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Course: Sedgefield CC, Greensboro, NC

Fast Facts

• Par 70; 7131 yards designed by Donald Ross
• Average sized Bermuda greens (6000 sq. ft. on average)
• 52 scattered bunkers with 6 water hazards
• Course History plays a bigger factor than most courses on TOUR
• Cut: -2
• Field: 156 players with Top 65 and ties making the cut
• Corollary Courses: East Lake, PGA National, Sea Island (Seaside Course), Plainfield, TPC Southwind, Waialae CC
• Top Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Chez Reavie, Justin Rose, Tommy Fleetwood, Zach Johnson, Byeong Hun An, Sungjae Im, Ryan Armour, Chris Kirk, Ryan Armour

Course and Weather Notes: We’ve reached the last tournament of the “regular season” as the FedEx Cup playoffs start next week and run 3 weeks before a MASSIVE OFFSEASON (of about 2 weeks). Sedgefield is a classic Donald Ross design that rewards accuracy over distance, requires players to make their hay on the Par 4s with eight of the twelve between 400-450 yards. With a winning score the last 5 years of -21/-22, players will need to be able to make 25 or more birdies and the scores are definitely out there as Snedeker fired a 59 in 2018 en route to his 2^nd victory here. In more of a deep dive, I will definitely favor players with a strong T2G game who excel from 150-175 yards as on average, about 27.1% of shots are hit from that distance at Sedgefield compared to the TOUR average of 20.3%. Good luck this week and here’s to a strong finish to the 2021 regular season!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards)
• BoB Gained
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)
• Fairways Gained
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 (8 of them here)

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above:

Plays

1) Jason Kokrak ($10,000) → Projected Ownership: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 39^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 64^th
• BoB Gained – 19^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 13^th
• Fairways Gained – 119^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 89^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 34^th

Last 3 Starts – 34^th // 26^th // 12^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 34^th // 26^th // 12^th // MC // 1^st // 49^th    

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 8 – 15^th // 6^th // 57^th // 16^th // MC // WD // MC // 73^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 3

Notes: Only 5 starts removed from his 2^nd win of the season, I think Kokrak will go slightly overlooked as he won’t pop in stat models and he had a middling finish last week where he lost strokes on APP; however, Kokrak is having an amazing season with 5 T15s or better (including a win) since February and has played well at Sedgefield in the past with 4 straight made cuts with a T15/T16/T6 in that span

2) Russell Henley ($9,400) → Projected Ownership: 19%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 13^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 2^nd
• BoB Gained – 88^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 62^nd
• Fairways Gained – 88^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 32^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 11^th // 19^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 11^th // 19^th // 13^th // MC // 71^st

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 9^th // 31^st // MC // 46^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: We haven’t seen Henley since his MC at the Open but his form is strong with 3 straight T20s prior to the Open where he gained 6.3/3.3/6.9 strokes on APP in those starts… Bermuda is his best putting surface, by far, his last 2 starts at Sedgefield are T9/T31, and he fits the mold of player we want this week: strong Bermuda putter, great iron player (2^nd in the field in SG: APP), and hits a lot of fairways

Fades

1) Tommy Fleetwood ($9,700) → Projected Ownership: 8%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 85^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 80^th
• BoB Gained – 107^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 56^th
• Fairways Gained – 139^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 46^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 46^th

Last 3 Starts – 46^th // 16^th // 33^rd

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 46^th // 16^th // 33^rd // 26^th // 17^th // 50^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 59^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Not sure why Fleetwood is this price as I know he’s normally a fan favorite, but his stats are bad, he finished T59 last year in his only start at Sedgefield, and he only 1 T20 finish on the TOUR since the Masters (2 T20s in total with a T17 at the Dubai Irish Open)… Bermuda is historically his worst putting surface, he’s lost strokes on APP in 3 of his last 4 measured events, and I would much rather play several guys above/below his price

2) Si Woo Kim ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 93^rd
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 124^th
• BoB Gained – 77^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 148^th
• Fairways Gained – 26^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 51^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 65^th

