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Course: TPC River Highlands, Cromwell, CT

Fast Facts

• Par 70; 6841 yards originally designed by Pete Dye
• One of the shorter courses on TOUR with reachable Par 5s and 2 drivable Par 4s
• Poa/Bent mix greens
• Easy to hit fairways – approximately 70% of the field hits them compared to TOUR avg 62%
• Smaller than average size greens (5000 sq. ft. on average)
• Short course, but thick rough (3.5 inches) if you miss the wide fairways
• Field: 156 players; Top 65 and ties make the cut
• AVG Cut last 10 years around Even to -1
• Corollary Courses: Harbour Town GL // Pebble Beach GL // Seaside Course (RSM Classic) // TPC Boston // TPC Sawgrass
• Top Course Fit Targets: Dustin Johnson // Bryson DeChambeau // Justin Rose // Jason Day // Patrick Cantlay // Brooks Koepka // Abraham Ancer // Adam Scott // Rickie Fowler // Keegan Bradley // Emiliano Grillo // Brian Harman

Course and Weather Notes: Normally the post-major fields leave a lot to be desired but this week we have a very strong field for a non-WGC/major and it should be a great one as TPC River Highlands can fit any type of player and can play as a mega birdie-fest when there’s no wind (i.e. Furyk firing a 58 in 2016) or if the wind is up combined with the thick rough, we could see a winning score more like Spieth’s of 12 under. Although distance is not required, as always, it’s never a detractor and while the rough is not like the US Open, it is worth noting that it’s quite thick, 3.5 inches, so giving an edge to consistent fairway hitting players is something I’m going to look at when deciding between two similar guys. Focus on the short iron/wedge distances, 125-175 yards, strong Bentgrass (bent/poa, technically) putters, and make sure to filter in not only BoB% but the FNGC stat “Opportunities Gained,” as it measures approach shots at or within 15 feet which is key on these types of courses where players probably need to make 20+ birdies to contend. Enjoy this week, enjoy the AWESOME 2 drivable Par 4s and good luck!

DRAFTKINGS

Key Stats – Last 8, 12, 24, and 50 Rounds (courtesy of FantasyNational.com)

In order of importance:

• SG: T2G
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards)
• BoB Gained
• SG: OTT
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis)
• SG: Par 4s 400-450

Salary Ranges: Plays, Fades, Pivots, Ownership

The players listed below are not my only plays I like but some of the highlights and those I find intriguing for one reason or another.

8.5K and Above:

Plays

1) Paul Casey ($9,900) → Projected Ownership: 22%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 1^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 2^nd
• BoB Gained – 4^th
• SG: OTT – 20^th
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – 4^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 101^st
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 29^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 7^th

Last 3 Starts – 7^th // 6^th // 4^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 7^th // 6^th // 4^th // 21^st // MC // 26^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 6 – 32^nd // 5^th // 2^nd // 5^th // 17^th // 2^nd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 4

Top 10s: 4

Top 20s: 5

Notes: Chalk Paul Casey works out very seldom; however, it’s impossible to ignore how well he’s been playing combined with his course history and course fit here… 4 T5 finishes or better in 6 starts at TPC River Highlands, he ranks Top in T2G/APP/BoB/GIRs Gained and his current form, which includes the US Open this past week, is 3 straight T7 or better finishes… he’ll be mega-popular but is an elite play

2) Abraham Ancer ($9,100) → Projected Ownership: 18%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 14^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 14^th
• BoB Gained – 17^th
• SG: OTT – 15^th
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – 14^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 18^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 9^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // MC // 14^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // MC // 14^th // 8^th // 2^nd // 5^th  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 11^th // 8^th // MC // 56^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 2

