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Course: Silverado Resort and Country Club

Fast Facts

• Par 72 approx. 7166 yards
• Slow Poa Greens
• Field: 156 players; Top 65 and Ties make the cut
• green size approx. 6200 sq. ft. (average)
• Robert Trent Jones design with Johnny Miller redesign in 2011
• Harder to hit fairways: 54% here vs. TOUR average of 62%
• Corollary Courses: Detroit Golf Club, CC of Jackson, Pebble Beach GL
• Course Fit Targets: Phil Mickelson, Brandt Snedeker, JB Holmes, Kevin Streelman, Lucas Glover, Carlos Ortiz, Nate Lashley, Jim Furyk, Jordan Spieth

GPP and Cash Recap (DRAFTKINGS)

YTD Results (Cash) – FD = N/A; DK = N/A

GPP Results – See table below

Cash: New season, new cash game record!

GPP: See above ^^^

 

Course and Weather Notes: After what seems like forever, the PGA TOUR is back! We open with probably the weakest field I’ve seen in years as this tournament due to COVID rescheduling got sandwiched between the TOUR Championship and US Open and the top of the betting board certainly shows it… with Phil/Si Woo Kim/Steele some of the favorites… this should be a decent scoring fest as usual as it’s short, has 4 Par 5s, and the greens per PGA TOUR standards run quite slow. The fairways can be somewhat difficult to hit so I’m targeting guys who score on the Par 5s, keep it in the fairway (compared to the bombers), and have a strong Poa putting record. The weather looks near perfect all 4 days so it should be a good start to the 20-21 season before the US Open next week!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 100-150)
• BoB Gained
• SG: Putting (Poa emphasis)
• SG: OTT
• SG: Par 5s

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

Sam’s Top Plays > 9K

Brendan Steele: $10,000 – Projected Ownership 25%

Stats: 11^th T2G/2^nd SG: APP/11^th BoB/30^th SG: Putting/110th SG: OTT/30^th SG: Par 5s

Form: 33^rd/44^th/22^nd/53^rd/13^th/52^nd/6^th  

Course History: 60^th/53^rd/1^st/1^st/17^th/21^st  

Notes: Course history speaks for itself and he’s been quite consistent both at Silverado and per his recent form, as he’s made 6 straight cuts, having gained on SG: APP in all 6 of them, T2G in all 6 of them, and as shown by his track record, he likes the Poa putting surface… I’ll eat the chalk here

Jordan Spieth: $9,800 – Projected Ownership 9%

Stats: 21^st T2G/18^th SG: APP/97^th BoB/54^th SG: Putting/140^th SG: OTT/3^rd SG: Par 5s

Form: MC/72^nd/71^st/30^th/13^th/MC/54^th/68^th   

Course History: None 

Notes: Well this one could sting… MAYBE he can get his mojo back in this very weak field? Despite not great finishes and what seems like a winless streak that’s been forever, Spieth has actually gained strokes on APP in 5 straight events and in his last 3, normally his best weapon, has evaded him… he’s now had a few weeks off and needs to find form for the major next week, so just find the fairway, kid

Fades: I always love Joel Dahmen but he’s now $9500 and projected for 20+% ownership… easy pivot in my opinion; I will also most likely fade Sam Burns and Henrik Norlander, who are both projected for 17+% ownership as well

Sam’s Top Plays 7-8.9K

Cameron Davis: $8,900 – Projected Ownership 21%

Stats: 31^st T2G/49^th SG: APP/9^th BoB/113^th SG: Putting/20^th SG: OTT/7^th SG: Par 5s

Form: 29^th/15^th/32^nd/12^th/MC/MC/MC

Course History: MC/17^th

Notes: It’s slightly concerning how chalk he’s going to be but I have played him all season and don’t want to jump off in a weak field where he should thrive… he’s very hot and cold in that when he’s on, he’s on as shown by 3 straight T29 or better finishes but before that he had missed 4 straight cuts… great off the tee game, scores on the Par 5s, and just needs to putt average

Tyler Duncan: $8,400 – Projected Ownership 13%

Stats: 24^th T2G/10^th SG: APP/16^th BoB/84^th SG: Putting/9^th SG: OTT/37^th SG: Par 5s

Form: 48^th/29^th/13^th/MC/49^th/53^rd/32^nd/28^th   

Course History: 56^th/69^th/5^th

Notes: Not a tremendously good putter but when his irons get hot, he can rattle off a ton of birdies; has gained on SG: APP in 5 of his last 6, T2G in 4 of his last 5, and despite no T5s here since 2017, he has made all 3 cuts, and has only missed 1 cut since the restart, and that was at the loaded PGA Champ

