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Course: TPC Southwind, Memphis, TN

Fast Facts

• Par 70; 7244 yards
• SMALL Bermuda greens (only 4300 sq. ft. on average)
• Water on 10 of 18 holes
• Narrow Zoysia fairways puts a premium on driving accuracy
• No cut event
• Field: 66 players
• Corollary Courses: East Lake, Harbour Town, Innisbrook, PGA National, Sedgefield, TPC Sawgrass, TPC Scottsdale, Waialae CC
• Top Course Fit Targets: Webb Simpson, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood, Sungjae Im, Brooks Koepka, Jason Kokrak, Dustin Johnson, Adam Scott, Xander Schauffele, Shane Lowry, Rory McIlroy

Course and Weather Notes: From a no-cut event in the Olympics (congrats to Xander btw, the no-cut king it seems like) to another no-cut WGC event in Tennessee that used to hold a normal full field/cut event in the St. Jude Classic, which is why you’ll see some players’ course history with a MC. This course is scorable but also not a lay-up (no pun intended) in that it collects some of the most water balls year over year on TOUR, only has 2 Par 5s, and has 6 Par 4s of 450 or more yards. As is custom this time of year in Memphis, expect plenty of sun and hot/humid temperatures and while I wouldn’t expect a winning score of -20 or better, it still can yield some low, low scores when someone gets a hot putter. I will emphasis T2G heavily this week, which seems obvious, but with the last 2 winners in JT/Brooks gaining strokes ball striking and LOSING strokes putting, it seems to be the preferred route to victory along with BoB prowess, Bermuda putting, and Bogey Avoidance due to the aforementioned water and the need to keep it in the fairway. As I say for all no cut and/or WGC events, game theory is more important than usual this week which is why I highly recommend putting more volatile players in your lineups with a guaranteed 4 rounds (unless there’s a WD) and leaving money on the table as many casuals will use all 50k of salary and create duplicate lineups… good luck this week!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (slight emphasis on 125-175 yards)
• BoB Gained
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis)
• SG: Par 4s 450-500
• Bogey Avoidance

 

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above:

Plays

1) Collin Morikawa ($11,000) → Projected Ownership: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 1^st
• SG: APP (slight emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 1^st
• BoB Gained – 1^st
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 50^th
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 1^st
• Bogey Avoidance – 1^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 4^th

Last 3 Starts – 4^th // 1^st // 71^st

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 4^th // 1^st // 71^st // 4^th // 2^nd // 14^th   

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 1 – 20^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Notes: In 2021 Morikawa has 6 T10s, 2 wins, is the best iron player in the world, and has gained over SIX strokes on APP, per event in 8 of his last 9 measured starts… not sure what convincing anyone needs to play him but even at 11k he’s probably underpriced

2) Patrick Cantlay ($9,300) → Projected Ownership: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 5^th
• SG: APP (slight emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 15^th
• BoB Gained – 32^nd
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 28^th
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 5^th
• Bogey Avoidance – 4^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 13^th // 15^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 13^th // 15^th // 1^st // 23^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 35^th // 12^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Notes: Fresh off torching about 25% of my best lineups at the Open, I’ll go back to the pain; we don’t have officially SG stats but I’m pretty sure that was Cantlay’s worst putting performance in years; nevertheless, his 3 starts before that were 13^th/15^th/1^st/23^rd and he’s gained T2G/OTT in 6 straight events… I like his combo of ranking top 5 in bogey avoidance along with the ability to get a hot putter and fire low rounds if the putter gets hot

Fades

1) Louis Oosthuizen ($9,600) → Projected Ownership: 22%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 12^th
• SG: APP (slight emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 6^th
• BoB Gained – 7^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 1^st
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 3^rd
• Bogey Avoidance – 2^nd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 2^nd

Last 3 Starts – 2^nd // 3^rd // 42^nd

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 2^nd // 3^rd // 42^nd // 2^nd // 18^th // 2^nd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 6^th // 20^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Notes: I need to preface this with the fade of Louis being purely because of ownership… his form is probably the best of his career, and his stats are terrific… I can’t play everyone up here and I guess I’ll bet on the fact that Louis maybe has a bit of cold putter as he’s gained strokes putting in every single event since the Northern Trust in 2020, which is unreal in its own right