Notes: I was lucky to pivot off Ancer last week as he was pretty owned and I didn’t love the course fit for him due to a ho-hum ARG game and lack of distance… now he’s off 2 MC and although the industry is too sharp to be fading him this week, I don’t think he’ll be “wildly popular” despite still being a stat rank machine as he’s Top 20 in the field, or better, in all 7 stats I’m weighing this week; solid form outside these 2 MCs, a T11 and T8 at his last 2 starts here, and a great price makes him great in all formats

Fades

1) Bryson DeChambeau ($11,100) → Projected Ownership: 18%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 18^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 12^th
• BoB Gained – 8^th
• SG: OTT – 1^st
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – 8^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 25^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 128^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 26^th

Last 3 Starts – 26^th // 18^th // 38^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 26^th // 18^th // 38^th // 55^th // 9^th // 46^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 5 – 6^th // 8^th // 9^th // 26^th // 47^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 3

Top 20s: 3

Notes: I have no idea what the hell happened to Bryson on the back nine at Torrey Pines but he saw himself go from the outright leader to ultimately finishing T26 after a back nine 44… yikes; Bryson can overpower any course at this point but with the expected popularity + mentally drained after an utter collapse + still not convinced he can stick his wedges after his mega distance… I will pivot to others around him and hope for a middling finish at over 11k

2) Bubba Watson ($8,900) → Projected Ownership: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 67^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 133^rd
• BoB Gained – 35^th
• SG: OTT – 6^th
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – 51^st
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 109^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 109^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 50^th

Last 3 Starts – 50^th // WD // 80^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 50^th // WD // 80^th // 18^th // 13^th // 8^th  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – MC // 54^th // 1^st // MC // 25^th // 1^st // 31^st // 4^th // 2^nd // 38^th

Wins: 2

Top 5s: 4

Top 10s: 4

Top 20s: 4

Notes: His course history is incredible with multiple wins and T5s/T10s; however, I don’t think Bubba is in nearly the same form as he’s been in years’ past as yes, he’s made 5 straight cuts but his last 2 were a T80 and T50, he’s lost strokes on APP in 3 straight, and seems to be a little too inconsistent to warrant the ownership and price point for me…

Favorite Pivot

1) Dustin Johnson ($11,400) → Projected Ownership: 12%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 22^nd
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 56^th
• BoB Gained – 13^th
• SG: OTT – 3^rd
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – 29^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 23^rd
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 80^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 19^th

Last 3 Starts – 19^th // 10^th // MC

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 19^th // 10^th // MC // 48^th // 13^th // MC

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 1^st // 31^st (2014)

Wins: 1

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 1

Top 20s: 1

Notes: If you look back at DJ’s last 2 tournament scorecards you’ll notice that, incredibly, he’s had 2 triples that have taken him out of contention/near the lead to just disappearing on Saturday or Sunday… while that is annoying and we never know if he’ll “care,” his game is clearly rounding into form as his finishes are T19/T10 but he’s gained strokes T2G/OTT/APP/Putting in his last 2 and as we saw last year, he’s capable of crushing any type of field or course (also elite Pete Dye player)

Mid-Tier Options (7.0K to 8.4K):

Plays

1) Keegan Bradley ($7,900) → Projected Ownership: 16%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 8^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 23^rd
• BoB Gained – 55^th
• SG: OTT – 11^th
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – 7^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 112^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 41^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 17^th // 18^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 17^th // 18^th // 2^nd // 4^th // 23^rd

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – MC // 2^nd // 47^th // 8^th // 25^th // 39^th // 31^st // 18^th // 29^th // 63^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 3

Notes: Chalk Keegan burned us all at Memorial as he decided to somehow lose over 5 strokes ARG to MC but I will begrudgingly look past that as he was on an incredible run before that in all facets of his game, last year at the Travelers was his first MC in 10 starts (stronger field too) where he has a 2^nd, 8^th, 2 T25s or better, and as long as he doesn’t implode on/around the greens, he’s well underpriced