Last 3 Starts – 65^th // 32^nd // WD

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 65^th // 32^nd // WD // 58^th // MC // 40^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 3^rd // 5^th // MC // 1^st // MC

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 3

Top 10s: 3

Top 20s: 3

Notes: First off, Si Woo is near impossible to predict week to week as he may be the most volatile player I’ve ever watched; nevertheless, his history at Sedgefield, and Donald Ross courses in general, should push his OWN% up and although his stats are skewed by an insane -16.8 strokes on APP last week (mostly due to a 13 on a par 3), he lost strokes on APP in all 4 of the rounds, he’s lost strokes on APP in 2 of his last 3, and only has 1 T10 or better since the Masters (Memorial)… I’ll pass on him this week

Favorite Pivot

1) Kevin Na ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 53^rd
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 97^th
• BoB Gained – 13^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 32^nd
• Fairways Gained – 32^nd
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 16^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 23^rd

Last 3 Starts – 23^rd // 2^nd // 47^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 23^rd // 2^nd // 47^th // MC // 32^nd // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 4^th // 10^th    

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 2

Notes: Na is somewhat similar to Si Woo in that he’s hard to predict and can flash out of nowhere as shown by several tournaments where he’s lost strokes on APP yet popped for a T2 at John Deere a few weeks ago; Na can get a VERY HOT putter, he plays well on easier courses, and although he hasn’t played here in several years, his only 2 starts at Sedgefield are a T4/T10; Na is high risk/reward but won’t be owned because of it and makes a great GPP pivot option

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.4K):

Plays

1) Kevin Streelman ($8,300) → Projected Ownership: 14%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 22^nd
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 21^st
• BoB Gained – 43^rd
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 95^th
• Fairways Gained – 23^rd
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 34^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 19^th

Last 3 Starts – 19^th // MC // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 19^th // MC // MC // 15^th // 13^th // 20^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – MC // 72^nd // 37^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Went through a slight hiccup with 2 MC at Travelers/John Deere but then finished T19 at the Open to add to a strong year for Streels who before those MC had gained strokes on APP in 7 straight events and per his stats, ranks 22^nd in the field T2G/21^st in SG: APP/23^rd in Fairways Gained and if the putter is cooperating, he has T10 or better upside

2) Branden Grace ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 5^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 33^rd
• BoB Gained – 27^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 14^th
• Fairways Gained – 112^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 30^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 30^th

Last 3 Starts – 30^th // MC // 54^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 30^th // MC // 54^th // 7^th // 4^th // WD

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – MC // 48^th // 47^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Having a great season, Grace made 6 straight cuts with a T7 the US Open and a T4 at Memorial I that span; I normally don’t think of Grace as a contender in a birdie fest but based on this year and a win at another birdie fest (Puerto Rico Open), I love the price we’re getting here… ranks 5^th in the field T2G, Top 30 in SG: APP/BoB/P4s 400-450/SG: P on Bermuda

3) Brendon Todd ($7,100) → Projected Ownership: 3%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 61^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 55^th
• BoB Gained – 117^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 64^th
• Fairways Gained – 1^st
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 20^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // MC // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // MC // MC // 30^th // MC // 53^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – MC // MC // MC // 26^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Pretty positive I’ve never written up Brendon Todd, but I think he’s too cheap and while the form isn’t good with 3 straight MC and stats aren’t amazing either, he has the exact skill set of previous winners/contenders as he ranks 1^st in the field in Fairways Gained, one of the best putters in the field, and while no stats pop off, he has gained strokes on APP in 3 of his last 5 measured events, and his DK price compared to his Vegas odds are quite staggering…

Fades

1) Kevin Kisner ($8,400) → Projected Ownership: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 120^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 132^nd
• BoB Gained – 53^rd
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 7^th
• Fairways Gained – 40^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 87^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 63^rd

Last 3 Starts – 63^rd // 73^rd // 8^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 63^rd // 73^rd // 8^th // 5^th // 55^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – 3^rd // 42^nd // 10^th // 8^th // 46^th // 59^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 3