2) Bryson DeChambeau ($9,500) → Projected Ownership: 11%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 26^th
• SG: APP (slight emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 51^st
• BoB Gained – 30^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 13^th
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 36^th
• Bogey Avoidance – 13^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 33^rd

Last 3 Starts – 33^rd // MC // 19^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 33^rd // MC // 19^th // 26^th // 18^th // 38^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 30^th // 48^th // MC // 45^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: I’m probably falling for the same trap as many this week in that this doesn’t seem like a spot for Bryson as the premium on driving accuracy and lack of Par 5s isn’t great for him; coming off a WD in the Olympics due to COVID, his Around-the-Green game has been very poor, and his last T10 or better was at the Wells Fargo in May where he vaulted to the top due to gaining 7 strokes putting

Favorite Pivot

1) Paul Casey ($9,000) → Projected Ownership: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 2^nd
• SG: APP (slight emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 2^nd
• BoB Gained – 25^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 59^th
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 38^th
• Bogey Avoidance – 16^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 4^th

Last 3 Starts – 4^th // 15^th // 36^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 4^th // 15^th // 36^th // 7^th // 6^th // 4^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 67^th // 27^th // 24^th   

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Similar to Louis, Casey is having a career year as he’s gained over 8 strokes T2G in each of his last 4 measured events, he’s gained strokes on APP in 10 straight measured events; the putter has been bad but the last 2 winners of this event (JT and Brooks) each LOST strokes putting en route to victory

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.4K):

Plays

1) Abraham Ancer ($8,300) → Projected Ownership: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 18^th
• SG: APP (slight emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 16^th
• BoB Gained – 20^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 3^rd
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 16^th
• Bogey Avoidance – 18^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 14^th

Last 3 Starts – 14^th // 59^th // 4^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 14^th // 59^th // 4^th // MC // MC // 14^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 3 – 15^th // MC // 18^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 2

Notes: 2 MCs this year and one was at the US Open where he gained over 5 strokes on APP but just couldn’t putt… he’s going to pop in everyone’s stat model, but I like that he has 2 T20s or better here in 3 starts and per his current form he has 7 T20 finishes or better in his last 12 starts

2) Corey Conners ($8,100) → Projected Ownership: 17%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 20^th
• SG: APP (slight emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 29^th
• BoB Gained – 59^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 61^st
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 4^th
• Bogey Avoidance – 35^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 13^th

Last 3 Starts – 13^th // 15^th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 13^th // 15^th // MC // MC // 53^rd // 20^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 30^th / 27^th // 68^th // MC     

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: His stats aren’t popping like usual which MAYBE keeps his ownership lower? Small greens are an advantage for someone who has one of the higher GIR% on TOUR, he’s gained strokes OTT in 10 straight measured events, gained on APP in 15 of his last 16 measured events, and he’s elite in the key par 4 range with 6 P4s of 450+ yards

3) Tyrrell Hatton ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 6^th
• SG: APP (slight emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 14^th
• BoB Gained – 27^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 58^th
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 8^th
• Bogey Avoidance – 14^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 18^th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 18^th // MC // 2^nd // 38^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 69^th // 43^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: This price seems crazy… Hatton is cheaper than Brian Harman, Cam Smith, and others despite a Top 10 world ranking… yes he’s volatile, but in a no cut event, he can storm up the leaderboard even if he has a poor round 1 or 2; if you only look at PGA TOUR stats, he’s missed 2 straight cuts at both the US Open and Open Championship, but he finished 18^th at the Scottish, 2^nd at the John Deere, and I think he has probably the highest win equity in this mid-tier 7k range

Fades

1) Matt Fitzpatrick ($8,800) → Projected Ownership: 15%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 25^th
• SG: APP (slight emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 57^th
• BoB Gained – 18^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 15^th
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 13^th
• Bogey Avoidance – 29^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 26^th

