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Courses: The Concession Golf Club, Bradenton, FL

Fast Facts

• Par 72; 7474 yards designed by Jack Nicklaus
• First time played for a PGA event (held 2015 NCAA Championship, won by Bryson)
• Average sized greens (approx. 6000 sq. ft.); Bermuda surface
• Field: 72 players; No cut
• All 4 Par 5s appear to be long but gettable for long hitters with another 2-3 risk/reward Par 4s
• Minimal rough (only 1.25 inches thick)
• Water in play on 12 holes; 73 bunkers around the course
• Corollary Courses: Bay Hill, CC of Jackson, Glen Abbey GC, PGA National (Champion), TPC San Antonio, TPC Sawgrass
• Top Course Fit Targets: Jason Day, Tommy Fleetwood, Rory McIlroy, Dustin Johnson, Sungjae Im, Sergio Garcia, Adam Scott, Justin Thomas, Hideki Matsuyama, Matt Kuchar

Course and Weather Notes: Congrats are certainly in order for Max Homa as he captures a win over Tony Finau in a playoff in what he says is his “home course” and good on him for holding strong through the windy conditions and ultimately getting it done late Sunday. This week we turn to a new course as with COVID still rampant around the world. The tour is skipping the trip to Mexico and going straight to the Florida swing to a course designed by Nicklaus (and Tony Jacklin) that measures almost 7500 yards with a lot of trouble lurking (12 holes feature water). I think a popular narrative, that I am also using, is to find comp courses that feature longer layouts, Bermuda grass, and Nicklaus designs and while I think those are useful with no course history present, I would caution you to weigh it too heavily as it’s still a guessing game at the end of the day and while I think the layout should force a ton of wedges for both longer and shorter hitters, we’ve seen the likes of DJ/Rahm/Bryson/Rory simply overpower courses like this and rack up a ton of birdies with ease. I will be focusing on SG: APP, as I do every week, and putting some emphasis on the wedge play and also factoring in players’ around the green game and sand saves. Stats like “sand saves” can certainly be noisy, but I think it’s worth looking at if nothing else as a tie breaker with 73 around the course and typically Nicklaus-designed tracks half tough up and downs around the greens as seen as PGA National, Muirfield, etc. With it being a no cut event, the swings are even more intense than normal as guys can go from 50^th to 5^th in a single day and with no cut I tend to shy away from cash games/double ups as the edge of getting 6/6 is gone. Onto the picks and the loaded WGC field! Note that with no course history I made a “course fit rank” using comp courses listed above to get a feel for the players I like as core plays this week.

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: Approach
• SG: OTT
• Birdie or Better %
• SG: Putting (Bermuda Emphasis)
• SG: T2G
• SG: ARG/Sand Saves Gained

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

9K and Above:

Plays

1) Justin Thomas ($10,500) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 7^th SG: APP/36^th SG: OTT/2^nd BoB/29^th SG: P/14^th SG: T2G/22^nd SG: ARG and SS

Form: MC/13^th/MC/3^rd/12^th

Course Fit Rank: 8^th

Notes: Obviously a guess, but I’m going to chalk up that performance last week to some lingering effects from his grandfather’s death as JT didn’t look like himself and saw his first MC since June of 2020; still the best iron player in the world right now, I don’t expect him to lose nearly 6 strokes putting in 2 rounds again, he is much better on Bermuda and I believe 9 of his 13 wins are in no cut events

2) Collin Morikawa ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 1^st SG: APP/34^th SG: OTT/21^st BoB/65^th SG: P/5^th SG: T2G/29^th SG: ARG and SS

Form: 43^rd/68^th/7^th/7^th/10^th

Course Fit Rank: 33^rd

Notes: I was off Morikawa last week as I didn’t like the rumors of his new putting grip, which proved to be true as he lost nearly EIGHT strokes putting while subsequently putting on a ball striking clinic; he’s not a great putter long-term either, but I like his prowess for big field events, he won on a Nicklaus track last year (Muirfield), and is one of my favorite DFS plays and bets of the week

Fades

1) Bryson DeChambeau ($9,900) → Projected Ownership: 13%

Key Stats: 32^nd SG: APP/1^st SG: OTT/23^rd BoB/45^th SG: P/7^th SG: T2G/31^st SG: ARG and SS