Top 20s: 3

Notes: I feel like Kisner is going to be sneaky chalk this week and I have no problem fading with his OWN% and the fact that he feels overpriced; Kisner has had a tough season including last week where he lost almost 12 strokes T2G, lost 9 strokes on APP, and in his last 12 starts he has a T8/T5 as well as 6 MC and 4 finishes of 40^th or worse, which is not nearly enough consistency for this price point

2) Mito Pereira ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 31^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 38^th
• BoB Gained – 32^nd
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 55^th
• Fairways Gained – 47^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 84^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 39^th

Last 3 Starts – 39^th // 4^th // 6^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 39^th // 4^th // 6^th // 5^th // 34^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: None

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Mito is a great talent and I have nothing against his game/form as he has posted back-to-back T6/T5 in his young career but at 7900 and what it appears to be the “flavor of the week,” I have no problem pivoting due to him having no course history and some of his stats possibly being skewed due to limited data

Favorite Pivot

1) Sebastian Munoz ($8,200) → Projected Ownership: 7%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 35^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 49^th
• BoB Gained – 24^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 59^th
• Fairways Gained – 67^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 11^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 4^th

Last 3 Starts – 4^th // MC // 4^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 4^th // MC // 4^th // 67^th // MC // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 74^th // 48^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Great Bermuda putter and is hitting the ball great despite only 1 T4 and 1 T3 in his last 7 starts… Munoz has gained strokes T2G and on APP in his last 4 measured events, he finished T4 at the Olympics, and if he can get the putter working again, he has T10 or better upside as the last 2 starts that he gained strokes with the putter he finished T5

OTHERS I LIKE: Jhonattan Vegas // Talor Gooch // Hank Lebioda // Chez Reavie // Adam Schenk // Bo Hoag // Ryan Armour // Kyle Stanley // Mark Hubbard

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Brian Stuard ($6,900) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Quick Hits: At only 6900 Stuard ranks 9^th in my full field model as his stats are strong… 29^th T2G/16^th SG: APP/2^nd Fairways gained/30^th BoB/9^th P4s 400-450/8^th SG: P; his form is mixed but does have a T6/T15/T8 in 3 of his last 4 starts and has made the cut at Sedgefield the last 2 years

2) Brice Garnett ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: His last 5 starts consists of 2 MC, 2 T20s and a T6 as he’s shown he can get a REALLY hot putter; stats are mediocre for the most part but he’s only 6800, will be sub 5%, and hits a lot of fairways (ranks 6^th in the field in Fairways Gained)

3) Sam Ryder ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: In solid form with 4 straight made cuts that includes a T25 and a T3; volatile player that if the putter is cold, he can make some big numbers, but worth the risk at 6700 with his stats above average with a Top 50 rank in T2G and SG: APP and a rank of 23^rd in BoB Gained and 34^th in SG: P on Bermuda

4) Henrik Norlander ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 6%

Quick Hits: Hopefully I’m not being duped by cheap chalk with good stats, but Norlander ranks 17^th in the field T2G, 9^th in SG: APP, 29^th in Fairways Gained, and 26^th on Par 4s 400-450… has quietly made 6 cuts in a row that includes a T5 and T25

Cash Game Options

1) Webb Simpson

2) Brian Harman

3) Russell Henley

4) Seamus Power

5) Kevin Streelman

6) Charl Schwartzel

7) Jhonattan Vegas

8) Talor Gooch

9) Hank Lebioda

10) Ryan Armour

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 30% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 15% of their Top 20 Odds, and 15% Course History

1. Hideki Matsuyama
2. Brian Harman
3. Ryan Armour
4. Seamus Power
5. Louis Oosthuizen
6. Jason Kokrak
7. Branden Grace
8. Mito Pereira
9. Brian Stuard
10. Sebastian Munoz
11. Hank Lebioda
12. Charl Schwartzel
13. Russell Henley
14. Kevin Streelman
15. Brandt Snedeker
16. Patrick Reed
17. Jhonattan Vegas
18. Henrik Norlander
19. Kevin Na
20. Chez Reavie

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!