weeks ago

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Plays

1) Kevin Streelman ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 7%; One of my favorite players on TOUR and someone who’s been having a great season; Streelman ranks 13^th in my overall model this week, and per his stats, is 8^th in SG: BS, 1^st in Par 4s 400-450, 9^th in SG: OTT, 20^th in Fairways Gained, and 13^th in GIRs Gained… I think he is under priced but this course sets up well as he’s a precision player, who hits a ton of greens, and although I almost never drop down this low I think I may lock him in for cash…

2) Ryan Armour ($6,100) → Projected Ownership: 3%; Not sure why Armour is the exact same price as he was at the PGA Championship in a significantly worse field but here we are; he has the ability to gas it away sure, but he does rank 4^th in the field in Fairways Gained and 36^th in Par 4s from 400-450; he is not in good form whatsoever, but did finish 14^th in his debut here last year; at this price, you can pay up for literally whomever you want and I don’t mind taking 5-10% on a guy with huge upside if he makes the cut…

Fades

Most everyone is fade down here… don’t play Boo Weekley

Favorite Pivot

Adam Schenk ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 5%; I feel like after he screwed everyone a few weeks ago when he was above 7k and above 10% owned, people don’t want to play him anymore at $6,500 and he could come in around 5% or lower… he still ranks 22^nd in the SG: APP Blend, 21^st in Par 4s 400-450, 24^th in GIRs Gained, and 35^th in BoB Gained; as I preach all the time, you just want a guy down here to make the cut and I think Schenk can do that for us this week…

My Favorite Cash Game Plays

1) Paul Casey

2) Joel Dahmen

3) Corey Conners

4 Kevin Streelman

 

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 30% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 15% Course History, and 10% in Average DK Points in their last 5 events

1. Rickie Fowler
2. Jon Rahm
3. Paul Casey
4. Justin Rose
5. Scott Piercy
6. Rory Sabbatini
7. Joel Dahmen
8. Jim Furyk
9. Jason Kokrak
10. Jhonattan Vegas
11. Xander Schauffele
12. Francesco Molinari
13. Kevin Streelman
14. Brian Stuard
15. Jordan Spieth

Betting/One and Done

Betting insights and some options for any One and Done pools that you’re in as well as some pivot options. Please note that these are not always one’s that I personally have bet; however, I will note when I have bet them and at what number. Hopefully you either find better numbers, fade me completely, or let me know who you’re betting!

Value Bets/Bombs:

Brandt Snedeker 50/1

Abraham Ancer 70/1

Joaquin Niemann 125/1

Ryan Armour 200/1

Tournament Match Up: Fowler OVER Spieth (-110)

Tournament Match Up: Oosthuizen OVER Bryson (-105)

Tournament Match Up: Rahm OVER Rose (-110)

Tournament Match Up: Molinari OVER Schauffele

 

One and Done: Note that not all chalk is bad but if you want to differentiate here are some options

Predicted “chalk” for OAD – Spieth/Rahm/Kisner/Casey/Rose

Possible Pivots:

Rickie

Snedeker

Na

Ancer

Furyk