2) Sam Burns ($7,700) → Projected Ownership: 10%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 31^st
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 16^th
• BoB Gained – 3^rd
• SG: OTT – 55^th
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – 42^nd
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 35^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 53^rd

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 50^th // WD

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 50^th // WD // 2^nd // 1^st // 4^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 2 – 24^th // 43^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Burns was so close to making the cut on the number last week as he made a string of birdies on the back but was unable to birdie his last hole, a Par 5; either way, he’s having a great year and this price is much too low as he’s an elite birdie maker, 3^rd in the field, he’s gained strokes OTT in 4 of his last 5, and I like that he’s had a poor finish/MC so it will keep his ownership in check

3) Emiliano Grillo ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 13%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 23^rd
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 3^rd
• BoB Gained – 18^th
• SG: OTT – 103^rd
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – 2^nd
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 45^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 1^st

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 8^th // 38^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 8^th // 38^th // 14^th // MC // 2^nd  

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 60^th // 60^th // 19^th // 43^rd

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 1

Notes: A few weeks ago when it was a birdie fest that featured a premium on GIRs with smaller than average greens, Grillo performed fantastic, finishing T2 so lets go back? We know the story, as he’s been on FIRE with APP in his last 6, gaining over 6 strokes on APP in 4 of his last 6 events, he ranks 1^st on Par 4s 400-450 (8 of them this week), and hits some of the most greens in the field… will he putt even semi-average? Probably not, but he’s only 7300 and he has the upside if he for once doesn’t blow it

Fades

1) Brendon Todd ($7,300) → Projected Ownership: 6%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 112^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 106^th
• BoB Gained – 60^th
• SG: OTT – 92^nd
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – 99^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 3^rd
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 11^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 53^rd // 8^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 53^rd // 8^th // MC // 27^th // 39^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 11^th // MC // 15^th // MC

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 2

Notes: How Brendon Todd churns out as many cuts as he does is remarkable to me… he looked solid here last year too which may end up bumping up his OWN% but when we look at his stats… yes, he hits a lot of fairways but he’s lost strokes on APP in 10 of his last 11 events, lost strokes T2G in 8 of those 11 and while this course can “suit him” with no distance needed and a hot putter, I think there are many more higher upside options than Todd

2) Brendan Steele ($7,200) → Projected Ownership: 9%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 124^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 75^th
• BoB Gained – 56^th
• SG: OTT – 114^th
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – 55^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 39^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 68^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – MC

Last 3 Starts – MC // 37^th // 77^th

Last 6 Starts (or max) – MC // 37^th // 77^th // 70^th // 4^th // 77^th

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 10 – 6^th // 21^st // MC // 14^th // 17^th // 25^th // 5^th // 13^th // MC // 13^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 1

Top 10s: 2

Top 20s: 6

Notes: From Brendon to Brendan! Similar to Bubba, Steele has great course history but his current form leaves a LOT to be desired with his last 5 starts a MC/37^th/77^th/70^th/77^th… so making cuts and then doing absolutely nothing… he’s lost strokes T2G and OTT in 4 of his last 5 and has actually been gaining strokes putting despite historical a below-average putter… I could see Steele being a popular “value” play this week and I have no interest based on his form/current stats (above)

Favorite Pivot

1) Ian Poulter ($7,400) → Projected Ownership: 4%

→ Key Stat Ranks (bold indicates Top 25 rank in the field)

• SG: T2G – 27^th
• SG: APP (emphasis on 125-175 yards) – 78^th
• BoB Gained – 16^th
• SG: OTT – 75^th
• GIRs Gained/Opportunities Gained – 80^th
• SG: Putting (Bent emphasis) – 4^th
• SG: Par 4s 400-450 – 12^th

→ Recent Form (bold indicates Top 10 or better finish)

Last Start – 40^th

Last 3 Starts – 40^th // 25^th // 3^rd

Last 6 Starts (or max) – 40^th // 25^th // 3^rd // 30^th // MC // 21^st   

→ Course Fit/Course History (Course Fit is calculated by a player’s SG: Total on similar courses, listed under “Fast Facts” above over their Last 50 or maximum rounds)