Talor Gooch: $7,000 – Projected Ownership 15%

Stats: 53^rd T2G/82^nd SG: APP/6^th BoB/17^th SG: Putting/18^th SG: OTT/1^st SG: Par 5s

Form: 65^th/18^th/25^th/MC/18^th/MC/17^th/WD/MC/MC  

Course History: 56^th/54^th

Notes: If we try to ignore the disaster that his irons were at the BMW Champ, Gooch has a fantastic track record on Poa greens and a normally semi-consistent T2G game; he ranks 1^st in the field in SG: Par 5s and he tends to play well in weaker fields

Jhonattan Vegas: $7,000 – Projected Ownership 5%

Stats: 28^th T2G/69^th SG: APP/10^th BoB/85^th SG: Putting/13^th SG: OTT/114^th SG: Par 5s

Form: MC/MC/MC/MC/24^th/17^th

Course History: 56^th/53^rd/MC/10^th/MC

Notes: Here’s my first effort to try and avoid chalk and it’s quite risky… Vegas has in fact missed his last 3 cuts but actually gained on APP in his last 2, T2G in his last 2, and per usual, it was his putter that screwed him, losing almost 6 strokes at his most recent MC at the Wyndham; he’ll be low owned, has an elite OTT game, and can pop at any time

Kristoff Ventura: $7,000 – Projected Ownership 5%

Stats: 44^th T2G/67^th SG: APP/33^rd BoB/44^th SG: Putting/35^th SG: OTT/28^th SG: Par 5s

Form: 37^th/19^th/MC/21^st    

Course History: 62^nd

Notes: Ventura has an 8^th and 15^th in his last 2 Korn Ferry events and finished 21^st at one of my comp courses this week, Detroit Golf Club; he didn’t light it up last year, but still made the cut and in a field that honestly is similar to a Korn Ferry in some ways, I think he can thrive as a solid all-around player

Fades: Mostly based on ownership since this field is weak, I expect it to be very volatile and makes me want to fade mid-tier chalk more than usual, such as: Luke List/Cameron Tringale/Mark Hubbard, etc

Sam’s Top Plays < 7K

Adam Schenk: $6,900 – Projected Ownership 9%

Stats: 25^th T2G/52^nd SG: APP/7^th BoB/52^nd SG: Putting/34^th SG: OTT/8^th SG: Par 5s

Form: 39^th/51^st/12^th/41^st/39^th/30^th/MC/MC 

Course History: MC/14^th/MC

Notes: Under 7k and has made 6 straight cuts in fields that were considerably stronger than the one we have this week in Napa… has gained on APP in 5 straight events, T2G in 5 straight, and normally a solid putter, he has lost strokes putting in 4 of his last 5, which I expect him to turn around

Scott Stallings: $6,900 – Projected Ownership 4%

Stats: 61^st T2G/17^th SG: APP/32^nd BoB/58^th SG: Putting/144^th SG: OTT/138^th SG: Par 5s

Form: MC/42^nd/5^th/62^nd/58^th/39^th/6^th/48^th   

Course History: MC/MC/MC/21^st

Notes: Not known for his putting, Stallings actually gains strokes on Poa greens and before he looked off at the NORTHERN TRUST, he had gained on APP in his previous 3 events; despite not lighting up leaderboards, Stallings has actually only missed 1 cut since March, and that was a few weeks ago… he will be low owned and I think is better than a lot of the names in the 7k range

Michael Gligic: $6,100 – Projected Ownership <1%

Stats: 27^th T2G/55^th SG: APP/42^nd BoB/134^th SG: Putting/39^th SG: OTT/58^th SG: Par 5s

Form: 59^th/25^th/26^th/MC/MC 

Course History: 49^th    

Notes: Total punt that will be under 1% owned but he has gained T2G in all 4 events he’s played on TOUR since the restart, has gained in SG: OTT in 3 of 4, has made his last 3 cuts between the TOUR and Korn Ferry, and he allows you to basically anyone and everyone that you want…

Fades: Chris Baker, who seems to rate out well for most and is going to be 10+% owned it looks like

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 10% of my calculated odds for a Top 20, and 10% Course History

1. Si Woo Kim
2. Emiliano Grillo
3. Brendan Steele
4. Phil Mickelson
5. Luke List
6. Chez Reavie
7. Joel Dahmen
8. Harold Varner III
9. Kevin Streelman
10. Shane Lowry
11. Erik Van Rooyen
12. Doc Redman
13. Talor Gooch
14. Henrik Norlander
15. Will Gordon
16. Tyler Duncan
17. Mark Hubbard
18. Scott Stallings
19. Charley Hoffman
20. Denny McCarthy

 

Betting

Cameron Davis – 45/1 (1 Units)

Adam Schenk – 70/1 (0.5 Units)

Scott Stallings – 80/1 (0.5 Units)