Form: MC/18^th/7^th

Course Fit Rank: 23^rd

Notes: Since this week is a lot of guesswork with a new course, I could be totally wrong and Bryson could overpower the course and win by 5… well within his range of outcomes; however, I don’t trust his wedge game despite his massive driving distance, as he’s lost on SG: APP in his last 2 tournaments, the putter has gone cold, and I would rather play several guys above/below his price

2) Brooks Koepka ($9,500) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 15^th SG: APP/13^th SG: OTT/7^th BoB/25^th SG: P/13^th SG: T2G/26^th SG: ARG and SS

Form: 38^th/1^st/MC/MC/MC

Course Fit Rank: 25^th

Notes: I rarely play Brooks and even more rare do I get him right when I do… I never can gauge where he is as he missed 3 cuts, then won by gaining 9.2 strokes T2G and 6.1 on APP… then at the Genesis lost strokes on APP, lost strokes putting so much like Bryson, I will go down to the likes of Morikawa/Reed/Berger or up to Hatton/Finau instead of trying to guess if Brooks is clicking this week

 Favorite Pivot

1) Tyrrell Hatton ($9,600) → Projected Ownership: 12%

Key Stats: 5^th SG: APP/21^st SG: OTT/35^th BoB/17^th SG: P/16^th SG: T2G/46^th SG: ARG and SS

Form: 6^th/22^nd/1^st/8^th

Course Fit Rank: 15^th

Notes: I think Hatton could come in much higher than I have projected right now, but he’s in elite form right now and an amazing play as he has 2 wins and 4 Top 10s in his last 10 starts, is the 5th ranked player in the world, and has great course comps with a win at Bay Hill and one of the better long iron (175+ yards) players in the world

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.9K):

Plays

1) Scottie Scheffler ($8,300) → Projected Ownership: 14%

Key Stats: 41^st SG: APP/18^th SG: OTT/15^th BoB/34^th SG: P/21^st SG: T2G/24^th SG: ARG and SS

Form: 20^th/7^th/MC/MC/13^th

Course Fit Rank: 17^th

Notes: I haven’t played Scheffler in several tournaments as he looked off, but he’s now gained on APP in his last 3, gained over 4 strokes T2G in his last 2 events, and has back-to-back T20 finishes; he has a smaller sample size than others, but is Top 20 in my course fit ranks and if this turns into a birdie fest, he can get insanely hot, especially on Par 5s

2) Harris English ($7,500) → Projected Ownership: 18%

Key Stats: 53^rd SG: APP/19^th SG: OTT/25^th BoB/8^th SG: P/46^th SG: T2G/56^th SG: ARG and SS

Form: MC/MC/32^nd/1^st/5^th

Course Fit Rank: 44^th

Notes: I know he’s missed his last 2 cuts, but this is a clear misprice given English’s performance over the last 12-18 months; he’s the 20th ranked player in the world, the 30th priced player on DK, and last year finished T9 at Bay Hill and T17 at PGA National, 2 strong course comps; will be chalky but great value

3) Sergio Garcia ($7,500) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 56^th SG: APP/3^rd SG: OTT/31^st BoB/69^th SG: P (nice)/10^th SG: T2G/7^th SG: ARG and SS

Form: MC/12^th/6^th/47^th/11^th

Course Fit Rank: 6^th

Notes: Burned me last week but with how bad a putter he is, that’s to be expected more often than not; should be much less owned this week, is a better putter (relative) on Bermuda compared to Poa and last week still gained 1.5 on APP, 1.3 OTT, and 2.8 T2G in 2 rounds before his MC; he has 5 T20s or better at the Honda Classic, has won the PLAYERS at TPC Sawgrass and still is in good form even with the MC last week so love him as a high upside/lower owned play

Fades

1) Tommy Fleetwood ($8,900) → Projected Ownership: 11%

Key Stats: 68^th SG: APP/55^th SG: OTT/49^th BoB/24^th SG: P/61^st SG: T2G/8^th SG: ARG and SS