Last 3 Starts – 26^th // 2^nd // 55^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 26^th // 2^nd // 55^th // 10^th // MC // 23^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 6^th // 4^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 2

Notes: I get the Fitzpatrick play based on his strong showing at this course the last 2 years, but he feels overpriced compared to those around him especially since the irons haven’t been nearly as consistent as usual… he can go low and make a ton of putts, but if he’s going to be 20+% owned, I would much rather pivot to the likes of Casey/Webb/Ancer and others

2) Tommy Fleetwood ($8,000) → Projected Ownership: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 44^th
• SG: APP (slight emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 42^nd
• BoB Gained – 54^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 33^rd
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 21^st
• Bogey Avoidance – 20^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 16^th

Last 3 Starts – 16^th // 33^rd // 26^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 16^th // 33^rd // 26^th // 17^th // 50^th // 35^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 35^th // 4^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: Always ends up owned, his irons/putting have been volatile, and only has 2 T20s on the TOUR this year in the calendar year… Bermuda is his worst putting surface, his win equity feels insanely low, and I’d rather play 7k guys or pay a few hundred more for Conners/Ancer/Webb

Favorite Pivot

1) Brian Harman ($7,500) → Projected Ownership: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 23^rd
• SG: APP (slight emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 34^th
• BoB Gained – 11^th
• SG: Putting (Bermuda emphasis) – 10^th
• SG: Par 4s 450-500 – 51^st
• Bogey Avoidance – 24^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 19^th

Last 3 Starts – 19^th // MC // 5^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 19^th // MC // 5^th // 19^th // 8^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – MC // 6^th // MC // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: On his best putting surface, hits a ton of fairways to make up for his lack of distance, and is having a tremendous year with only 2 MC in 2021, 1 of which was the PGA Champ and a course that you needed a ton of distance to truly compete… 4 T10s or better in 2021, 5 more T20s or better in 2021, and he feels like a safe value with upside in the 7k range

OTHERS I LIKE: Harris English // Sergio Garcia // Ian Poulter

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Max Homa ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 8%

Quick Hits: Strong field for sure but still seems a little bit too cheap… ranks top 30 in T2G/APP and ranks 10^th in Bogey Avoidance and 6^th in SG: Par 4s 450-500; tends to be a little more volatile, so when he’s more expensive it leaves more questions but at sub 7k, we’re getting someone who’s gained T2G in his last 4 measured events, gained on APP in 5 of his last 7 and has had some rest after a cold putter spell

2) Lucas Glover ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 7%

Quick Hits: Won a few weeks ago at the John Deere then MC at the Open so shouldn’t be too high owned… we know Glover’s deal, normally a terrible putter but elite ball striker; however, he’s now gained strokes putting in his last 5 measured events and ranks 24^th in the field in BoB Gained, 22^nd in SG: P on Bermuda and Top 40 in T2G/APP/Bogey Avoidance/P4s 450-500

3) Jim Herman ($6,000) → Projected Ownership: 3%

Quick Hits: Stone min and while he doesn’t seem like a WGC-esque player, his form is more than fine for this price with 4 straight made cuts and all finishes T28 or better in that span; Herman has gained strokes T2G/OTT/APP/Putting in his last 3 events and can get hot for a few rounds and return serious value

Cash Game Options

1) Collin Morikawa

2) Brooks Koepka

3) Justin Thomas

4) Daniel Berger

5) Corey Conners

6) Harris English

7) Brian Harman

8) Tyrrell Hatton

9) Ian Poulter

10) Max Homa

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 15% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% Course History

1. Brooks Koepka
2. Louis Oosthuizen
3. Collin Morikawa
4. Jordan Spieth
5. Xander Schauffele
6. Harris English
7. Daniel Berger
8. Patrick Cantlay
9. Rory McIlroy
10. Scottie Scheffler
11. Paul Casey
12. Dustin Johnson
13. Abraham Ancer
14. Viktor Hovland
15. Shane Lowry
16. Brian Harman
17. Hideki Matsuyama
18. Justin Thomas
19. Jason Kokrak
20. Matt Fitzpatrick

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!