Starts: 4 – 64^th // 43^rd (2013) // 62^nd // 24^th

Wins: 0

Top 5s: 0

Top 10s: 0

Top 20s: 0

Notes: Stats wise at the US Open, Poulter was kind of meh; however, similar to the likes of Louis Oosthuizen, Brendon Todd, Patrick Reed, etc, he consistently gains a lot of strokes with the putter and before the tough US Open set up, he has gained on APP in 3 of his last 4, gained on T2G in his last 5, and I think this shorter track that puts a premium on wedges/putting is perfect for him… as noted above, he played here last year in the loaded field but hadn’t played before then since 2013 so not much course history but this seems ideal for his game and we know he can get REALLY hot with the birdies/putter

OTHERS I LIKE: Doc Redman // Aaron Wise // Rickie Fowler // Stewart Cink // Brandt Snedeker // Carlos Ortiz // Talor Gooch // Russell Knox

Low Tier Options (Under 7K):

Punt Quick Hits

1) Hank Lebioda ($6,700) → Projected Ownership: 2%

Quick Hits: Wasn’t interested when he was sub 7k chalk a few weeks ago but it seems like no one is interested this week at $100 cheaper; Lebioda has been great T2G, gaining strokes in his last 4 tournaments, and while his APP game can be up and down, he has gained OTT in 3 of his last 4, gained strokes putting in 3 of his last 4, and per my key stats this week, Lebioda ranks 10^th in GIRs/Opps. Gained, 25^th in T2G, and 29^th in SG: APP at only 6700

2) Vaughn Taylor ($6,600) → Projected Ownership: 1%

Quick Hits: I feel like I used to play cheap Vaughn Taylor all the time but haven’t in several months… this course suits him as he hits a ton of fairways and his lack of distance won’t hold him back; his form is iffy at best, but his short game has been strong, he’s gained strokes on APP in 3 of his last 5, and if we take out last year that had a much stronger field, Vaughn has made 7 of his last 8 cuts here with a T4/T11; Vaughn also ranks 34^th in course fit as a former winner at Pebble

3) Vincent Whaley ($6,400) → Projected Ownership: 4%

Quick Hits: Was insane chalk the other week around the same price but when he missed the cut it seems no one is interested anymore… Whaley had a bad week, it happens, and he’s still near the minimum, has still gained strokes OTT in 6 of his last 7 measured tournaments, gained T2G in 4 of his last 5, and I’ll go back with the same risk/upside we had before but now at a quarter of the OWN%

Cash Game Options

1) Paul Casey

2) Scottie Scheffler

3) Kevin Streelman

4) Abraham Ancer

5) Brian Harman

6)  Charley Hoffman

7) Sam Burns

8) Cameron Tringale

9) Aaron Wise

10) Ian Poulter

11) Emiliano Grillo

12) Brandt Snedeker

My DK Power Ranks – Generated using 25% Key Stats, 35% Recent Form, 10% DK Points Last 5 Events, 5% of my calculated odds for them to win, 15% of their Top 20 Odds, and 10% Course History

1. Paul Casey
2. Abraham Ancer
3. Kevin Streelman
4. Patrick Cantlay
5. Patrick Reed
6. Charley Hoffman
7. Harris English
8. Keegan Bradley
9. Scottie Scheffler
10. Brian Harman
11. Brooks Koepka
12. Bryson DeChambeau
13. Sam Burns
14. Dustin Johnson
15. Emiliano Grillo
16. Aaron Wise
17. Tony Finau
18. Si Woo Kim
19. Patton Kizzire
20. Cameron Smith

Betting/One and Done

Value Bets:

Come check as out at BetKarma.com where I will have weekly articles for outright bets, first round leaders, and matchups!