Form: 26^th/17^th/7^th

Course Fit Rank: 2^nd

Notes: Similar to guys like Xander/Finau, people just love playing Fleetwood and he does have good course comps, ranking 2nd, but over on the Euro he’s done a ton of his damage on the greens while ranking outside the Top 20 in SG: APP/SG: T2G and at this price, I want more consistency with the irons/driver coupled with the fact that I think he’ll end up popular by week’s end

2) Ryan Palmer ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Key Stats: 11^th SG: APP/22^nd SG: OTT/13^th BoB/18^th SG: P/22^nd SG: T2G/61^st SG: ARG and SS

Form: 42^nd/2^nd/41^st/4^th

Course Fit Rank: 14^th

Notes: Palmer has been playing great the last few months but a chalky Ryan Palmer? Couldn’t be me… plus, this is more a narrative than anything, but when there’s water on the course, as there is this week on 12 holes, Palmer seems to find it over and over again; his irons and T2G game have been solid, but he’s horrible around the greens (ranking 61st out of 72), which is always a key stat on any Nicklaus-designed course

Favorite Pivot

1) Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,500) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Key Stats: 20^th SG: APP/35^th SG: OTT/28^th BoB/19^th SG: P/23^rd SG: T2G/37^th SG: ARG and SS

Form: 5^th/17^th/MC/1^st

Course Fit Rank: 38^th

Notes: I almost never play Fitz, but oddly enough, he’s a strong player on long courses despite his shorter distance and is a tremendous Bermuda grass putter; he finished runner up at Bay Hill last year, ranks Top 40 in all key stats I’m looking at this week, and normally one of the stronger putters in the world, actually lost strokes putting over the weekend at Genesis

OTHERS I LIKE: Sungjae Im/Jason Day/Justin Rose/Christiaan Bezuidenhout/Billy Horschel

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punts

1) Abraham Ancer ($6,800) → Projected Ownership: 17%

Quick Hits: Certainly a very strong field but 6800 still feels like a big misprice… ranks 24^th SG: APP, 24^th SG: OTT, 30^th BoB, 23^rd SG: P on Bermuda and I’ll give him a pass on the MC last week as he was stranded in Texas and showed up in the early morning before his tee time… 3 finishes of T17 or better in his last 6 starts

2) Rasmus Hojgaard ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Should be one of the few truly low owned guys on the slate and still carries risk; however, his last 3 starts have resulted in a 6^th/9^th/25^th in what were strong fields on the Euro Tour; per his 2021 Euro Tour stats, he’s Top 25 in SG: APP and SG: P and Top 50 in SG: T2G

3) Sebastian Munoz ($6,500) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Quick Hits: Has cooled off since his strong season last year but is now only 6500 and back on his best putting surface; ranks 19^th in the field in my course fit ranks and while nothing pops out, when the putter is working, he can make birdies in bunches and if turns into an event with a ton of wedges, Munoz excels in SG: APP from 75-125 yards

4) Brendon Todd ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 10%

Quick Hits: I never like playing Todd as he’s so boring and his form isn’t great right now as he’s lost strokes T2G and on APP in his last 2, but he’s a superb Bermuda grass putter and despite not having the form of 2020, still made 5 straight cuts before missing at Genesis that included 3 T22 finishes or better in those 5 starts; ranks 3^rd in the field in SG: P on Bermuda and 1^st in SG: ARG/Sand Saves

Cash Game Options (Note: I personally don’t play cash in no-cut events)

1) Jon Rahm                     

2) Xander Schauffele

3) Justin Thomas

4) Patrick Cantlay

5) Tony Finau

6) Daniel Berger

7) Sungjae Im

8) Harris English

9) Billy Horschel

10) Abraham Ancer

11) Sebastian Munoz

12) Brendon Todd

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 45% Recent Form, 5% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 15% of their Top 20 Odds, and 5% Course Fit Rank

1. Xander Schauffele
2. Tony Finau
3. Dustin Johnson
4. Jon Rahm
5. Viktor Hovland
6. Patrick Cantlay
7. Joaquin Niemann
8. Justin Thomas
9. Daniel Berger
10. Ryan Palmer
11. Tyrrell Hatton
12. Patrick Reed
13. Max Homa
14. Matthew Fitzpatrick
15. Collin Morikawa
16. Harris English
17. Scottie Scheffler
18. Brooks Koepka
19. Rory McIlroy
20. Cameron Smith

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

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